Weekly Technical Outlook & Picks by Axis Securities Ltd
Nifty
* Nifty started the week on a flat note but remained largely consolidated within the 22677–22315 range, reflecting a lack of strength. The index closed at 22397 on Thursday, posting a weekly loss of 155 points.
* On the weekly chart, the index formed a small bearish candle with shadows on both sides, signaling indecisiveness among market participants.
* For the past three weeks, Nifty has struggled to cross 22750, a key resistance zone. A decisive close above this level could drive the index toward the upper band of the falling channel near 23200. On the downside, the 22000–21800 zone remains a critical support area.
* If Nifty sustains above 22750, buying momentum could drive it towards 23000–23200. Conversely, a break below 22250 could trigger selling pressure, pulling the index towards 22000–21800.
* For the week, we expect Nifty to trade within the 23200–21800 range with a mixed bias.
* The weekly RSI remains flat, indicating a lack of strength.
Bank Nifty
* Bank Nifty started the week on a negative note and remained rangebound, reflecting a lack of momentum. The index closed at 48060, losing 437 points for the week.
* On the weekly chart, a small bearish candle with shadows on both sides formed, signaling indecisiveness.
* The index is holding above 47850, aligned with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 46078–54467 rally and a recent swing low. Holding this level could trigger a rebound, but a decisive close above the downwardsloping trendline from mid-December 2024, placed at 48600, is crucial for confirmation. A break below 47850 would weaken the structure, breaking nine-week support and triggering strong selling.
* If Bank Nifty sustains above 48600, buying momentum could drive it towards 48750–49000. Conversely, a break below 47700 could lead to selling pressure, pulling the index towards 47500–47000.
* For the week, we expect the index to trade within the 49000–47000 range with a mixed bias.
* The daily and weekly RSI has turned flat, indicating a lack of strength.
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