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Benchmark indices ended the week on a higher note. On a weekly basis Nifty, Sensex snapped two week of losses. All sectoral indices ended the week in green.

RBI’s monetary policy committee decided to maintain the status quo, keeping Repo Rate unchanged at 6.50%. RBI forecasted CPI inflation at 5.4% for FY24 and economic growth target remained unchanged at 6.5%. The inflation outlook will be influenced by various factors such as kharif sowing, El Nino, and the volatility of the global food and energy market.  

India’s 10 Year Bond Yield rose the most in six months and stood at 7.32% after the RBI Governor announced that the regulator will conduct open market operations through auctions to manage liquidity. 

India’s Manufacturing PMI in September hit a 5 month low at 57.5, indicating a deceleration in activity mainly due to the decline in new orders, however export orders remained robust. 

India's services sector PMI hit 61 in September, reflecting strong sales growth due to surging demand and subsequent increase in sales and output.

On the global front, the US 10yr Bond Yield hit a 16 years high to 4.78% after employers data showed that it added 336,000 jobs in September, well above the expectation which indicates resilience in the job market.

US manufacturing PMI increased in September to 49.8, but the new orders declined for the fifth month in a row. US jobless claims came close to recent lows to 207000 for the week ended 30th September.

Global and domestic economic data, FII/DII trading activity, upcoming Q2 earning season, crude oil inventories, movement of rupee against dollar, treasury bond yields will drive the market in the coming days. Market will take further cues from major global events such as Eurozone inflation data, US PPI, Initial jobless claims, FOMC Meeting, crude oil, OPEC report UK GDP, Trade balance, China CPI, PPI, trade balance and many more. Domestic economic data points like India CPI, WPI data, forex reserves, trade balance will also be in focus.

On Friday, the Nifty index closed with a significant gain of 108 points, forming a bullish Doji candle on the daily chart, indicating a potential reversal or continuation of the uptrend. Moreover, on the weekly scale, a Dragonfly Doji pattern was observed, which is typically considered a bullish signal. This suggests that the short-term trend for Nifty has turned positive. Looking ahead, the chart pattern indicates that Nifty may encounter resistance at around 19,800 levels in the coming week.

As for Bank Nifty, it is crucial to keep an eye on the 44,000 level, which is identified as a key support zone. If Bank Nifty manages to stay above this level, there is potential for a rally towards the range of 44,800 to 45,000. However, it's important to note that if Bank Nifty falls below the 44,000 to 43,800 range, the current uptrend in the index may become vulnerable. Therefore, market participants should closely monitor these levels to make informed trading decisions in the banking sector.