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Below the Weekly commodity outlook By Aamir Makda, Currency & Commodity analyst, Choice Broking.

COPPER:

Copper prices were on course for a weekly loss on Friday due to a strong dollar, large stockpiles, and reduced risk appetite following the announcement by the US Federal Reserve that monetary policy will stay tight for an extended period of time. The final price for MCX Copper stood at 714. At the London Metal Exchange (LME), the three-month copper closed at $8,222 per metric ton. Technically, the 50-day moving average resistance at $8,262 for LME copper was broken down. Following the Fed decision, the US dollar currency index was on course for its 10th straight weekly advance, making dollar-priced commodities less appealing to holders of other currencies. Analysing the Weekly chart, it is observed that the 100-EMA is positioned at 731.4, which is serving as an resistance level. If the price maintain itself below this threshold, a decline towards the 700 level can be anticipated in subsequent trading sessions. However, if the price manages to breaks below 712, there is a possibility of an downward movement towards the 702-690 levels

GOLD:

The MCX Gold Futures settled slightly higher on Friday, at 58946. On Friday, lower T-note yields boosted precious metals. On the other hand, Comex Gold found resistance at levels near $1947 and settled near $1945. On Friday, the dollar index DXY increased by +0.19%. On carryover support from Wednesday, when the FOMC suggested one more +25 bp rate hike this year and anticipated that the fed funds rate would be +50 bp higher than its June prediction, the dollar surged to a fresh 6-1/2 month high on Friday. Metals gains were restricted by the dollar index's rise to a 6-1/2 month high on Friday. Furthermore, hawkish central bank statements are unfavorable for precious metals as Boston Fed President Collins stated, "I expect rates to remain higher, and for a longer period of time, than previous projections had suggested.” Technically, the price of gold has found  support from the rising trendline, as well as resistance at its important 100-EMA of 58970. On the Daily chart, the RSI stays above the levels considered safe for accumulation, indicating short-term strength. On the daily chart, gold is building a symmetrical triangular formation, with the rising trendline projected to provide support near 58750 levels. If this holds, we may expect to see 59250-59500 levels in the next sessions.

SILVER:

Prices of precious metals Friday ended slightly higher, with Silver reaching a two-week high. The final price for MCX Silver stood at 73337. Lower T-note yields on Friday aided precious metals. Silver also benefited from Friday's stronger-than-expected S&P manufacturing PMI survey in the US, which was a favourable factor for industrial metals demand. Price appears to be forming a double bottom and is currently trading above the 50-EMA and 100-EMA, which are situated on the Daily chart at 73045 and 72543, respectively. The 200-EMA, which is located at 70960, would provide a lot of support on the daily chart. If we mange to hold above 73045 levels the we can some quick movement till 74080-75545 levels.

CRUDE OIL:

The MCX Crudeoil future corrected about -0.77% in the previous week and finished at 7473. The WTI Crude Oil market is holding above $88 after seeing significant correction from $93 levels and settled over $90. Oil prices have received support from last week's IEA and OPEC estimates that the global oil market will be in deficit until the end of the year. Last Tuesday, OPEC predicted that the global oil market would have a 3.3 million bpd shortfall in the fourth quarter, the tightest in more than ten years.Because to the continuation of OPEC+ production curbs, the oil market is projected to remain tight. Saudi Arabia has announced that it would maintain its unilateral crude output cut of 1.0 million bpd through December. Russia also just declared that it would maintain its oil production cut of 300,000 bpd through December. Russian crude oil shipments fell -9% month on month to 2.28 million bpd in August, the lowest daily average in eleven months. A drop in crude in floating storage is positive for prices. Price appears to be trading in a range from 7350-7570 on the Daily chart. The key resistance level on the daily chart would be 7710. If the price rises over the resistance line at 7710, we can anticipate it to reach 8120, the next resistance level.

NATURALGAS:

Natural gas costs Friday's gains were modest, owing to carryover support from a one-month high in European natural gas prices. Gains in nat gas were restrained by projections for warmer-than-normal fall weather, which would diminish nat gas heating demand. According to Atmospheric G2, the midsection of the US and much of Canada will be warmer than typical for the rest of the month, with temperatures 8 to 15 degrees above normal. The weekly EIA report of +64 bcf for the week ended September 15 was neutral for natural gas prices because it was close to forecasts of +65 bcf while falling short of the 5-year average for this time of year of +84 bcf. Nat-gas stockpiles were up +13.7% year on year and +5.9% over their 5-year seasonal average as of September 15, indicating sufficient nat-gas supplies. On the Daily chart, the price is trading in a rising channel. The price is now trying to find support near the rising tend line, which is placed at 215 levels. The critical support levels would be 211 levels which is 100 EMA above which it can rise upto 230-240 levels.

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