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The Week That Was

• Gold ticked up slightly on Friday, supported by a softer U.S. dollar and a continuing slide in crude oil. While bullion faced pressure earlier in the week following the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike in over three years, those losses were largely offset by falling energy prices. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to raise the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a range of 3.75%–4.00%. The central bank’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, combined with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s post-meeting press conference, pointed to a decidedly hawkish outlook.

• Silver climbed to around $66 an ounce—its highest level in over a week—as lower oil prices helped ease fears of persistent inflation. However, further gains were capped by a resilient dollar, which stayed firm after the Fed’s rate increase and hints of additional tightening ahead. Markets are currently pricing in an almost 60% probability of another rate hike next month. Adding to global policy tightening, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 31-year high while signaling that further rate hikes remain on the table. Meanwhile, Brent crude fell for a third straight session as diminishing concerns over Saudi Arabian supply disruptions overshadowed risks of a broader escalation in the Middle East.

• WTI Crude Oil closed lower, snapping a two-week winning streak that had seen prices surge nearly 20%. The turnaround was driven by growing hopes for diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran, along with fading fears of immediate supply bottlenecks. Crude benchmarks spiked early in the week following the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline—a key alternative route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. According to Reuters, the prolonged outage of the conduit threatened to take up to 4% of global oil supply offline.

• Copper futures advanced past $6.60 per pound, extending their winning streak to a fourth consecutive session on robust demand signals from China. The Yangshan copper premium, a closely watched gauge of Chinese import demand, rose to $121 per ton on Thursday—its highest level since Nov’22. Beyond physical demand, copper was buoyed by supply disruptions at major mines and strong long-term consumption forecasts tied to data centres and renewable energy infrastructure. These gains helped the metal recover from multi-week lows hit earlier in the week, which were triggered by reports that the Trump administration had delayed a decision on proposed refined copper tariffs

MCX Gold

Technical Outlook:

MCX Gold staged a healthy recovery last week, gaining over 1% as prices consistently defended multiple support levels near Rs 1,49,500. However, the weekly RSI hovering at 55 reflects neutral momentum, signalling no immediate strong bullish bias. Going forward, prices are likely to consolidate within a broad band of Rs 1,49,000 to Rs 1,57,000. A decisive breakout above Rs 1,57,000 could pave the way for strong bullish momentum toward the Rs 1,68,000–Rs 1,73,000 zone. On the downside, Rs 1,49,000 remains a key support level, and a sustained break below it could trigger fresh short buildup.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Gold above Rs 1,57,000 with a stoploss below Rs 1,50,000 and targets of Rs 1,68,000 and Rs 1,73,000.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 1,54,260.

MCX Silver

Technical Outlook: MCX Silver snapped a three-week losing streak to gain nearly 3% last week, though prices remained bound within the Rs 2,29,000 to 2,48,000 range. Going forward, prices may continue to trade within this consolidation zone. If a breakout occurs above Rs 2,48,000, we could see fresh long buildup pushing prices toward the Rs 2,80,000-3,00,000 zone. However, strong support stands at Rs 2,29,000, and a breach below this level would trigger fresh short buildup.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Silver above Rs 2,48,000, with a stop-loss below Rs 2,25,000 and targets of Rs 2,80,000 and Rs 3,00,000.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 2,42,000.

MCX Crude Oil

Technical Outlook:

MCX Crude Oil managed to close in the green with gains of over 1% last week, paring its high after rallying nearly 8%. Prices are expected to trade higher in the coming days as the overall trend remains strong, supported by the weekly RSI holding above 60, which highlights underlying strength in prices. Going forward, a sustained breakout above Rs 10,250 would push prices higher toward Rs 11,000/11,500 levels, while strong support stands at Rs 9,100, below which we could see a trend reversal.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Crude Oil above Rs 10,250, with a stop-loss below Rs 9,600 and targets of Rs 11,000 and Rs 11,500.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 9,662.

MCX Copper

Technical Outlook:

MCX Copper managed to close nearly 2% higher last week, demonstrating a strong reversal after its recent decline. The weekly RSI is trading at 69, indicating robust underlying momentum. Prices are poised to trade higher, and any breakout above Rs 1,410 would push prices toward Rs 1,440/1,455 levels in the coming days, while strong support stands firmly at Rs 1,350.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Copper above Rs 1,410 with a stoploss below Rs 1,380 and targets of Rs 1,440 and Rs 1,455.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 1,404.

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