Weekly Broader Outlook 22nd December 2025 by GEPL Capital Ltd
NIFTY 50 : 25966 weekly change (-0.31%)
Inference & Expectations
* As highlighted in our previous report index has respected our support level of 25700. On the weekly chart, the index has formed a doji candlestick near the 12-week EMA, highlighting indecision among market participants at a key support zone. While this reflects short-term uncertainty, the fact that the index continues to hold above this moving average suggests that the broader trend remains constructive and that buyers are still defending important levels. On the daily timeframe, the index continues to form higher bottoms, reinforcing the underlying uptrend. The 50- DEMA has emerged as a strong and reliable support, repeatedly attracting buying interest during pullbacks. From a momentum perspective, the daily RSI hovering around the 50 mark indicates a neutral bias, suggesting a pause in momentum rather than a trend reversal. Overall, the setup points to consolidation within a larger positive structure, with the next directional move likely to emerge after this phase of balance.
* For Traders: Long positions may be considered above 26150. Then index holds upside potential towards 26325 and 26550. To manage risk effectively, a stop-loss should be placed at 25800 on a closing basis.
* For Investors: Investors can consider accumulating at 25800-25500 zone. The target for this investment is set at 28600 level, offering significant upside potential.
NIFTY MIDCAP 150 : 22146 weekly change (-0.03%)
Observation
* As mentioned in our earlier report index continue to trade rangebound during the course. The NIFTY MIDCAP 150 index continues to maintain a long-term structural uptrend, with its price action historically adhering to a well-defined statistical rhythm within the rising channel. During this uptrend, the index has undergone both price-wise and time-wise retracements, often resolving into bullish continuation patterns.
* From a historical perspective, the index has typically corrected by 20–25% before resuming its upward trajectory. Following the post-COVID rally, a 23% correction from the October 2021 peak evolved into a Cup & Handle formation, whose breakout marked the beginning of the next bullish phase. A similar price structure has played out recently—after another ~23% corrective decline, the index broke out of a Cup & Handle pattern in October 2025, suggesting that the broader trend remains constructive.
* That said, near-term participation remains muted. Market breadth is currently weak, with only 52 out of 150 stocks trading above their 20-DEMA, while 98 stocks remain below the average, reflecting lackluster price action beneath the surface. Momentum also appears subdued, as the weekly MACD has remained flat since August 2025, indicating an absence of strong directional momentum in the near term.
Inference & Expectations
* Based on the overall price structure and the evidence supported by indicators, it can be inferred that the NIFTY MIDCAP 150 Index trend is sideways to positive.
* We expect the Index to remain positive with the potential upside would be 22600 & 23500 level.
* Our view will be negated if we see prices sustaining below 21400.
NIFTY SMLCAP 250: 16407 weekly change (+0.07%)
Observation
* As mentioned in our earlier report index trend continue to remain weak. The Nifty Smallcap 250 index has extended its underperformance into a fifth consecutive month, highlighting a sustained risk-off environment within the small-cap space. This weakness goes beyond a routine correction and points toward structural deterioration on higher timeframes, indicating a loss of broader trend strength.
* Structurally, the index has decisively violated its inverted headand-shoulders pattern, invalidating a potential trend-reversal setup and reinforcing bearish price behavior. The continued formation of lower tops reflects persistent supply at higher levels and a lack of meaningful follow-through buying, keeping the price structure under pressure.
* MACD remains below its zero line & declining MACD histogram
Inference & Expectations
* Looking at the overall structure of prices and the evidence provided by indicator we can infer that the NIFTY SMLCAP 250 is in weak trend.
* Going ahead we expect the Index to remain weak until 17000 is not breached decisively upward.
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