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Below the Views on Morning Market 21th October 2025 by Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited

The important takeaway from Samvat 2081 is India’s huge underperformance. Even though there are many reasons, including Trump tariffs, for this underperformance, the single major factor is the sharp decline in India’s earnings growth to 5 % in FY 25 from average 24 % during the three years before that. Since “ in the long run the market is a slave of earnings” the major trend, going forward, will depend on how earnings growth pans out. The fiscal and monetary reforms implemented this year has started showing results. Particularly, the sales of automobiles and white goods have shot up early this festive season and, if this trend sustains, earnings growth will be good at around 8 to 10% in FY 26, accelerating to around 15 % in FY 27. If this expectation materialises, the market will rally in Samvat 2082 compensating for the underperformance of Samvat 2081. In the short run the market may get a leg up from a possible India- US trade deal, but the long-term trend will be dictated by earnings growth.
 

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