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Below the Views on Morning Market 15th December 2025 by Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited

The general expectation in the market is that India’s underperformance in 2025 is likely to be compensated in 2026. India’s macros are in fine shape and policy support has been strong. The fiscal and monetary stimuli imparted to trigger consumption and investment has started yielding results. If the momentum sustains it can give the much needed boost to corporate earnings in FY27. 

A major drag on the market continues to be the elusive US-India trade deal which is impacting India’s exports to the US, widening of trade deficit and continuous depreciation in the rupee. 

On the global market front, a likely scenario is the weakening of the AI trade. Recent AI results in the US indicate earnings stress in some AI companies. If the AI trade weakens, that will be beneficial to India. In brief. the macro construct favours outperformance by India in the EM universe in 2026. But the high market valuations should temper expectations.

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