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Market Roundup

* The Indian rupee is expected to open slightly lower following strength in the greenback versus major currencies. However, the lower crude oil prices and stronger regional currencies could limit the loss. The implied opening from forwardssuggeststhe spotUSDINRmay starttrading around 83.28.

* It was another day where the Indian rupee lacked direction and traded in a narrow range of mere 4 paise through the day. Spot USDINR settled at 83.26 a paise higher from 83.25 on Tuesday. The fear of central bank intervention and lower crude oil prices supported the rupee even after the stronger dollar index and foreign fund outflows.

* Technically, spot USDINR is expected to remain between 83 to 83.30 and either side breakoutwill lead to a surge in volume and volatility.

* The government data showed that eight key infrastructure sectors' growth slowed to a 4-month low of 8.1% in September 2023 against 8.3% a year ago.

* The central government's fiscal deficit touched 39.3% of the full-year target in the first half of the current financial year, slightly higher than 37.3% recorded in the year-ago period.

* The yen strengthened against all Group-of-10 peers after Japan’s Ministry of Finance stepped up its verbal intervention to prop up the currency. On Monday, The yen tumbled to its lowest mark in a year against the dollar after the Bank of Japan underwhelmed investors looking for a decisive unwind of yield curve control. A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar rallied for the first day in three.

* In other markets, oil advanced after slumping in the first two days of the week, as a still-contained Israel-Hamaswar caused attention to shift to global demand.

Technical Observations:

USDINR Nov fut. hovering below 10 and 21 DEMA for the last three days with narrow price actions.

Momentum Oscillator, RSI of 14 days period is placed below 50 and flattening indicating lackluster momentum.

MACD has been placed below a zero line exhibiting a weak trend.

Minor short buildup was seen as the price declined while open interest and volume gained.

Short Term Trend: Neutral/Sideways

Expected Trading Range: 83.05 to 83.40

Intraday Recommendation: Sell USDINR Nov. Fut. Below 83.20 SL 83.35 Target 83

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