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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

• Rupee depreciated to its one month lows on Tuesday amid weakness in Asian currencies and dollar demand from state-run banks. Further higher crude oil prices and weakness in the domestic equities also weighed on the rupee to went past the 83.00 mark.

• USDINR is expected to face the hurdle near 83.15 and move back towards the 82.90 ahead of the FOMC meeting. Mixed set of economic numbers from US could force the Fed to incline towards rate cut in June. Meanwhile, all focus will remain on Fed’s economic projections and the new ‘dot plot’ which would bring more clarity on the interest rate path. USDINR March likely to move in the band of 82.90-83.15. The pair is expected to consolidate in the band of 82.90 to 83.15. Only close above 83.15 it would rise towards 83.25.

Euro and Pound Outlook

• Euro fell to its 2-week low yesterday amid strong dollar. But better than expected German ZEW economic sentiments aided the pair to trim its losses. For today, EURUSD is likely to remain in the range of 1.0830 and 1.0880 ahead of today’s key FOMC meeting. Further, focus will also remain on the comments from the ECB President Lagarde to get clarity on timing of interest rate cut. EURINR March is likely to find support near 90.00 and move towards 90.50. Only close below 90.00 it would turn weaker.

• Pound also traded lower amid strong dollar. The pair is expected to find support near 1.266 and move towards 1.2740 on expectation of no change in the monetary policy from the BOE. Sticky inflation numbers would force the central bank to hold its rates steady. GBPINR March is likely to move in the range of 105.20 and 105.80 ahead of the policy. Only a move below 105.20 it would slip towards 105.00 level.

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