IGI Logo

USD/INR

Market Commentary:

The Initial applications for the US employment benefit rose last week to the highest level since August broadly inline with the gradual cooling in the labor market. Consequently increasing the bets of a rate cut this year, and pushing the Dollar Index lower towards the 105.00 handle. USDINR bounced off 83.44 and settled higher, majorly driven by bids from foreign banks and importers

On the Daily chart, USDINR has managed to sustain above the short term (5,13,21) period moving averages. Technically, the pair is expected to find resistance around the 83.70 handle followed by 83.90. The immediate support for the pair is placed near 83.30-83.10.

The Daily stochastic indicator is placed in the overbought zone, while 20 period z-score of the difference of the 8 and 21 day moving averages continue to remain in the over bought territory.

Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 9.8% probability that the pair will breach above 83.63 while there is a 9.4% chance that it will breach below 83.30

EUR/INR

Market Commentary:

The Dollar index cooling off has pushed the Euro higher. Consequently pushing the EURUSD pair closer to the 1.08 handle. On Thursday EURINR opened on a negative and settled lower.

The pair is expected to find support ~89.55 mark (13 and 21 period Exponential moving average cluster point) followed by 89.30. The immediate resistance is placed near 90.00, followed by 90.30.

• The daily stochastic oscillator has formed a bearish crossover, but remains in the overbought territory, while the z-score of the difference between 8 and 21 day moving averages inch closer to the overbought territory.

Notable strikes set to expire today for EUR/USD lie at 1.0760, 1.0780.

• Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 10.1% chance that the pair will breach above 90.15 today while there is a 9.6% probability that it will breach below 89.19.

GBP/INR

Market Commentary:

Bank of England kept the terminal rates unchanged but, the governor said that there would be a case for cutting rates, if the economy and the inflation play out as the central bank expected. GBPINR has been forming small bodied candles with long lower wicks, indicating possible buying interest near the 104.00 handle.

Technically, the psychological level of 104.00 is expected to act as a support, beyond which we might see the pair move lower towards the 103.80 zone. The immediate resistance is placed near 104.60, followed by 105.00.

The daily stochastic indicator has moved below the overbought regime after a bearish crossover, suggesting increasing bearish momentum in the pair.

Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 10.6% probability that the pair will breach above 104.80, while there is a 9.1% probability that it will breach below 103.80.

JPY/INR

Market Commentary:

Days after the suspected intervention by the BoJ, the Yen continues to weaken as the traders focused on the interest differential between the US and Japanese economy. As per a Bloomberg report Hedge Funds are betting on Yen depreciating further and the USDJPY pair moving higher towards the 34 year low. The USDJPY can be seen inching closer to the 156.00 handle. The JPYINR pair has been moving lower ever since it tested a high of 0.5490.

The immediate support for the pair lies around 0.5330, followed by 0.5300. The 21 day moving average which lies around 0.5400 is expected to act as a resistance.

The daily Stochastic oscillator has formed a bearish crossover. While the 20 period Z-score of the difference of 8, and 21 period moving average is placed in the overbought zone.

Notable strikes set to expire today are at 155.08, 155.50, 156.00, 156.35.

Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 10.1% probability that the pair will breach above 0.5410 while there is 10% probability that it will breach below 0.5334.

For More Axis Securities Disclaimer https://simplehai.axisdirect.in/disclaimer-home

SEBI Registration number is INZ000161633