USDINR February futures closed below the short-term moving average of 21 days - HDFC Securities
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Market Roundup:
The rupee could open slightly higher following a weaker greenback and risk-on moods. But the mixed Asian currencies and higher crude oil prices could push the rupee lower just like on Wednesday. Implied opening from forwards suggests spot USDINRmay starttrading around 82.95.
On Wednesday, the spot USDINR retreated the losses and closed unchanged at 82.97. However, the direction remained down following weak technical indicators. In the near term, the pair has support at 82.80 and resistance at 83.20.
The US dollar remained stable on the day after most Federal Reserve officials noted risks of cutting rates too quickly, according to January FOMC meeting minutes. Earlier, US mortgage rates jumped above 7% for the first time since early December, dealing a blow to the housing market’s nascentrecovery.
Euro rose as much as 0.2% before paring the gain, extending its advance into a sixth day. It hovered near a two-week high of 1.0839 touched on Tuesday, as traders have been pricing out the possibility that the ECB will start cutting rates in April
Indian shares are set to open marginally higher, after snapping a six-session winning streak in the previous session, while Asian peers opened higher led by a rally in Japanese stocks.
Elsewhere, Oil prices rose slightly, holding to gains from the previous session that came amid signs of tighter supply
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said recent economic data highlighted how price pressures in some sectors are still too high, despite improvementin the overall inflation picture.
Technical Observations:
USDINR February futures closed below the short-term moving average of 21 days.
Momentum Oscillator, RSI of 14 days period is placed below 50 and weakening.
MACD has been placed below a zero line with a negative cross-over indicating a weak trend.
Unwinding has been seen as the price and open interest declined
Short Term Trend: Bearish
Expected Trading Range: 83.15 to 82.90
Intraday Recommendation: Sell USDINR Feb. Fut. at 83.03 & 83.10 SL 83.14 Target 82.85
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