U.S. Sugar Supply Surges for 2023/24 on Increased Production and Imports by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
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U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 has increased by 239,152 short tons, raw value (STRV), reaching 14.941 million STRV due to higher production and imports. Beet sugar production rose by 41,049 STRV, driven by early 2024 harvests, while Louisiana’s cane sugar production climbed by 53,024 STRV. Imports surged by 145,000 STRV, boosted by reexport and high-tier tariff imports. Ending stocks are now projected at 2.278 million STRV, raising the stocks-to-use ratio to 18.0%. However, the outlook for 2024/25 is less optimistic, with supply expected to decrease by 208,276 STRV due to reduced imports from Mexico and a lower sugarbeet production forecast.
Key Highlights
* U.S. sugar supply rises by 239,152 STRV to 14.941 million STRV for 2023/24.
* Beet sugar production increases due to early 2024 sugarbeet crop expectations.
* Cane sugar production in Louisiana grows by 53,024 STRV from early 2024 sugarcane yields.
* Imports surge by 145,000 STRV, mainly driven by reexport and high-tier tariff imports.
* U.S. sugar stocks-to-use ratio climbs to 18.0%, indicating ample supply.
U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 has risen sharply by 239,152 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.941 million STRV, fueled by a combination of increased production and imports. Beet sugar production experienced a notable boost of 41,049 STRV, attributed to early harvesting of the 2024 sugarbeet crop. Additionally, Louisiana's cane sugar production increased by 53,024 STRV, as early-season 2024 sugarcane crops are expected to yield more than previously forecasted.
On the import front, reexport imports jumped by 32,000 STRV and high-tier tariff imports surged by 82,400 STRV, reflecting stronger import activity. Imports from Mexico are also expected to rise in the coming months, further augmenting supply. Despite the increase in supply, usage has only increased modestly, as re-export product deliveries offset a minor reduction in export activities.
With these adjustments, U.S. ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected at 2.278 million STRV, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio to 18.0%, up from last month’s 16.1%. However, for 2024/25, the outlook softens with a projected decrease in supply by 208,276 STRV due to lower imports from Mexico and decreased beet sugar production.
Finally
With rising production and imports, U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is robust, but the 2024/25 outlook hints at potential tightening in stocks.
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