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U.S. soybean supply for 2024/25 is projected to decline due to lower beginning stocks and a 3 million bushel drop in production to 4.6 billion. With crush and export forecasts unchanged, ending stocks are reduced by 10 million bushels to 550 million. The season-average soybean price remains steady at $10.80 per bushel, while soybean meal and oil prices also stay unchanged. Globally, oilseed production is down 2.8 million tons due to reduced rapeseed and sunflowerseed output in the EU and surrounding regions. However, increased soybean production in Paraguay and Canada offsets these losses, leading to higher global soybean trade and a slight increase in ending stocks.

Key Highlights

* U.S. soybean production projected lower by 3 million bushels for 2024/25.

* Ending stocks for U.S. soybeans reduced to 550 million bushels.

* Global soybean production forecast increases due to Paraguay and Canada.

* Foreign oilseed production lowered on reduced EU rapeseed and sunflowerseed output.

* Global soybean trade projected higher with increased exports from Paraguay.

U.S. soybean supply for 2024/25 is set to tighten, driven by a reduction in beginning stocks and a projected decrease in production by 3 million bushels to 4.6 billion. Despite unchanged forecasts for soybean crush and exports, U.S. ending stocks have been revised downward by 10 million bushels to 550 million. The season-average soybean price remains steady at $10.80 per bushel, with no changes in soybean meal prices at $320 per short ton or soybean oil prices at 42 cents per pound.

The global oilseed market has seen shifts, particularly with reduced production in key regions. Foreign oilseed output is lowered by 2.8 million tons, reflecting significant declines in rapeseed and sunflowerseed production for the EU, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Moldova. However, foreign soybean production has been revised upward by 0.6 million tons due to higher production forecasts for Paraguay and Canada, offsetting reduced output in the EU and Serbia.

On the global trade front, soybean exports are forecast to rise, driven by strong performances from Paraguay and increased imports by Argentina. Paraguay's soybean production from 2022/23 through 2024/25 has been raised, reflecting the country's robust export pace and crushing activity. As a result, global soybean ending stocks have increased slightly by 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million.

Finally

U.S. soybean stocks are tightening, while global soybean trade and production see varied trends, keeping prices stable amidst these adjustments.

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