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The U.S. rice outlook for 2024/25 anticipates increased supplies due to higher production and record imports. Domestic use remains unchanged, while exports and ending stocks are projected to rise. Globally, rice supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks are all expected to reach new heights, driven by record production in Pakistan and increased demand from countries like the Philippines.

Highlights

Increased U.S. Rice Supplies: The 2024/25 U.S. rice supplies are projected to rise by 2.5 million cwt, reaching 307.0 million cwt, due to higher production and imports.

Higher Production and Imports: U.S. rice production is expected to be slightly up at 221.7 million cwt, driven by increased harvested area and improved yields, along with record imports of 45.5 million cwt, primarily from Thailand.

Stable Domestic Use: Domestic use of rice in the U.S. remains unchanged, indicating steady consumption patterns within the country despite fluctuations in production and imports.

Increased Exports: U.S. rice exports are projected to rise to 101.0 million cwt, benefiting from the larger supplies available, potentially expanding the U.S. presence in international markets.

Higher Ending Stocks: U.S. ending stocks for rice in 2024/25 are expected to increase to 46.0 million cwt, which is a 16 percent rise compared to the previous year, ensuring better stock availability.

Unchanged Farm Prices: The season-average farm prices for U.S. rice in 2024/25 are projected to remain stable, indicating no significant price fluctuations despite changes in supply and demand dynamics.

Global Rice Outlook: The global outlook for 2024/25 predicts higher rice supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks, reflecting a robust and growing international rice market.

Record Production in Pakistan: Global rice supplies are bolstered by a record production forecast for Pakistan, attributed to favorable planting conditions and sufficient water availability, enhancing global production estimates.

Increased Global Consumption: World rice consumption and residual use are projected to reach a record 527.3 million tons, driven by higher consumption in countries like Pakistan and the Philippines.

Higher World Trade: Global rice trade is expected to grow to 54.6 million tons, with a notable increase in exports from Pakistan, supporting the overall expansion in international rice trade.

Slightly Higher Global Ending Stocks: Projected world ending stocks of rice for 2024/25 are marginally up to 178.1 million tons, indicating a stable supply-demand balance on a global scale.

Conclusion

The 2024/25 projections for both U.S. and global rice markets indicate a promising year ahead with record-breaking supplies and increased trade. The U.S. benefits from higher production and imports, which support greater exports and larger ending stocks. Globally, record production, particularly in Pakistan, coupled with rising consumption in key markets, underscores a robust international demand. Stable farm prices in the U.S. suggest a balanced market despite increased supply, ensuring favorable conditions for both producers and consumers. Overall, the outlook points to a well-supplied and dynamic rice market in the upcoming year.

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