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Gold

Gold settled down 0.3% at Rs 143,705, pressured by expectations of tighter monetary policy, elevated US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar as investors assessed geopolitical developments in the Middle East. The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% in October following a 25-basis-point hike in September, although two policymakers favoured another increase. The Fed noted resilient domestic spending and strong economic activity, while persistent uncertainty continues to influence the monetary policy outlook. Analysts lowered their 2026 gold price forecast to $4,495 per troy ounce from $4,509 previously, citing elevated yields, dollar strength and expectations of higher interest rates for longer, but anticipate a recovery in 2027. Physical demand showed signs of improvement in India, where festival buying during Dussehra lifted premiums to $9 per ounce over domestic prices, compared with $7 previously. In China, net gold imports through Hong Kong rose more than 28% month on month to 74.987 tonnes in September, reaching a five-month high, while the central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 23 consecutive months. Gold holdings in London vaults increased 1.96% month on month to 9,821 tonnes at the end of September, valued at $1.3 trillion. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 gold price forecast at $5,400 per ounce, citing continued central bank diversification as a key structural driver, although a more hawkish Fed could trigger a correction towards $4,070 before a potential recovery. Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and Israel, alongside policy decisions from the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank, remain important market drivers. Technically, the market is under long unwinding, with open interest declining 0.2% to 15,591 contracts as prices fell by Rs 433. Gold has support at Rs 143,240, below which prices could test Rs 142,770, while resistance is seen at Rs 144,260, with an upward breakout potentially extending gains towards Rs 144,810.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 142770-144810.

* Gold dropped as investors cautiously awaited Fed’s policy decision and assessed geopolitical developments in Middle East.

* Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% at its October 2026 meeting, following a 25bps hike in September

* China's September net gold imports via Hong Kong hit five – month high in September

* COMEX gold speculative net longs fell 2,392 contracts to 108,685;

Silver

Silver settled down 1.22% at Rs 194,325, pressured by a stronger US dollar, elevated Treasury yields and expectations that interest rates may remain higher for longer as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The dollar index strengthened to 102.2, reaching a two-week high and extending gains for a third consecutive session. The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% in October following a 25-basis-point hike in September, while two policymakers favoured another increase. The central bank highlighted resilient domestic spending, strong economic activity and persistently elevated inflation, keeping uncertainty over future rate decisions in focus. US durable goods orders rose 1.8% month on month in September, exceeding expectations of 1.5%, while building permits declined 0.4% to an annualised rate of 1.398 million. Analysts lowered their silver price outlook amid dollar strength and elevated yields, forecasting an average of $66.75 per ounce in 2027, compared with $70.30 for 2026, although a recovery is expected next year. Fundamentally, the silver market is projected to record its sixth consecutive annual deficit, with the shortfall widening to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Total demand is expected to decline 2% due to weaker industrial and jewellery consumption, while coin and bar demand could increase 18%. Industrial silver fabrication is forecast to fall 3% to a four-year low, reflecting concerns over global economic growth and geopolitical disruptions. Total supply is projected to decline 2%, reinforcing underlying supply constraints. Silver holdings in London vaults increased 1.95% month on month to 28,985 tonnes at the end of September, valued at $56.6 billion. Despite improved market liquidity, cumulative inventory withdrawals since 2021 continue to highlight structural tightness. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 0.36% to 16,598 contracts as prices declined by Rs 2,392, indicating the addition of fresh short positions. Silver has support at Rs 193,370, below which prices could test Rs 192,410, while resistance is seen at Rs 195,920, with a sustained move above this level potentially pushing prices towards Rs 197,510.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 192410-197510.

* Silver dropped as market participants awaited Fed policy decision and comments from Chair Kevin Warsh.

* Fed said that economic activity is expanding at a strong pace.

* Silver expected to average $70.30/oz in 2026, $66.75 in 2027

* COMEX silver speculative net longs fell 1,988 contracts to 3,746.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled up 3.16% at Rs 9,798, supported by renewed supply concerns after reports of a missile attack on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery, which has a processing capacity of 550,000 barrels per day. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis claimed responsibility for the strike, intensifying concerns over escalating Middle East tensions and potential disruptions to global oil supplies. US crude inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million barrels in the week ended October 23, against market expectations for a slight increase, while stocks at Cushing declined by 624,000 barrels. Distillate inventories dropped by 1.5 million barrels to 102.8 million barrels, whereas gasoline stocks increased by 3.9 million barrels to 209.2 million barrels. Refinery utilisation declined by 0.6 percentage points to 92.8%, and net US crude imports fell by 796,000 barrels per day. Market participants also monitored expectations that OPEC+ would maintain its December production targets. OPEC revised down its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million barrels per day projected at the beginning of the year, marking its sixth consecutive downward revision, while raising its outlook for 2027 as demand deferred by the Iran war is expected to materialise. OPEC also reported a sharp increase in Saudi crude production in September to 8.372 million barrels per day, up more than 2 million barrels per day from August. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reported that Russian crude production rose by 65,000 barrels per day in September to 8.43 million barrels per day, remaining significantly below year-earlier levels. Russian crude exports increased to 5.3 million barrels per day, although Ukrainian strikes continued to disrupt refinery operations. Potential declines in Russian exports and persistent geopolitical risks remain supportive factors, while weaker demand growth forecasts could limit further gains. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 18.74% to 16,819 contracts alongside a Rs 300 price increase, indicating the addition of fresh positions. Crude oil has support at Rs 9,650, below which prices could test Rs 9,505, while resistance is placed at Rs 9,910, with a sustained move above this level potentially pushing prices towards Rs 10,020.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude Oil trading range for the day is 9505-10020.

* Crude oil gains as Saudi Arabian refinery attack reignites supply risk concerns

* OPEC+ likely to keep December output targets steady

* US crude stocks fell 2.03 million barrels last week, API data showed

* UBS expects Brent to trade at $110/bbl by year-end, up from USD 100/bbl previously

Natural gas

Natural gas settled up 1.63% at Rs 293.1, supported by rising liquefied natural gas export activity and stronger demand from European and Asian buyers seeking to secure supplies ahead of winter. Feedgas deliveries to the nine major US LNG export plants increased to 19.2 billion cubic feet per day over the past two weeks, while average flows so far in October reached 18.3 billion cubic feet per day, up from 17.9 billion cubic feet per day in September. However, gains were limited by forecasts for above-normal temperatures across the eastern two-thirds of the United States, which could curb heating demand. US natural gas inventories increased by 77 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 16, below market expectations of 79 billion cubic feet and the five-year average injection of 87 billion cubic feet. Total inventories reached 3.644 trillion cubic feet, standing 4% below year-earlier levels but 1% above the five-year average. US production averaged 112.0 billion cubic feet per day in October, below the record levels of August and September, although daily output recently recovered to around 113.5 billion cubic feet per day. The US Energy Information Administration projected dry gas production to rise to 112.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 116.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2027, while domestic consumption is expected to reach 92.4 billion and 93.8 billion cubic feet per day, respectively. LNG exports are forecast to increase to 17.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 18.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2027. Despite growing export demand, stronger production growth could keep the market well supplied. Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 natural gas price forecast to $2.80 per million British thermal units from $3.50, citing expectations that supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2 billion cubic feet per day. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 2.38% to 49,577 contracts while prices increased by Rs 4.7. Natural gas has support at Rs 290.50, below which prices could test Rs 288.50, while resistance is seen at Rs 296.00, with a sustained move above this level potentially pushing prices towards Rs 298.50.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural Gas trading range for the day is 288.50-298.50.

* Natural gas prices rose supported by rising LNG export activity.

* Feedgas deliveries to the nine major LNG export plants went up to 19.2 bcfd over the past two weeks.

* Growing demand for US LNG from European and Asian buyers also supported prices, as the two regions raced to secure supplies ahead of winter.

* However, gains were limited by forecasts for above-normal temperatures across the eastern two-thirds of the country, which could limit heating demand.

Copper

Copper settled up 0.09% at Rs 1,406.6, supported by tight near-term availability, strong Chinese import demand and supply disruptions at major mining operations, while investor caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision limited gains. The Yangshan copper premium, a key indicator of Chinese import demand, surged to nearly a 13-year high of $188 per tonne, while the LME cash copper contract traded at a premium of $199.50 over the three-month contract, highlighting immediate supply tightness. China’s economy grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, while industrial production increased 5.5% in September, supporting the demand outlook. Chinese copper imports rose 20.7% month on month to 461,000 tonnes in September. However, the International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper surplus of 132,000 tonnes in August, compared with a deficit of 45,000 tonnes in July, taking the surplus for the first eight months to 218,000 tonnes. The group expects the global refined copper surplus to widen from 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027, as production growth outpaces consumption. Mine supply disruptions remain a key concern, with Chilean output affected by operational challenges and adverse weather, while Peruvian copper production declined 5% year on year in August. Production at BHP-controlled Escondida fell 27.6% in August, while Collahuasi output declined 25.1%, although Codelco recorded an increase of nearly 9%. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 copper price forecast to $14,700 per tonne and its 2027 average forecast to $15,400, citing weaker mine supply and tightening markets outside the United States. Longer-term demand is expected to benefit from electrification, renewable energy, digitalisation, data centres and semiconductor manufacturing, although rising refined output could limit price gains. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 3.3% to 6,972 contracts alongside a price increase of Rs 1.25. Copper has support at Rs 1,403, below which prices could test Rs 1,400, while resistance is placed at Rs 1,409, with a sustained move above this level potentially pushing prices towards Rs 1,411.50.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1400.00-1411.50.

* Copper steadied as dollar held around 102.4 supported by investor caution ahead of Fed upcoming policy decision.

* The cash LME copper contract last traded at a $199.50-a-ton premium over the three-month forward, indicating near-term tightness.

* China’s Q3 GDP grew 4.5% and September industrial production rose 5.5% YoY, supporting sentiment.

Zinc

Zinc settled down 0.44% at Rs 417.2, weighed down by expectations of improved Chinese zinc concentrate availability, although losses were limited by concerns over mine supply disruptions and tightening availability outside China. Near-term supply tightness was evident as the LME cash zinc premium over the three-month contract surged to $106 per tonne from $45 last week. Available LME stocks declined 14% from the previous week, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories fell 5% to 137,139 tonnes, their lowest level since March. London Metal Exchange inventories stood at 133,700 tonnes. Supply constraints remain significant in Western markets, where refined zinc production declined 3.4% year on year in the first half of 2026 amid elevated energy costs and limited raw material availability. China’s refined zinc production fell 1.9% month on month and 6.4% year on year in September, although mine output is expected to recover in October as disrupted operations resume. Uncertainty surrounding Nyrstar’s loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands has added to concerns over potential production losses. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global refined zinc market shifted to a deficit of 3,900 tonnes in August from a surplus of 27,500 tonnes in July, while the cumulative surplus for the first eight months narrowed to 96,000 tonnes. However, the group expects the market to move from a deficit of 88,000 tonnes in 2026 to a surplus of 25,000 tonnes in 2027, supported by rising production. Global refined zinc output is forecast to increase 2% to 14.21 million tonnes in 2027, while mine production is expected to rise 3% to 12.78 million tonnes. Zinc demand is projected to grow 1.2% to 14.19 million tonnes, supported by stronger consumption in Europe, India and the United States, although slower Chinese real estate investment could limit growth. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 19.59% to 1,935 contracts while prices declined by Rs 1.85, indicating the addition of fresh short positions. Zinc has support at Rs 414.50, below which prices could test Rs 411.50, while resistance is seen at Rs 421.50, with a sustained move above this level potentially pushing prices towards Rs 425.50.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 411.50-425.50.

* Zinc dropped weighed down by the prospect of increased Chinese zinc concentrate availability.

* However, downside seen limited amid worries about mine supply and shortages outside China.

* Near-term tightness was evident from the premium of LME cash zinc over 3M, which has spiked to $106 a ton from $45 last week.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled down 0.56% at Rs 330.3, pressured by reports of ambitious overseas expansion plans by Chinese producers and concerns over a potential global surplus in 2027. However, losses were limited by declining exchange inventories and persistent supply uncertainty. London Metal Exchange inventories fell to 234,100 tonnes, with orders placed to withdraw 3,500 tonnes from registered warehouses in Asia. Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored stocks declined 10.2% to 212,858 tonnes, while inventories at three major Japanese ports fell 9.5% month on month to 223,200 tonnes at the end of September. Global primary aluminium production declined 1.4% year on year to 6.014 million tonnes in September, highlighting supply-side challenges. However, China continued to maintain high production levels, with third-quarter primary aluminium output rising 2.2% year on year to 11.84 million tonnes. Production during the first nine months increased 3.8% to 35.03 million tonnes, supported by strong smelting margins and operational efficiencies despite the government-imposed capacity ceiling. Supply concerns also eased as Emirates Global Aluminium restarted 631 of 1,262 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah smelter, restoring 50% of capacity, with full production expected in the first quarter of 2027. Meanwhile, additional Indonesian capacity and improving Gulf supply flows are expected to increase global availability. The aluminium market could face a surplus exceeding 1 million tonnes in 2027 as new production enters the market. Japanese buyers agreed to pay premiums of $255 per tonne for October-December shipments, down 35% from the previous quarter, reflecting changing regional supply conditions. A stronger US dollar and caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision also weighed on sentiment. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 6.55% to 4,523 contracts while prices declined by Rs 1.85, indicating the addition of fresh short positions. Aluminium has support at Rs 328, below which prices could test Rs 325, while resistance is seen at Rs 333.50, with a sustained move above this level potentially pushing prices towards Rs 336.50.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 325.00-336.50.

* Aluminium dropped after reports published about Chinese producers' ambitious overseas growth plans.

* Aluminium stocks in SHFE-monitored warehouses fell by more than 10% last week, to 212,858 tons.

* Japan's September aluminium stocks down 9.5% m/m

Turmeric

Turmeric settled down 2.03% at Rs 26,436 on profit booking after prices gained on renewed demand, reduced stockist selling and tight spot availability. Despite the correction, prices continued to draw support from declining carryforward stocks, drought-related crop damage and concerns over the impact of El Niño-like conditions on the upcoming harvest. Karnataka has reported turmeric crop losses across 13,446 hectares, valued at Rs 188.24 crore, according to a joint drought survey by the state’s Horticulture and Revenue Departments and KSDMA. Turmeric cultivation covers approximately 18,000–20,000 hectares in the state. Industry estimates suggest carryforward stocks have declined to around 15 lakh bags from over 20 lakh bags last season, tightening the overall supply buffer. However, expectations of a 15% increase in Indian turmeric production in 2026, supported by an estimated 20% expansion in acreage, particularly in Maharashtra, limited the upside. Improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, along with better reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, eased concerns over crop stress. Re-sowing has also been completed in North Karnataka following rainfall, although traders remain cautious about whether improved weather will translate into higher yields. Export performance remained mixed, with turmeric exports falling 14% year on year to 14,736 tonnes in August 2026 from 17,136 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April–August rose 4% to 65,476 tonnes. August shipments increased to the UAE by 50% to 3,021 tonnes, the Netherlands by 57% to 697 tonnes and Brazil by 37% to 654 tonnes, while exports to Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia declined sharply. Demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from the European Union provided selective support, although stricter residue regulations pressured non-compliant commercial grades. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, prices declined 0.24% to Rs 25,244.75. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest falling 2.45% to 18,100 contracts alongside a Rs 548 decline in prices. Turmeric has support at Rs 26,070, below which prices could test Rs 25,710, while resistance is seen at Rs 26,940, with a sustained move above this level potentially pushing prices towards Rs 27,450.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 25710-27450.

* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid on renewed demand and reduced stockist selling.

* Concerns were lingering amid worries about El Niño–type patterns and the potential impact of dry spells on yield formation.

* Stockholders, are now withholding stocks after earlier liquidation phases, effectively tightening spot availability just as demand improves.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 25244.75 Rupees dropped by 0.24 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled up 0.78% at Rs 25,720, supported by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, reduced sowing prospects and expectations of improved export demand. Farmers have been holding back stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing window, while declining arrivals across major trading centres such as Unjha and Rajasthan have tightened the supply of export-grade cumin. Estimates suggest India's jeera production could decline to 90–92 lakh bags this season from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production projected at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Adverse weather has also lowered China's production estimates to 70,000–80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce around 9,000–10,000 tonnes, 10,000–11,000 tonnes and 10,000–12,000 tonnes, respectively. However, upside remained limited by farmer selling to generate cash ahead of the new season, rising NCDEX warehouse stocks and cautious procurement by industrial spice processors. Improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria could also weigh on Indian export premiums, while geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to disrupt traditional trade flows. India's jeera exports declined 19.7% year on year to 11,667 tonnes in August 2026 from 14,532 tonnes a year earlier. Cumulative exports during April–August fell to 65,128 tonnes from 87,558 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. Shipments to the United States increased 16.5% to 1,517 tonnes, while exports to Singapore surged to 633 tonnes and Mexico rose to 373 tonnes. In contrast, shipments to the United Arab Emirates declined 81.6% to 453 tonnes, and Bangladesh exports fell 45.8% to 569 tonnes. In Unjha, a major spot market, prices increased 0.47% to Rs 25,925.65. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 1.94% to 8,328 contracts while prices rose by Rs 200. Jeera has support at Rs 25,290, below which prices could test Rs 24,870, while resistance is seen at Rs 26,000, with a sustained move above this level potentially pushing prices towards Rs 26,280.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 24870-26280.

* Jeera gained amid continued tightness in nearby months with traders monitoring early sowing signals and festival demand.

* Farmers were reportedly holding back cumin stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing window.

* Improved overseas buying is important and export demand can absorb domestic supply during the lean season.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 25925.65 Rupees gained by 0.47 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views