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Gold Rs 1,45,848 (-1.75%) ?

Gold settled sharply lower by 1.75% at Rs 145,848, pressured by stronger-than-expected US inflation data that reinforced expectations of tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy. US CPI inflation rose to 3.7% year on year in September against expectations of 3.6%, while monthly inflation increased 0.6%, marking its largest gain in five months. Core inflation reached 2.6% annually and 0.3% monthly, exceeding expectations and increasing pressure on the Fed to maintain a restrictive policy stance. Markets now see a higher probability of additional rate hikes, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem indicated that further tightening may be necessary to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Higher interest rate expectations weighed on non-yielding gold, although continued central bank purchases provided underlying support. China's central bank extended its gold buying streak to 23 consecutive months in September, increasing holdings to 77.47 million fine troy ounces from 76.73 million ounces in August, despite the value of its reserves declining to $323.52 billion from $350.08 billion. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 gold price forecast at $5,400 per ounce, citing continued central bank diversification, but warned that a more hawkish Fed could trigger a correction toward $4,070 before a recovery to around $4,200 by end-2026. Physical demand remained subdued in India and China, with Indian dealers offering discounts of up to $6 per ounce, while Chinese bullion traded at a premium of $10 per ounce to the global benchmark. Gold holdings in London vaults increased 0.74% month on month to 9,534 tonnes at the end of July 2026. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 0.23% to 17,588 contracts while prices declined by Rs 2,602. Gold has support at Rs 144,770, below which prices could test Rs 143,700. Resistance is placed at Rs 147,780, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 149,710.

Trading Ideas:

?  Gold trading range for the day is 143700-149710.

?  Gold prices fell below $4,100, hitting their lowest level since early August.

?  Gold prices dropped as a stronger-than-expected US inflation report prompted markets to reassess the Fed’s rate outlook.

?  US inflation rose to 3.7% year-on-year in September, above forecasts of 3.6%, driven by higher energy prices.

?  Markets now see around a 50% chance of the Fed holding rates steady at its October meeting.

Silver Rs2,08,338 (-4.96%) ?

Silver settled sharply lower by 4.96% at Rs 208,338, pressured by stronger-than-expected US inflation data that increased expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. US CPI inflation rose to 3.7% year on year in September against forecasts of 3.6%, while monthly inflation increased 0.6%, marking its largest gain in five months. Core inflation reached 2.6% annually and 0.3% monthly, exceeding expectations and strengthening the outlook for tighter monetary policy. Boston Fed President Susan Collins and New York Fed President John Williams indicated that another rate hike may be necessary before the end of 2026 to contain inflation, while Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman favoured waiting to assess economic and financial market developments. Despite the recent correction, the Silver Institute and Metals Focus expect the market to record its sixth consecutive annual structural deficit in 2026, with the shortfall widening to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Approximately 762 million ounces have been drawn from stocks since 2021, highlighting persistent supply constraints and potential liquidity risks. However, total silver demand is forecast to decline 2% in 2026, while industrial fabrication is expected to fall 3% to a four-year low amid weaker economic growth and reduced industrial and jewellery consumption. In contrast, coin and bar demand is projected to increase 18%, supported by recovering United States investment demand. Global silver supply is expected to decline 2%. Silver prices have fallen 35% from their January record high of $121.60 per ounce following the exceptional 147% rally in 2025. Silver holdings in London vaults increased 0.5% month on month to 28,213 tonnes at the end of July 2026, valued at $52.7 billion. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 7.24% to 20,688 contracts while prices declined by Rs 10,879. Silver has support at Rs 204,380, below which prices could test Rs 200,420. Resistance is placed at Rs 215,890, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 223,440.

Trading Ideas:

?  Silver trading range for the day is 200420-223440.

?  Silver dropped hitting their lowest level since early August, after stronger-than-expected US inflation.

?  US inflation climbed to 3.7% year-on-year in September, above forecasts of 3.6%, driven by higher energy prices.

?  Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said the central bank has time to wait and see how financial markets

?  Fed’s Williams has reaffirmed his view that the US central bank may need to ‌raise interest rates once more this year in its bid to lower inflation.

Crude Oil Rs 9,030 (+1.60%) ?

Crude oil settled higher by 1.6% at Rs 9,030, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions following an attack on the headquarters of Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil company and Iranian threats to deploy new tactics against shipping, raising concerns over potential supply disruptions. The US Energy Information Administration reported that crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ended October 2, against expectations of a 1.7 million-barrel increase. Refinery crude runs rose by 223,000 barrels per day, while refinery utilization increased 0.2 percentage points to 92.7%. However, gasoline inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels to 204.7 million barrels, while distillate stocks remained largely unchanged at 105.1 million barrels. China's crude oil imports declined 2.2% month on month to 37.10 million tonnes in September, while oil product imports fell 17.8% and exports increased 19.1% to 7.16 million tonnes. The International Energy Agency reported that Russian crude production rose by 65,000 barrels per day to 8.43 million bpd in September but remained 870,000 bpd below year-ago levels. Russian crude exports increased to 5.3 million bpd, although Ukrainian strikes continued to disrupt refinery operations. Kazakhstan's crude exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium system declined to 5.2 million tonnes in September from 5.7 million tonnes in August due to scheduled maintenance. Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 bpd from 1.4 million bpd at the beginning of the year, marking its sixth consecutive downward revision, while raising its 2027 outlook on expectations of inventory rebuilding and deferred demand. OPEC also reported that Saudi Arabian crude production increased by more than 2 million bpd in September to 8.372 million bpd. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 13.69% to 7,439 contracts alongside a price increase of Rs 142. Crude oil has support at Rs 8,915, below which prices could test Rs 8,805. Resistance is placed at Rs 9,100, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 9,175.

Trading Ideas:

?  Crude Oil trading range for the day is 8805-9175.

?  Crude oil rose after an attack on the headquarters of Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil company.

?  IEA says Russian oil output up 65,000 bpd in September, still down on the year

?  China September crude oil imports down 2.2% from August

?  Kazakh oil exports via the CPC system fell to 5.2 million metric tons in September, from 5.7 million tons in August

Natural Gas Rs 303.90 (-2.91%) ?

Natural gas settled lower by 2.91% at Rs 303.9, pressured by a modest increase in daily output, forecasts for milder weather, and expectations of weaker demand next week. According to LSEG, average natural gas production across the US Lower 48 states declined to 110.8 billion cubic feet per day in October from record levels of 113.3 bcfd in August and September, partly due to Hurricane Isaias-related shut-ins, force majeure incidents, and pipeline disruptions. US natural gas inventories increased by 85 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 2, exceeding the preliminary estimate of 79 bcf and bringing total stocks to 3.500 trillion cubic feet, 3.6% below year-ago levels. However, storage levels were estimated at 1.6% above the five-year average for the week ended October 9, indicating a relatively comfortable supply position. Average gas flows to nine major US liquefied natural gas export terminals declined to 17.5 bcfd in October from 17.9 bcfd in September, reducing a key source of demand support. The US Energy Information Administration projected natural gas production to rise to 112.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.1 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is expected to increase to 92.4 bcfd and 93.8 bcfd, respectively. LNG exports are forecast to reach 17.6 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 Nymex natural gas price forecast to $2.80 per MMBtu from $3.50, citing stronger expected Permian production and supply growth exceeding demand growth by more than 2 bcfd. The bank expects the US market to remain well supplied in the near term, limiting price recovery potential until demand growth tightens the supply-demand balance. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 23.32% to 33,896 contracts while prices declined by Rs 9.1. Natural gas has support at Rs 298, below which prices could test Rs 292. Resistance is placed at Rs 313.50, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 323.50.

Trading Ideas:

?  Natural Gas trading range for the day is 292.00-323.50.

?  Natural gas eased on a small increase in daily output and forecasts for mild weather and less demand.

?  US storage likely slipped to 1.6% above five-year average in week ended October 9, analysts estimate

?  Feedgas to nine major LNG plants averaged 17.5 bcfd in October, below September

?  US prices stayed muted despite Europe and Asia benchmarks near multi-year highs

Copper Rs1,403.95 (-0.90%) ?

Copper settled lower by 0.9% at Rs 1,403.95, pressured by a stronger US dollar, which climbed to 102.88, its highest level since April 2025, after stronger-than-expected inflation data reinforced expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. However, downside pressure remained limited by supply concerns in Chile, where Codelco partially suspended operations at its El Teniente mine following a fatal landslide, while Centinela mine management and striking unions resumed negotiations to resolve a week-long work stoppage. China's copper imports increased 20.7% month on month to 461,000 tonnes in September, indicating improved import demand. Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored copper inventories rose by 20,000 tonnes from the end of September to 58,744 tonnes, although persistent transfers of metal into Comex warehouses amid uncertainty over potential US import tariffs continued to influence global supply availability. Chilean copper production showed mixed trends, with Codelco output increasing nearly 9% year on year to 101,700 tonnes in August, while production at BHP controlled Escondida fell 27.6% to 76,100 tonnes and Collahuasi output declined 25.1% to 26,500 tonnes. However, the International Copper Study Group projected the global refined copper market to remain in surplus, with the surplus widening from 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027. Refined copper production is forecast to increase 0.4% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, supported by expanding smelting and refining capacity, while apparent refined copper usage is expected to grow 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively. Demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles, urbanisation, data centres and artificial intelligence infrastructure is expected to provide longer-term support. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 4.01% to 7,152 contracts alongside a price decrease of Rs 12.8. Copper has support at Rs 1,395.50, below which prices could test Rs 1,387. Resistance is placed at Rs 1,418, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 1,432.50.

Trading Ideas:

?  Copper trading range for the day is 1387.00-1432.50.

?  Copper dropped as dollar climbed to its highest level since April 2025 after fresh inflation figures strengthened expectations Fed tightening.

?  Copper output from Chilean state-run miner Codelco jumped nearly 9% yoy in August to 101,700 metric tons

?  China's imports of copper rose 20.7% from month ago to 461,000 tonnes in September

Zinc Rs 415.70 (-0.16%) ?

Zinc settled marginally lower by 0.16% at Rs 415.70, pressured by expectations of improved Chinese zinc concentrate availability as disrupted mines resumed operations following accidents and safety inspections. Chinese mine output is expected to increase month on month in October, potentially easing raw material constraints for smelters. However, supply concerns persisted as Chinese refined zinc production declined 1.9% month on month and 6.4% year on year in September 2026. Western refined zinc production fell 3.4% year on year in the first half of 2026 amid elevated energy costs and tight raw material availability, while Nyrstar's strategic review of its loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands raised concerns about potential production losses. In contrast, Japan's Mitsui Kinzoku plans to produce 117,700 tonnes of refined zinc in the second half of fiscal 2026, an increase of 32% year on year. Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored zinc inventories rose 1.8% from the September 30 report, adding to near-term supply concerns. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global refined zinc market recorded a surplus of 13,000 tonnes in July, as refined production increased 0.3% to 1.190 million tonnes, exceeding demand of 1.177 million tonnes, which rose 0.56% after three consecutive months of contraction. Meanwhile, global zinc mine production declined 8% year on year to approximately 995,000 tonnes in July, marking its fifth consecutive monthly decline and the steepest fall since May 2024. China's net imports of refined zinc plunged 79% year on year to 38,000 tonnes during January to June, reflecting expanding domestic smelting capacity and improving self-sufficiency. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 3.88% to 2,007 contracts alongside a price decrease of Rs 0.65. Zinc has support at Rs 414, below which prices could test Rs 412. Resistance is placed at Rs 418, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 420.50.

Trading Ideas:

?  Zinc trading range for the day is 412.00-420.50.

?  Zinc dropped as Chinese zinc-concentrate output to rise in October as disrupted mines recover and maintenance operations resume.

?  Global zinc market shifted into a modest surplus in July, as refined supply slightly exceeded demand.

?  In September 2026, China's refined zinc production fell 1.9% MoM and 6.4% YoY.

Aluminium Rs320.25 (-1.40%) ?

Aluminium settled lower by 1.4% at Rs 320.25, pressured by easing supply disruption concerns in the Gulf region as passage restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz eased and smelter operations gradually recovered. Expectations of rising Indonesian production and increasing Chinese exports added to the bearish outlook, although declining visible inventories continued to provide underlying support. Indonesian aluminium exports exceeded 150,000 tonnes in August, while Chinese aluminium exports increased 17.2% year on year. According to Citi, accelerating supply growth outside China could shift the global aluminium market from a deficit of 941,000 tonnes in 2026 to a surplus of 1.8 million tonnes in 2027. Macquarie also reduced its forecast global market deficit for 2026 to 820,000 tonnes, citing faster-than-expected Middle Eastern smelter restarts, and projected average aluminium prices of $3,050 per tonne in 2027 compared with $3,325 in 2026. Japanese buyers agreed to pay premiums of $255 per tonne for October-December shipments, down 35% from the previous quarter, reflecting improved supply availability. Global aluminium production declined 1.5% year on year in August, while Chinese refined aluminium output rose 3% to a record 3.87 million tonnes. In contrast, Gulf Cooperation Council production plunged 43% year on year to 299,000 tonnes, highlighting continuing regional supply constraints. China's unwrought aluminium and semis exports reached 643,000 tonnes in July, up 18.6% year on year, while cumulative exports during January-July increased 16.7% to 4.04 million tonnes. Inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 7.8% from the September 30 report, while London Metal Exchange stocks declined by 15,575 tonnes, indicating tighter available inventories despite expectations of improving supply. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 7.67% to 3,610 contracts alongside a price decrease of Rs 4.55. Aluminium has support at Rs 317, below which prices could test Rs 314. Resistance is placed at Rs 325.50, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 330.50.

Trading Ideas:

?  Aluminium trading range for the day is 314.00-330.50.

?  Aluminium fell as some easing in passage restrictions in Hormuz has reconnected Gulf smelters to the world.

?  New supply from Indonesia is also ramping up, with exports topping 150,000 tons in August.

?  Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 7.8% from last release on Sep 30

Turmeric Rs 24,574 (+0.61%) ?

Turmeric settled higher by 0.61% at Rs 24,574, supported by renewed demand, reduced stockist selling, and tight spot availability as holders withheld stocks following earlier liquidation. Concerns over drought-related crop losses in Karnataka and potential El Nino impacts also supported prices, although improving monsoon conditions across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka limited further gains. According to a joint survey by Karnataka's Horticulture and Revenue Departments and KSDMA, turmeric crop losses affected 13,446 hectares, valued at Rs 188.24 crore, against the state's estimated cultivation area of 18,000-20,000 hectares. However, industry estimates suggest India's turmeric production could increase approximately 15% in 2026, supported by an estimated 20% expansion in acreage, particularly in Maharashtra. Carry-forward stocks have declined to around 15 lakh bags from over 20 lakh bags last season, tightening the overall availability buffer. Improved rainfall and reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have eased crop damage concerns, while re-sowing in North Karnataka has been completed following rainfall. Export demand remained mixed, with India's turmeric exports falling 10% year on year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April-July increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes against 63,020 tonnes last year. Exports to Turkey rose 431% to 3,007 tonnes, while shipments to Sri Lanka increased 644% to 156 tonnes and Nigeria surged 983% to 69 tonnes. Demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from European Union buyers provided additional support, although stricter residue regulations pressured non-compliant commercial-grade stocks. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, prices closed at Rs 22,668.35, up 0.06%. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 13.66% to 17,185 contracts alongside a price increase of Rs 150. Turmeric has support at Rs 23,950, below which prices could test Rs 23,320. Resistance is placed at Rs 25,200, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 25,820.

Trading Ideas:

?  Turmeric trading range for the day is 23320-25820.

?  Turmeric gained on renewed demand and reduced stockist selling, getting support from tight spot supply.

?  Concerns were lingering amid worries about El Niño–type patterns and the potential impact of dry spells on yield formation

?  Stockholders, are now withholding stocks after earlier liquidation phases, effectively tightening spot availability just as demand improves.

?  In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 22668.35 Rupees gained by 0.06 percent.

Jeera Rs  26,325 (+1.31%) 

Jeera settled higher by 1.31% at Rs 26,325, supported by tightening supplies of premium quality bold seeds, reduced arrivals in major trading centres, and expectations of improved export demand ahead of the festival season. Farmers have been holding back stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing window, while European and North American buyers have resumed purchases of residue-compliant, high-specification cumin. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt logistics and weigh on demand from traditional buyers. India's cumin production is estimated at 90-92 lakh bags this year, compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, reflecting reduced sowing acreage. Gujarat production is projected at 42-45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan output is estimated at 48-50 lakh bags. Internationally, adverse weather has reduced China's estimated production to 70,000-80,000 tonnes from earlier expectations of around 100,000 tonnes. Syria's production is estimated at 9,000-10,000 tonnes, Turkey at 10,000-11,000 tonnes, and Afghanistan at 10,000-12,000 tonnes. These production estimates could influence India's export competitiveness, particularly as supplies from Turkey and Syria improve. Despite concerns over lower production and tightening availability of export-grade seeds, upside remains limited by farmer selling to generate cash for the upcoming season, rising NCDEX warehouse stocks, and cautious procurement by industrial spice processors. Most bulk consumers continue to follow hand-to-mouth purchasing rather than aggressive forward buying, while favourable weather has accelerated harvesting and deliveries. Blight outbreaks in parts of Gujarat have also affected crop quality and harvestable volumes. In Unjha, a major spot market, prices closed at Rs 25,577.95, down 0.38%, indicating a divergence from futures performance. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.14% to 9,012 contracts alongside a price increase of Rs 340. Jeera has support at Rs 25,690, below which prices could test Rs 25,060. Resistance is placed at Rs 26,730, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 27,140.

Trading Ideas:

?  Jeera trading range for the day is 25060-27140.

?  Jeera prices gained amid continued tightness in nearby months with traders monitoring early sowing signals and festival demand.

?  Farmers were reportedly holding back cumin stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing window.

?  Improved overseas buying is important and export demand can absorb domestic supply during the lean season.

?  In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 25577.95 Rupees dropped by 0.38 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views