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Gold 

Gold prices settled lower by 0.91% at Rs 153,466, extending profit-taking pressure after US inflation data reduced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike. US Consumer Price Index inflation eased to 3.4% year-on-year in July from 3.5% in June, matching market expectations and marking a second consecutive month of cooling annual inflation. Markets now price a 36% probability of a rate hike at the September Fed meeting, down sharply from around 55% a week earlier, keeping attention focused on the upcoming Producer Price Index for further signals on inflation and monetary policy. Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee maintained a cautious stance, highlighting greater concern over persistent inflation than labour-market weakness. Geopolitical uncertainty remains supportive for bullion, with the US-Iran conflict and unresolved negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz continuing to create safe-haven demand, although reports of an extended ceasefire have moderated immediate risk premiums. Physical demand remained subdued in major Asian markets. Indian gold discounts widened to as much as $47 per ounce from $44 last week, while Chinese premiums narrowed to $3-$5 from $5-$8. The World Gold Council reported that India’s June-quarter net gold imports declined 23% year-on-year to 98.1 tonnes, while demand fell 6% to 131.4 tonnes. Globally, second-quarter gold demand remained steady at 1,268.9 tonnes as central-bank purchases surged to 289 tonnes, offsetting 45 tonnes of ETF outflows. London vault holdings increased 0.77% month-on-month to 9,464 tonnes valued at $1.2 trillion. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 5.59% to 9,766 contracts alongside a Rs 1,416 fall in prices. Gold is currently finding support near Rs 152,755, while a break below this level could expose Rs 152,050. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 154,655, and sustained movement above this level could trigger a recovery towards Rs 155,850.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 152050-155850.

* Gold prices slipped as investors took profits following U.S. inflation data that sharply reduced expectations for Fed rate hike.

* The U.S. consumer price index rose 3.4% in the 12 months through July, down from 3.5% in June and in line with expectations.

* On the geopolitical front, the United States and Iran remain deadlocked over efforts to permanently end their five-month-old war.

Silver

Silver prices settled lower by 1% at Rs 235,447 as the US dollar remained steady after US inflation data showed a mild easing in annual headline and core inflation, reducing immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. US weekly initial jobless claims increased by 9,000 to 209,000 in the first week of August, above expectations of 202,000, while continuing claims declined by 22,000 to 1.777 million. US producer prices were unchanged in July after a revised 0.1% decline in June, while core producer prices rose 0.2% month-on-month, slowing from a revised 0.4% increase previously. However, renewed Middle East tensions remain a potential inflationary risk, particularly if disruptions to energy supplies push oil prices higher and complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Silver continues to receive structural support from industrial applications, including solar-panel manufacturing, electronics, electric vehicles and electricity-grid investment. Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores surged 62.5% year-on-year in June to 219,000 tonnes, highlighting continued industrial activity. London silver vault holdings increased 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes at end-June, valued at $53.1 billion, equivalent to approximately 936,052 silver bars. The global silver market is expected to remain in structural deficit for a sixth consecutive year, with the deficit projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Total demand is forecast to decline 2%, while industrial fabrication may fall 3% to a four-year low, partly due to weaker global growth risks from the Iran conflict. In contrast, coin and bar demand is expected to rise 18%, supported by stronger US buying. Global silver supply is projected to decline 2%, while 762 million troy ounces have been drawn from stocks since 2021, maintaining longer-term liquidity concerns. Technically, the market remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 1.35% to 10,816 contracts alongside a Rs 2,388 decline in prices. Silver is currently supported near Rs 233,500, and a break below this level could expose Rs 231,550. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 237,700, while a sustained move above this level could open the way towards Rs 239,950.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 231550-239950.

* Silver dropped after U.S. headline and core inflation eased slightly from June, easing pressure on Fed to raise interest rates.

* The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US rose by 9,000 to 209,000 on the first week of August.

* US producer prices were unchanged in July 2026, following a revised 0.1% fall in June and compared with market expectations of a 0.2% gain

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled lower by 1.35% at rs 7,821 as downward revisions to global oil demand forecasts outweighed supply concerns arising from the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, marking the fourth consecutive downward revision, while the International Energy Agency expects oil consumption to contract by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026, compared with its previous forecast of a 1 million barrels per day decline, citing restricted fuel supplies and higher prices. Prices also faced pressure from a sharp build in U.S. commercial crude inventories, which increased by 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million barrels in the week ended August 7, the largest weekly gain since January 2023 and well above expectations for a 1.4 million-barrel draw. Cushing inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels, while refinery crude runs rose by 26,000 barrels per day and refinery utilization declined by 0.3 percentage points. U.S. gasoline inventories fell by 1 million barrels to 208.7 million barrels, while distillate stocks declined marginally by 10,000 barrels to 107.1 million barrels. Net U.S. crude imports increased by 1.77 million barrels per day, contributing to the inventory build. Geopolitical risks continue to provide a floor for prices, with no reported progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and persistent attacks or disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, two critical routes for Middle Eastern energy exports. OPEC remains less pessimistic than the IEA regarding the impact of the Iran conflict and has raised its 2027 oil demand growth forecast. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 9.03% to 8,012 contracts alongside a rs 107 fall in prices. Crude oil is currently finding support near Rs 7,658, and a break below this level could expose Rs 7,496. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 7,965, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery towards Rs 8,110.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7496-8110.

* Crude oil prices fell as forecasters lowered global oil demand projections for 2026.

* OPEC lowered its world oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 580,000 barrels per day in its monthly oil market report.

* IEA said it expects a 1.6 million bpd contraction in consumption this year, down from a forecast of 1 million bpd last month

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled lower by 2.8% at Rs 260.6 as strong U.S. production and ample storage inventories outweighed continued weather-driven demand from the power sector. Hotter-than-normal weather is expected to persist through August 28, supporting electricity consumption for air conditioning and limiting the downside in gas prices. Average U.S. Lower 48 production increased to 111.2 billion cubic feet per day in August, up from the July monthly record of 110.7 bcfd, while record output and relatively mild spring weather have kept inventories above the five-year average since March. U.S. natural gas storage increased by 36 billion cubic feet in the week ended August 7, exceeding market expectations of 31 bcf and the five-year average injection of 33 bcf. Total stockpiles reached 3.153 trillion cubic feet, 0.8% below last year but 6.7% above the five-year average. Average Lower 48 gas demand, including exports, is forecast to decline from 115.4 bcfd this week to 112.5 bcfd next week, while flows to the nine major U.S. LNG export facilities eased to 17.1 bcfd in August from 17.2 bcfd in July and a record 17.4 bcfd in June. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects both production and domestic consumption to reach record levels in 2026, with dry gas output forecast at 111.2 bcfd and consumption at 92.0 bcfd. LNG exports are projected to rise to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, although the latest forecast was slightly reduced due to maintenance at Freeport LNG. Despite strong production, sustained heat and power-sector demand provide a near-term cushion, while elevated inventories remain a bearish factor. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 8.3% to 46,513 contracts alongside a rs 7.5 decline in prices. Natural gas is finding support near Rs 257.5, and a break below this level could expose Rs 254.5. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 265.6, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery towards Rs 270.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 254.5-270.7.

* Natural gas fell as strong production and ample inventories outweighed continued weather-driven demand.

* Agency lowers August LNG export forecast slightly because of Freeport LNG plant maintenance

* EIA projects October gas inventories reaching 3.985 trillion cubic feet, highest level since 2016

Copper

Copper prices settled marginally higher by 0.05% at Rs 1,375.85 as US inflation data had limited impact on expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September interest-rate decision, while inventory outflows from LME warehouses and uncertainty over potential US tariffs on refined copper provided downside support. However, weaker Chinese import demand remained a concern, with the Yangshan copper premium falling to a four-week low of $96 per tonne from $115 on July 22, indicating reduced buying interest as elevated prices weighed on consumption. Supply-side risks increased after Antofagasta cut its 2026 copper production forecast to 625,000-655,000 tonnes from 650,000-700,000 tonnes following the Los Pelambres mine shutdown caused by extreme rainfall in Chile. Goldman Sachs sharply raised its forecast for the 2026 refined copper deficit outside the US to 640,000 tonnes from 60,000 tonnes. Chilean mine output remained mixed, with Escondida production rising 45.8% year-on-year to 111,400 tonnes and Collahuasi increasing 1.7% to 34,900 tonnes, while Codelco output declined 4.8% to 114,400 tonnes. COMEX speculative net long positions increased by 11,307 contracts to 77,796. The ICSG reported an 18,000-tonne refined copper surplus in May, compared with a 145,000-tonne deficit in April, while the January-May surplus reached 221,000 tonnes. China’s July unwrought copper imports declined 11.5% year-on-year to 425,000 tonnes, while January-July imports fell 6.2% to 2.92 million tonnes. Chinese refined copper output rose 2.5% year-on-year to a record 1.334 million tonnes, whereas copper product output declined 2.3% to 2.16 million tonnes, highlighting weaker downstream demand. Technically, the market remains under short covering, with open interest declining 3.94% to 9,580 contracts while prices gained Rs 0.65. Copper is finding support near Rs 1,362.70, and a break below this level could expose Rs 1,349.50. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 1,383.90, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery towards Rs 1,391.90.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1349.5-1391.9.

* Copper settled flat U.S. inflation data did not affect expectations for next month's Fed interest rate decision.

* However, downside seen limited amid inventory outflows from the LME amid uncertainty about potential U.S. tariffs on imports of refined copper.

* Chilean miner Antofagasta cut its 2026 copper output estimate to between 625,000 and 655,000 metric tons, from a previous forecast of 650,000 to 700,000 tons.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled marginally lower by 0.09% at Rs 395.20 as elevated prices weakened demand and discouraged buyers in China, the world’s largest consumer. However, downside remained limited by tight mine supply, low overseas inventories and strengthening LME calendar spreads, which indicate persistent near-term market tightness. LME zinc inventories declined to 95,000 tonnes, while canceled warrants remained at a quarterly high and on-warrant stocks slipped below key levels, increasing the risk of a potential supply squeeze. The cash LME zinc contract traded around $60 per tonne above the three-month forward contract, easing from a premium of more than $73 a week earlier but remaining in steep backwardation. Minmetals Resources reported zinc production of 105,800 tonnes and maintained its full-year guidance at 215,000-235,000 tonnes. Glencore reported own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes in the first half of 2026, down 21% year-on-year, while retaining its full-year guidance of 700,000-740,000 tonnes. Boliden’s zinc concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes. MMG produced 106,000 tonnes in the first half, representing 48% of its annual guidance, while Dugald River output increased 3% year-on-year to 87,000 tonnes. The global refined zinc surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April, although the January-May surplus reached 163,000 tonnes compared with 44,000 tonnes a year earlier. China’s refined zinc production increased 10% year-on-year to 641,000 tonnes in May, indicating strong smelter activity and improving domestic availability. China’s central bank also reiterated support for economic growth through appropriately loose monetary policy. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 6.2% to 2,632 contracts alongside a ?0.35 fall in prices. Zinc is finding support near Rs 391.80, and a break below this level could expose Rs 388.40. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 397.10, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery towards Rs 399.00.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 388.4-399.

* Zinc dropped as elevated prices weakened demand and discouraged buyers in China.

* MMG produces 106,000 tonnes of zinc in H1 and maintains 2026 guidance

* China's central bank said it would continue to implement the appropriately loose monetary policy.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled lower by 1.73% at Rs 346.80 as improving supply prospects from the Middle East and the expected return of war-damaged smelting capacity eased concerns over regional shortages, despite stalled U.S.-Iran peace negotiations and continued risks to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Emirates Global Aluminium said its Al Taweelah smelter was operating at 18% of capacity and expected to return to previous output levels in early 2027, improving supply from a region that accounted for around 10% of global aluminium production before the conflict. Australia’s largest aluminium smelter also secured a $1.8 billion government bailout, supporting continued operations. However, downside remained limited by reduced feedstock production at Norsk Hydro’s Brazilian facility and persistently low visible inventories. The European physical premium eased to $487 per tonne from a May peak of $621, although it remains 36% higher since the war began. LME aluminium inventories declined to 254,900 tonnes from 262,650 tonnes on August 3 and have fallen sharply from 416,775 tonnes at end-March, highlighting a much thinner inventory buffer. Global primary aluminium output declined 1.5% year-on-year to 5.98 million tonnes in June, while Gulf production plunged 33% to 332,000 tonnes from 507,000 tonnes a year earlier. Output outside China fell 6.7% year-on-year in July, while Japanese aluminium inventories declined 7.8% month-on-month to 220,300 tonnes. China’s aluminium and semi-finished product exports reached 643,000 tonnes in July, up 18.6% year-on-year but down 9.6% month-on-month, while January-July exports increased 16.7% to 4.04 million tonnes. Rising Chinese and Indonesian exports are expected to partially offset Gulf supply losses. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 8.81% to 3,756 contracts alongside a Rs 6.10 fall in prices. Aluminium is finding support near Rs 344.80, and a break below this level could expose Rs 342.80. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 350.10, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery towards Rs 353.40.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 342.8-353.4.

* Aluminium dropped as improving supply prospects from the Middle East, and the expected return of smelting capacity.

* EGA said its Al Taweelah smelter was operating at 18% of capacity and is expected to return to prior output levels in early 2027.

* Australia’s biggest aluminum smelter secured a $1.8 billion government bailout, allowing operations to continue and further boosting supply prospects.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled sharply lower by 4.29% at Rs 19,968 as revival of monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka eased earlier concerns over dry weather and potential crop losses. Improved rainfall and replenishment of key reservoirs in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have strengthened water availability during the vegetative stage, while re-sowing in North Karnataka has been completed following improved precipitation. The improved weather has reduced immediate production concerns, although the impact of El Niño and rainfall distribution during the coming weeks remain key monitorables for crop development. Turmeric acreage is expected to increase 16.05% year-on-year from 2025 and remain above the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares, while elevated prices are encouraging farmers to expand cultivation during the ongoing Kharif season. However, overall supply remains structurally tight as carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season. Farmer selling during the peak harvest window has increased near-term availability, while buyers remain cautious. European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations have led to rejection of non-IPM compliant lots, creating discounts for commercial-grade turmeric, although growing demand for Integrated Pest Management certified stocks is supportive. India’s turmeric exports declined marginally by 1% year-on-year to 18,960 tonnes in May 2026 from 19,205 tonnes, while April-May exports remained broadly stable at 33,999 tonnes. Export growth to China, Oman, Yemen and Italy remained strong, with China shipments during April-May surging 4,631% to 2,021 tonnes. In Nizamabad, spot turmeric declined 2.13% to Rs 19,922.40. Technically, the market remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising sharply by 40.98% to 24,960 contracts alongside an Rs 896 decline in prices. Turmeric is finding support near Rs 19,506, and a break below this level could expose Rs 19,042. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 20,694, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery towards Rs 21,418.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 19042-21418.

* Turmeric dropped as revival of monsoon activity in mid-July eased dry-weather fears.

* Re-sowing completed in North Karnataka following rainfall, crop conditions improve.

* Filling up of key reservoirs in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh ensured reliable water supply for the vegetative phase, dampening crop failure speculation.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 19922.4 Rupees dropped by -2.13 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled lower by 0.89% at Rs 20,710 as farmers aggressively liquidated stocks to generate cash flow for Kharif sowing, while favorable weather in North-West India enabled faster harvesting and drying, accelerating arrivals. Rising NCDEX warehouse stocks have reduced the urgency for spot procurement, while industrial spice grinders and domestic processors remain cautious, preferring hand-to-mouth buying and avoiding aggressive forward coverage. However, downside remained limited by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, with arrivals at major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan beginning to taper significantly. Blight outbreaks in key Gujarat growing areas have also reduced the quality and quantity of harvestable produce. Current estimates place India’s cumin production at 90-92 lakh bags, down sharply from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. Global supply concerns remain mixed, as adverse weather has reduced China’s production estimate to 70,000-80,000 tonnes from earlier expectations of around 1 lakh tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are estimated to produce 9,000-10,000 tonnes, 10,000-11,000 tonnes and 10,000-12,000 tonnes respectively. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to affect logistics and demand from traditional buyers, while improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria are pressuring Indian export premiums. European and North American buyers have returned selectively for residue-compliant and high-specification lots. India’s jeera exports declined 26% year-on-year to 17,177 tonnes in May 2026, while April-May exports fell 22% to 33,431 tonnes. Growth in shipments to Singapore, Yemen, Mexico and Kenya provided some support but was insufficient to offset weaker exports to traditional markets. In Unjha, spot prices declined 0.41% to Rs 20,502. Technically, the market remains under fresh selling, with open interest rising 5.1% to 6,249 contracts alongside a Rs 185 decline in prices. Jeera is finding support near Rs 20,610, and a break below this level could expose Rs 20,510. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 20,880, while a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery towards Rs 21,050.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20510-21050.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the Kharif sowing season.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected.

* NCDEX warehouse stocks have shown a steady build-up, reducing the urgency for spot procurement by traders.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20502 Rupees dropped by -0.41 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views