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Gold

Gold prices moved higher, settling up by 0.62% at 152,699, as cautious optimism around potential progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations lent support while limiting aggressive safe-haven flows. The extension of ceasefire arrangements in the Middle East and expectations that diplomatic channels remain open helped stabilize sentiment, even as underlying geopolitical risks persist. At the macro level, the global economy is beginning to feel the strain of the energy shock triggered by the conflict, with rising production costs and slowing activity across sectors. Meanwhile, U.S. labour market data remained broadly stable, with a slight uptick in jobless claims, indicating resilience despite growing uncertainty. In a notable development, CME Group reduced initial margins on COMEX gold futures, potentially improving liquidity and participation in the market. Demand dynamics remain a key pillar for gold. China’s gold imports surged to 162 tonnes in March, the highest in two years, while the central bank extended its buying streak to 17 consecutive months, taking total reserves to a record 2,313 tonnes. Physical demand in China also strengthened, with premiums rising significantly. In contrast, India saw subdued demand due to elevated prices, although tighter supply conditions pushed domestic premiums to their highest levels in over two months. On the global trade front, Swiss gold exports rose sharply, particularly to the UK and China, reflecting shifting bullion flows. However, India’s imports declined amid regulatory delays, and jewellery exports remained weak due to global demand challenges. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 2.59% even as prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at 151,245, with a break below potentially testing 149,790. On the upside, resistance is placed at 153,660, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 154,620.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 149790-154620.

* Gold gained as cautious optimism emerged over potential progress in US-Iran peace negotiations.

* Number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits increased slightly, pointing to continued labour market stability in April.

* CME Group cut the initial margin on its COMEX 100 gold futures to 6% from 7%.

Silver

Silver prices moved higher, settling up by 1.29% at 244,636, supported by a softer dollar and continued geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Middle East. While prices saw a recovery in the latest session, the broader trend remains cautious, with the metal still on track for a weekly decline of nearly 7% amid slow progress in peace negotiations. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has kept energy prices elevated, fueling inflation concerns across global markets. This, in turn, has created a mixed environment for silver—while geopolitical risks typically support safe-haven demand, rising inflation and the possibility of tighter monetary policy tend to weigh on non-yielding assets. Economic indicators further highlighted underlying stress, with the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index revised up slightly to 49.8, but still marking historically weak levels. On the policy front, expectations remain that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the near term. Meanwhile, CME Group’s decision to reduce margins on COMEX silver futures is likely to improve market participation and liquidity. Demand from China continues to be a major supportive factor. Imports surged to a record 836 metric tons in March, nearly triple the long-term average, driven by strong retail investment demand and aggressive stockpiling by the photovoltaic (PV) sector. Elevated domestic prices in China have also encouraged global arbitrage flows into the country. In contrast, holdings in London vaults rose modestly, indicating adequate global supply conditions. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, reflected in a 10.87% drop in open interest alongside rising prices. Immediate support is seen at 240,095, with a break below likely to test 235,560. On the upside, resistance is placed at 247,360, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 250,090.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 235560-250090.

* Silver prices rose as dollar index fell as traders continued to focus on developments in the Middle East.

* The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index was revised up to 49.8 in April 2026 from an initial estimate of 47.6.

* The Fed is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged next week, with no further rate changes anticipated for the remainder of the year.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined sharply by 3.9% to settle at 8817, as improving sentiment around potential diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran weighed on the market. Despite the optimism, underlying tensions persist, with the U.S. maintaining a naval blockade on Iranian ports, continuing to restrict crude exports from the Persian Gulf. Activity in the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, with limited flows and isolated tanker movements highlighting ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. On the fundamentals, global supply-demand dynamics remain mixed. Strategic petroleum reserves stood near 2.5 billion barrels at the end of last year, providing a buffer against supply shocks. However, demand outlook has weakened notably. S&P Global revised down its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 bpd from 1.1 million bpd earlier, reflecting war-related disruptions, particularly across the Middle East and Asia. Similarly, OPEC trimmed its Q2 demand estimate by 500,000 bpd to 105.07 million bpd, citing temporary weakness due to geopolitical developments. In the U.S., inventory data showed a build in crude stocks by 1.9 million barrels to 465.7 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a draw, indicating softer near-term demand. However, refined products painted a tighter picture, with gasoline inventories falling by 4.6 million barrels and distillates declining by 3.4 million barrels, suggesting steady consumption. Net imports also rose, adding to supply pressure. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining by 9.06% to 11,003 while prices dropped RS.358. Crude oil finds immediate support at 8629, with a break below potentially testing 8440. On the upside, resistance is placed at 9128, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards 9438.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8440-9438.

* Crude oil dropped as hopes of diplomatic progress between the US and Iran improved sentiment.

* U.S. crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell, the Energy Information Administration.

* S&P Global cuts 2026 oil demand forecast by 700,000 bpd due to Iran war

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined by 1.77% to settle at 255.4, pressured by expectations of mild weather and subdued demand through early May. Reduced heating and cooling requirements have kept consumption weak, with even power and gas prices in regions like Texas and California briefly turning negative due to ample renewable energy supply. This soft demand environment continues to support strong storage injections, weighing on overall market sentiment. On the supply side, production trends remain mixed. Average output in the U.S. Lower 48 states edged lower to 110.2 bcfd in April from 110.4 bcfd in March, with daily production slipping to an 11-week low of 108.1 bcfd amid curtailed output by major producers responding to low prices. However, the broader outlook remains bearish, as the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects record production levels of 109.6 bcfd in 2026 and 112.6 bcfd in 2027, while demand is expected to decline in the near term. Additionally, LSEG forecasts total demand, including exports, to ease from 103.7 bcfd this week to around 100 bcfd over the next two weeks. Inventory data further reinforced the bearish tone. U.S. energy firms injected 103 bcf into storage for the week ended April 17, significantly above expectations and well above both last year’s build of 77 bcf and the five-year average of 64 bcf. Total stockpiles have risen to 2.063 trillion cubic feet, standing about 7% above both last year and the five-year average, highlighting ample supply conditions. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising by 19.94% to 26,323 while prices declined. Natural gas finds immediate support at 251.4, with a break below potentially testing 247.5. On the upside, resistance is seen at 259.6, and a move above could extend gains towards 263.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 247.5-263.9.

* Natural gas slid on forecasts for the weather to remain mild and demand low through early May

* Mild weather and low demand to boost gas storage levels to 8% above normal.

* Some Texas and California power and gas prices turn negative as renewables meet demand

Copper

Copper prices edged higher by 0.07% to settle at 1293.35, supported by tightening near-term supply conditions as global smelters enter a concentrated maintenance phase during the second quarter. This seasonal disruption, combined with declining inventories in key exchanges, has provided underlying support to prices. Additionally, restocking activity in China ahead of the Labor Day holiday has further strengthened short-term demand sentiment. On the supply-demand front, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projects the global refined copper market to shift into a surplus of 96,000 metric tons in 2026 and widen further to 377,000 metric tons in 2027, primarily due to slower demand growth and increased secondary production. Global refined consumption is now expected to grow by 1.6% in 2026, with China leading demand expansion at 1.9%, while Europe and Japan remain subdued. On the production side, refined output is forecast to rise modestly by 0.4% in 2026 before accelerating in 2027 as new capacities come online. Inventory trends remain mixed. Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks dropped sharply by 16.3%, indicating tightening domestic availability, while COMEX inventories rose to a record 603,745 short tons due to arbitrage-driven inflows into the U.S. Meanwhile, China’s imports of unwrought copper fell 10.9% in March, though domestic refined output increased by 8.7% year-on-year to 1.33 million tons. Globally, mine supply remains uneven, with Peru posting a 2.9% increase in output, while Chile and major mines like Escondida reported declines. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising by 11.39% to 10,564 alongside marginal price gains. Copper is finding immediate support at 1287.8, with a downside extension to 1282.3. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1297.8, and a breakout above this level could push prices towards 1302.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1282.3-1302.3.

* Copper gains as global smelters are entering a concentrated maintenance period in Q2, which is tightening the supply side.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by SHFE fell 16.3 % from last Friday.

* The ICSG reported a world refined copper surplus of about 96,000 metric tons for 2026.

Zinc

Zinc prices gained 1.25% to settle at 349.45, supported by tightening supply conditions and improving near-term demand signals. Declining LME inventories and a narrowing Cash-3M contango indicate a firmer market structure, while falling treatment charges (TCs) for zinc concentrate highlight constraints in raw material availability. Additionally, inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped by 1.8%, and SMM data showed a sharp weekly decline of 12,100 mt in port inventories, reinforcing the tight concentrate backdrop. Fundamentally, supply disruptions and inventory drawdowns continue to underpin prices. Ongoing mine closures and operational challenges have limited immediate supply, while improving industrial activity in China has supported demand expectations. China’s factory activity returning to expansion and rising producer prices suggest strengthening industrial consumption, although concerns about the broader economic impact of the Middle East conflict remain a limiting factor. On the supply side, developments such as the restart of Boliden’s Tara mine and ramp-up at Ivanhoe Mines’ Kipushi project are expected to keep the global market in a modest surplus. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported a surplus of 9,200 metric tons in January, though lower than last year’s levels. Meanwhile, Peru’s zinc concentrate output declined 19.3% month-on-month, highlighting ongoing supply variability. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expects a small global surplus in 2026, with demand projected to grow around 2% annually through 2027, though tightening conditions may re-emerge beyond 2026 as mine supply growth slows. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining by 9.84% to 1,549 while prices gained Rs.4.3. Zinc is finding support at 345.7, with a break below potentially testing 342. On the upside, resistance is seen at 351.9, and a move above could extend gains towards 354.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 342-354.4.

* Zinc gains as LME inventories declined and the Cash-3M contango narrowed, shifting the price upward.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.8% from last Friday, the exchange said

* Volcan forecast 2026 zinc output at 275,000-290,000 metric tons, versus 235,500 tons in 2025.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged higher by 0.73% to settle at 374.15, supported by persistent supply concerns stemming from the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The continued closure of this critical shipping route, along with damage to key refineries in the UAE and Bahrain, has intensified fears of a prolonged supply shock. Market participants increasingly view the situation as a “black swan” event, with expectations of significant shortages in the global aluminium market during 2026. Fundamentally, tightening inventories continue to underpin prices. LME aluminium stocks declined to 393,800 mt, while inventories at major Japanese ports dropped 7.4% to 279,800 mt, highlighting tightening physical availability. Japanese buyers have agreed to elevated premiums of $350–$353 per ton for Q2 shipments, the highest in over a decade, reflecting strong supply-side stress. Production data also indicates constraints, with Gulf region output falling 6% month-on-month to 15,963 tons per day, underscoring the impact of geopolitical disruptions on supply chains. On the demand side, China remains supportive, with imports of unwrought aluminium rising 6.9% year-on-year in March to 360,000 tons, while Q1 imports increased 1.6%. Domestic production also grew 2.7% YoY to 3.85 million tons in March. However, rising output has not been sufficient to offset global supply risks. JP Morgan projects a 1.9 million ton deficit in 2026, with prices potentially reaching $4,000 per ton amid tightening fundamentals. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining by 11.7% to 2,354 while prices gained Rs.2.7. Aluminium is finding support at 371.4, with a break below potentially testing 368.4. On the upside, resistance is seen at 376.8, and a move above could extend gains towards 379.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 368.4-379.2.

* Aluminium gains as the continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz threatens a prolonged disruption to Middle Eastern supply.

* The global aluminium market is already experiencing a "black swan" supply shock due to disruptions stemming from the war

* LME aluminium inventory continued to decline, with the latest level at 393,800 mt, reinforcing supply concerns.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by 0.32% to settle at 16,422, primarily due to increased arrivals across key mandis such as Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli, which created a temporary supply glut. Farmers accelerated stock liquidation to meet liquidity needs for upcoming Kharif sowing, while arrivals of high-moisture, late-harvested produce led to discounting in average-quality lots. Additionally, easing weather concerns post-harvest removed earlier risk premiums, and export uncertainties linked to Middle East tensions prompted some buyers to delay commitments. Despite near-term pressure, underlying fundamentals remain supportive. Arrivals are still below normal for the peak season in several regions, while quality concerns such as rhizome rot have reduced the availability of premium “Double Polished” turmeric. Farmers and stockists in key hubs like Sangli and Nizamabad are holding back high-quality stocks in anticipation of higher prices, with “Salem Fali” varieties commanding premiums up to ?20,000 per quintal. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year, tightening overall availability. Moreover, demand from export markets remains stable, with EU interest in IPM-certified turmeric and active procurement from Bangladesh supporting sentiment. Trade data presents a mixed outlook, with January exports declining 19% YoY, while cumulative Apr–Jan exports rose 2%, indicating steady medium-term demand. Imports have dropped sharply by 41% cumulatively, reflecting reduced reliance on overseas supply. Production has been revised lower to 1.14 million tons, and concerns over a below-normal monsoon are adding a longer-term bullish bias. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining by 3.28% to 17,085 while prices eased Rs.52. Turmeric finds support at 16,308, with further downside towards 16,192. Resistance is seen at 16,604, and a breakout above could push prices towards 16,784.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16192-16784.

* Turmeric dropped as daily arrivals across Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli have accelerated, creating a temporary "supply glut".

* Lingering tensions in the Middle East continue to complicate export logistics, causing some buyers to defer commitments.

* The absence of fresh weather disruptions during the post-harvest phase has effectively removed the "weather risk premium."

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15977.65 Rupees gained by 0.27 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined by -1.46% to settle at 20,860, primarily pressured by elevated arrivals and aggressive farmer selling. Daily arrivals at the Unjha mandi remained high at around 28,500 bags, creating a near-term supply glut. Fresh crop inflows from Rajasthan and faster harvesting due to favorable weather conditions further intensified supply pressure, while farmers continued offloading stocks to generate liquidity ahead of the Kharif sowing season. Despite the current weakness, underlying fundamentals remain relatively supportive. Adverse weather events, including hailstorms and unseasonal rains in Rajasthan and North-West India, have impacted crop quality, particularly reducing the availability of premium “A-grade” and Sortex-quality jeera. Additionally, Gujarat’s production is estimated to decline nearly 27% due to lower acreage and yield concerns, while disease outbreaks have further impacted output. National production is pegged at 90–92 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Globally, reduced output expectations in China (70–80 thousand tons) and stable but limited production from Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan add to supply-side concerns. However, export performance remains weak, with January shipments down 48% YoY and Apr–Jan exports declining 15%, reflecting subdued global demand. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining by -2.01% to 9,339, indicating liquidation of existing long positions. Jeera is currently finding support at 20,700, and a break below could push prices towards 20,530. On the upside, resistance is seen at 21,140, with a breakout potentially leading to a test of 21,410 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20530-21410.

* Jeera dropped as daily arrivals at the Unjha mandi have stabilized at high level, approx. 28,500 bags, creating a visible supply glut.

* Favorable weather conditions across North-West India, resulting in a "supply spike".

* Farmers are actively offloading stocks this week to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season, adding continuous sell-side pressure.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21283.6 Rupees dropped by -0.21 percent.

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