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Gold closed with a modest gain of 0.19%, settling at 63320, amidst signs of recovery in US Treasury yields. The broader sentiment surrounding gold remains positive as investors anticipate a reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) starting in March, particularly with underlying inflation showing a clear downward trend. The consistent sell-off of the US Dollar, driven by expectations of early rate cuts, continues to support the precious metal's Dollar-denominated value. Contrary to investor expectations, Fed policymakers view discussions on rate cuts as premature in the current scenario, citing a lack of confidence in inflation reaching the 2% target. The US Department of Labor's report on Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending December 22 showed a rise to 218K, surpassing the consensus of 210K and the previous reading of 206K. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong surged by about 37% in November compared to the previous month, reaching 36.801 metric tons. Total gold imports via Hong Kong were up 37% at 46.049 tons, signaling robust demand from the world's top gold consumer. Technically, the market is undergoing short covering, with a -0.14% drop in open interest to settle at 15,163. Gold's support is identified at 63210, with a potential test of 63095 upon breaching this level. Resistance is expected at 63410, and a move above could lead to a test of 63495.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 63095-63495.
* Gold price remained in range amid recovery in US Treasury yields.
* The broader appeal for price is bullish as Fed may unwind its restrictive policy stance sooner.
* Fed policymakers see a high likelihood of a market reaction on rate-cut commentary from Fed Chairman Powell.

Silver

Silver experienced a marginal decline of -0.05%, settling at 74390, as profit booking took place following earlier gains driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Economic data, including an increase in weekly claims to 218K, surpassed the estimated 210K, while the core PCE index fell to 3.2% in November from 3.4% in October, below the predicted 3.3%. This data supports the narrative of a Fed inclined to cut interest rates amid a downtrend in inflation. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, market participants perceive an over 88% chance of the Fed implementing rate cuts in March, with the likelihood extending to over 65% for additional cuts in May. The bets on early rate cuts align with the drop in underlying inflation to 3.2% in November, below the Fed's projections at the end of December 2023. The Fed's potential for achieving a soft landing is bolstered by a steady Unemployment Rate around 3.7%, and consistent data showing lower layoffs compared to new payroll additions throughout 2023. The dovish sentiment is reinforced by the Commerce Department's report, indicating that the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose by just 0.1% in November. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation, with a -0.61% drop in open interest to settle at 14,756. Silver's support is identified at 74265, with a potential test of 74135 below this level. Resistance is expected at 74480, and a move above could lead to a test of 74565.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 74135-74565.
* Silver traded in range on anticipation of Fed rate cuts.
* Economic data showed an increase in weekly claims to 218K, surpassing the estimated 210K.
* The Fed is expected to start reducing interest rates as inflation in US economy is in a downtrend.

Crude oil

Crude oil recorded a modest gain of 0.33%, settling at 6027, despite eased concerns about shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, even as tensions persist in the Middle East. Denmark's Maersk's decision to route almost all container vessels through the Suez Canal reflects a positive outlook for global trade, while only diverting a few around Africa. In the U.S., crude oil stocks increased by 1.837 million barrels in the week ending December 22nd, marking the largest weekly gain since November 17th. The rise comes after a 0.939 million barrels increase in the previous week. The U.S. finalized contracts to purchase 3 million barrels of oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), following last year's historic sale. The purchased oil, averaging $77.31 per barrel, signifies a strategic move at a lower cost compared to the average of $95 per barrel in 2022. Approximately 14 million barrels have been acquired for replenishment, with around 4 million barrels returning to the SPR by February as oil companies return loaned oil. In Nigeria, exports of four main crude oil grades in February are expected to average about 657,000 barrels per day, a slight decrease from the previous month. Technically, the market is undergoing fresh buying, with a 1.26% increase in open interest to settle at 14,989. Crude oil's support is identified at 5984, with a potential test of 5941 below this level. Resistance is expected at 6053, and a move above could lead to a test of 6079.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5941-6079.
* Crude oil gains despite as concerns eased about shipping disruptions along the Red Sea route.
* US crude oil inventories rise the most in 5 weeks : API
* US buys 3 million barrels of oil for strategic reserve

Natural gas

Natural gas settled higher by 0.94%, closing at 213.9, driven by forecasts for colder weather that would increase heating demand and a storage withdrawal exceeding expectations. However, the upside remains limited due to record-high domestic natural gas production in the U.S., resulting in reserves 10% above the seasonal average. U.S. utilities withdrew 87 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage during the week ending December 22, 2023, surpassing market expectations of a 79 bcf draw. This compares with a withdrawal of 195 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2018-2022) average decrease of 123 bcf for this time of year. Despite the recent draw, robust production has kept inventories well-supplied. Meteorologists project warmer-than-normal weather through December 30, followed by a shift to colder-than-normal conditions from December 31 to January 6. Lower gas demand is expected this week due to limited heating demand during the Christmas week, but demand is anticipated to rise to 130.7 bcfd during the next week as colder weather is forecasted for January. From a technical perspective, the market is undergoing fresh buying, with a 1.62% increase in open interest to settle at 26,300. Natural gas's support is identified at 210.7, with a potential test of 207.5 below this level. Resistance is expected at 215.9, and a move above could lead to a test of 217.9. The technical indicators suggest a positive trend, with the market reacting to weather forecasts and storage dynamics. However, the impact of production levels on overall supply remains a key factor influencing natural gas prices.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 207.5-217.9.
* Natural gas gains boosted by forecasts for colder weather that would boost heating demand
* US utilities pulled 87 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storages during the week that ended December 22, 2023
* U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, at 120.5 bcfd this week

Copper

Copper closed marginally higher by 0.08%, settling at 731.1, as demand in China experienced a slowdown following a recent burst of restocking, resulting in premiums reversing to discounts of 110 yuan per ton. China's economic strategy, outlined in the interim report on its 14th five-year plan, focuses on enhancing domestic demand to expedite recovery and promote stable growth. The plan prioritizes the restoration and expansion of consumption, stabilization of bulk consumption, and promotion of services consumption. Top copper smelters in China lowered their first-quarter guidance for copper concentrate processing treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) to $80 per metric ton and 8 cents per pound, reflecting a 16% decline from the fourth-quarter guidance of $95 per ton and 9.5 cents per pound, a six-year high. The global refined copper market exhibited a 53,000 metric ton deficit in October, compared to a 56,000 metric ton deficit in September, according to the ICSG. World refined copper output in October stood at 2.34 million metric tons, while consumption was 2.39 million metric tons. Adjusting for changes in inventory in Chinese bonded warehouses, there was a 52,000 metric ton deficit in October, down from 62,000 metric tons in September. Technically, the market is undergoing fresh buying, with a 0.47% increase in open interest to settle at 5113. Copper's support is identified at 729.8, with a potential test of 728.4 below this level. Resistance is expected at 732.2, and a move above could lead to a test of 733.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 728.4-733.2.
* Copper remained in range as demand in China was subdued after a burst of restocking seen recently
* China aims to expand domestic demand, ensure speedy recovery, promote stable growth
* China smelters cut Q1 copper guidance price as supply outlook tightens

Zinc

Zinc closed marginally lower by -0.06%, settling at 233.15, influenced by a -16.60% decrease in zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored warehouses compared to the previous Friday. The global zinc market deficit eased to 52,500 metric tons in October from 62,000 tons in September, according to data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). However, for the first 10 months of 2023, ILZSG data indicated a surplus of 295,000 tons, contrasting with a deficit of 33,000 tons in the same period of 2022. The market's optimism regarding potential U.S. interest rate cuts as early as March continues to grow, supported by a declining U.S. dollar index. This bullish sentiment aligns with expectations of fuller economic recovery, especially in top consumer China. Despite China reporting factory-gate deflation, the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI for November rose to 50.7, signaling a gradual rebound in the sector. Expectations of additional stimulus measures from Beijing and monetary easing by the People's Bank of China contribute to the positive outlook. In November 2023, China's refined zinc output decreased by 4.23% month-on-month to 579,000 metric tons but saw a year-on-year increase of 10.62%. The total output from January to November reached approximately 6.03 million metric tons, marking a 10.62% year-on-year increase. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation, with a -0.49% drop in open interest to settle at 5501. Zinc's support is identified at 232.6, with a potential test of 232 below this level. Resistance is expected at 233.8, and a move above could lead to a test of 234.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 232-234.4.
* Zinc settled flat as zinc inventories in SHFE warehouses fell -16.60% on weekly basis.
* The market's optimism that the U.S. will cut interest rates as early as March continues to grow
* The industrial outlook for the next year improved on hopes of early interest rate cuts from major central banks

Aluminium

Aluminium recorded a modest gain of 0.07%, settling at 212.1, with a potential impact on supply as Qinghai Province implemented power load management due to earthquake relief efforts. The move could potentially affect aluminium supply chains in the region. Meanwhile, LME registered warehouses reported a significant increase in inventories, reaching fresh highs this week. Aluminium stocks surged by 42,400 metric tons to 551,050 over the past two days, marking the highest level since June 19 and reflecting excess supply conditions. The inventories have risen by 24% in the last two weeks. In China, the interim report on the 14th five-year plan emphasizes the nation's commitment to enhancing domestic demand for economic recovery and stable growth. China also aims to accelerate reforms to expand the middle-income bracket, deepen market-oriented reforms, and prevent and resolve risks in key areas. Following the earthquake in Gansu province on December 18, Qinghai province, a major aluminium production hub, initiated emergency measures to ensure power supply and load management for earthquake relief. Although there were concerns about potential disruptions, data indicates that smelters in the province are operating normally, as the local power supply shortage is not severe. Technically, the market observed short-covering, with open interest remaining unchanged at 5057. Aluminium's support is identified at 211.3, with a potential test of 210.5 below this level. Resistance is expected at 212.8, and a move above could lead to a test of 213.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 210.5-213.5.
* Aluminium gains as Qinghai earthquake prompts power management, impacting aluminium supply.
* Aluminium stocks over the past two days rose by 42,400 metric tons to 551,050, the highest since June 19.
*  Aluminum production hub Qinghai issues power rationing emergency plan

Cotton

Cotton candy prices retreated by -0.07%, settling at 56180, as profit booking followed earlier gains driven by the Cotton Association of India (CAI) maintaining its pressing estimate for the 2023-24 season at 294.10 lakh bales of 170 kg each. Total supply until the end of November was estimated at 92.05 lakh bales, including market arrivals of 60.15 lakh bales, imports of 3 lakh bales, and opening stocks of 28.90 lakh bales. CAI President Atul S Ganatra noted that reports of pink bollworm infestation in the cotton crop have seen a decline, reducing from 30.62% during 2017-18 to 10.80% in 2022-23. The infestation of pink bollworm is observed in cotton-growing areas across the country's north, central, and south zones. Certified cotton stocks, deliverable against contracts, dropped to 6,325 bales on December 5th from their highest level in over two years at 87,770 bales on December 1st. Brazilian cotton shipments in November reached 253.71 thousand tons, up 12% compared to October 2023 but down 5.5% compared to November 2022. The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) projected a second consecutive year of global cotton production outpacing consumption. Global cotton lint production is expected to grow 3.25% YoY to 25.4 million metric tons in the 2023-2024 season, while consumption is forecasted to marginally decline to 23.4 million metric tons. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation, with open interest remaining unchanged at 209. Support for Cotton candy is identified at 56080, potentially testing 55990 below this level. Resistance is likely at 56280, with a move above leading to potential testing at 56390.
Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 55990-56390.
* Cotton dropped  on profit booking after prices gained as Cotton output may decline by 8%
* Total supply till end November was estimated at 92.05 lakh bales, which consisted market arrivals of 60.15 lakh bales
* ICAC projected that global cotton production will likely outpace consumption for the second year in a row.
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 26429.95 Rupees dropped by -0.27 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by -0.14%, settling at 14096, driven by slower buying activities ahead of the expected release of stocks in anticipation of new crops in January 2024. Pressure on prices also stemmed from improved crop conditions due to favorable weather. However, downside potential is limited as there are concerns about potential yield losses due to the crop's unfavorable weather conditions. Additionally, there is support for prices due to improved export opportunities. The recent establishment of PM Modi's Turmeric Board in Telangana has sparked concerns among farmers in Maharashtra regarding the location of the headquarters. The current crop conditions are reported as satisfactory, and harvest readiness is expected during January to March. Despite the current slower buying activity, decreasing supplies are expected to sustain price stability. However, there are expectations of a 20–25% decline in turmeric seeding this year, particularly in regions like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, as farmers shift priorities. In October 2023, around 10,137.78 tonnes of turmeric were exported, showing a gain of 11.58% compared to September 2023. However, there was a drop of 9.30% compared to October 2022. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation, with a drop in open interest by -0.91% to settle at 12465. Turmeric is currently finding support at 13996, with potential testing at 13898 below this level. Resistance is likely at 14226, with a move above potentially leading to testing at 14358.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13898-14358.
* Turmeric dropped as buying activities has been slower in expectation of commencement of new crops.
* Pressure also seen amid improved crop condition due to favorable weather condition.
* However, downside seen limited due to the potential for yield losses caused by the crop's unfavourable weather.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13300.7 Rupees dropped by -0.09 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices experienced a significant decline of -5.6%, settling at 29260, driven by higher production expectations in Gujarat and Rajasthan. The aggressive sowing for Jeera in Gujarat and a slowdown in exports are contributing to the downward pressure on prices in the near term. Sowing activities have progressed smoothly, thanks to favorable weather conditions. The latest data reveals a substantial increase in Jeera sowing in Gujarat, growing nearly 102% compared to the previous year, and a 13% increase in Rajasthan. In Gujarat, Jeera has been sown in 544,099.00 hectares, marking a remarkable increase from the 2022 sown area of 268,775.00 hectares as of December 26, 2023. However, despite higher production, global demand for Indian Jeera has slumped as buyers prefer other origins like Syria and Turkey due to the comparatively higher prices in India. Export activities are expected to remain subdued in the upcoming months, influenced by seasonality and the current price competitiveness of Indian Jeera in the global market. In October 2023, around 6,228.01 tonnes of Jeera were exported, reflecting a drop of 13.39% compared to September 2023 and a significant decline of 46.77% compared to October 2022. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation with a drop in open interest by -2.25%, settling at 2343, while prices declined by -1735 rupees. Jeera is currently finding support at 28600, and a break below this level could lead to a test of 27940. Resistance is likely at 30460, with a move above potentially testing 31660.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 27940-31660.
* Jeera prices dropped due to higher production prospects
* In Gujarat, Cumin sowing witnessed very strong growth by nearly 103% with 530,030.00 hectares against sown area of 2022
* Stockists are showing interest in buying on recent downfall in prices triggering short covering.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 33356.15 Rupees dropped by -0.84 percent.

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