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Gold

Gold prices slipped by 0.62% yesterday to settle at 96,782, weighed down by stronger-than-expected US labor data that dampened hopes for an imminent dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve. The US economy added around 150,000 jobs in June, surpassing forecasts of 110,000, reinforcing confidence in the labor market’s resilience and pushing back bets on an early rate cut. Meanwhile, fiscal concerns eased slightly as optimism grew that the House would approve President Trump’s tax-and-spending bill, maintaining the aggressive deficit outlined in the version passed by the Senate. On the trade front, markets kept a close eye on the Commerce Department’s updates ahead of the July 9 deadline for the reintroduction of Liberation Day tariffs. Although tariffs on Vietnam were lowered to 20% from 46%, negotiations with other key partners remain stuck, adding an element of uncertainty to the trade outlook. Physical gold demand remained mixed. China’s gold imports via Hong Kong dropped 1.5% in May from April to 57.76 metric tons, while Indian buyers continued to hold back, expecting a deeper price correction. Discounts in India narrowed to $18 an ounce over official domestic prices as jewellers met demand largely through recycled old jewellery rather than fresh purchases.  Technically, gold remains under long liquidation as open interest dropped by 6.11% to 12,083 while prices fell by 608 rupees. Immediate support lies at 96,230, below which prices could test 95,675. Resistance is seen at 97,560, and a break above could push prices toward 98,335.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 95675-98335.

* Gold dropped after strong labor data hampered bets of a dovish Fed.

* June's jobs report showed that nearly 150,000 jobs were added to the US economy, well above expectations of 110,000.

* Markets also awaited updated on new trade deals ahead of July 9th's deadline for the reintroduction of Liberation Day tariffs.

Silver

Silver prices edged up by 0.67% yesterday to settle at 108,236, defying a stronger dollar that gained ground after the US reported better-than-expected labor market data. June’s jobs report showed the US economy added 147,000 jobs, well above forecasts of 110,000, while the unemployment rate dipped unexpectedly to 4.1% against projections of 4.3%. Although average hourly earnings rose slightly less than expected at 0.2%, the data overall signaled continued labor market resilience, easing concerns of an imminent economic slowdown and pushing the dollar index above 97.3. Despite the firmer dollar, silver prices stayed supported by underlying bullish fundamentals. The global silver market is forecast to register its fifth consecutive annual deficit in 2025, driven by resilient industrial demand, which is projected to hit a record high above 700 million ounces as green energy and technology applications continue to expand. Total global silver demand is expected to hold steady at 1.2 billion ounces, with rising industrial and investment demand offsetting weaker jewelry and silverware consumption, especially from India, where high domestic prices are curbing retail appetite. The Silver Institute expects physical investment demand to rise by 3% this year, while silver coins and bars could see a 7% rebound after last year’s sharp drop to a five-year low. Technically, silver is under short covering as open interest fell by 1.27% to 16,318 while prices climbed by 718 rupees. Immediate support is seen at 107,390, below which prices could test 106,545. Resistance is pegged at 108,905, and a breakout above this could drive prices towards 109,575 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 106545-109575.

* Silver gains despite the dollar index climbed above 97.3 after a stronger-than-expected June jobs report.

* The US economy added 147,000 jobs in June, up from 144,000 in May and well above market forecasts of 110,000.

* The unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 4.1%, defying expectations of a rise to 4.3%.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices edged lower by 0.5% yesterday to settle at 5,724 as traders weighed renewed demand concerns against signs of higher global supply. The market remained cautious after the US signaled a possible reinstatement of tariffs, which could dampen trade flows and economic activity. Adding to the mixed outlook, Iran’s suspension of cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog stoked fears that tensions in the Middle East could escalate into fresh conflicts, potentially impacting oil supply routes. On the supply front, OPEC+ is widely expected to agree to a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day at its upcoming policy meeting, adding to global supply pressures. Meanwhile, US crude production hit a record 13.47 million bpd in April, slightly higher than March’s output, according to the EIA’s latest Petroleum Supply Monthly report. However, inventory data painted a bearish short-term picture. US crude oil stocks rose by 3.845 million barrels last week, defying expectations for a 2 million barrel draw, while gasoline inventories also swelled by 4.188 million barrels. A decline of 1.493 million barrels at the Cushing delivery hub offered some limited support. Looking ahead, the International Energy Agency reiterated that global oil demand will peak by 2029 at 105.6 million bpd before tapering slightly, in contrast to OPEC’s more bullish long-term view. Technically, crude oil is under long liquidation as open interest fell by 7.95% to 11,893 while prices dipped by 29 rupees. Immediate support lies at 5,684, below which prices could test 5,643, while resistance is seen at 5,772, with a break above possibly driving prices to 5,819.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5643-5819.

* Crude oil softens on US tariff uncertainty and OPEC+ output expectations

* OPEC+ is expected to agree to raise output by 411,000 bpd at its policy meeting this weekend.

* A surprise build in U.S. crude inventories also highlighted demand concerns.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined by 2.53% yesterday to settle at 292.5, pressured by another week of robust storage builds that highlighted ample supply despite the seasonal pick-up in cooling demand. The latest EIA data showed that US utilities injected 55 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage for the week ending June 27, exceeding expectations of 53 bcf and marking the 11th consecutive week of above-average injections. On the demand side, however, fundamentals remain supportive. Forecasts for hotter mid-July weather are expected to lift air-conditioning use, boosting gas-fired power generation. LNG exports are also on an uptrend, with average flows to the eight major US LNG plants rising to 15.4 bcfd so far in July from 14.4 bcfd in June, as facilities return online following spring maintenance. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projected US dry gas production will reach new records, climbing from 103.2 bcfd in 2024 to 105.9 bcfd in 2025 and 106.4 bcfd in 2026. Domestic gas consumption is also expected to edge higher to 91.3 bcfd in 2025 before easing slightly in 2026, while LNG exports are projected to hit a record 14.6 bcfd next year. Technically, natural gas remains under fresh selling as open interest rose by 2.24% to 24,346 while prices dropped by 7.6 rupees. Immediate support is seen at 287.6, with a break below opening the path to test 282.6. On the upside, resistance is likely at 301.5, and a move above that could push prices to 310.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 282.6-310.4.

* Natural gas fell after EIA data showed the 11th straight week of above-average storage injections.

* US storage rose by 55 bcf last week, beating expectations but below five-year average.

* Meanwhile, hotter mid-July forecasts are expected to drive up air-conditioning demand and gas-fired power usage.

Copper

Copper prices edged lower by 0.72% yesterday to settle at 898.85, as traders booked profits after recent gains driven by tightening global supplies and lingering tariff uncertainty. The pullback came despite persistent signs of constrained inventories worldwide. Shipments are being redirected to the US ahead of possible import tariffs, fueling significant drawdowns at major exchanges. Total copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses remain close to their lowest levels since August 2023, with available inventories plunging 76% since mid-February as traders raced to the US market in response to speculation of a 10% levy on US copper imports. Adding to the supportive backdrop, China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly returned to expansion in June, signaling improved demand prospects from the world’s top copper consumer amid easing trade tensions with the US. According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the global refined copper market flipped to a 50,000 metric ton deficit in April after recording a surplus in March. Meanwhile, China’s imports of unwrought copper and copper products slipped by 2.5% month-on-month in May to 427,000 tons, marking a 16.9% drop year-on-year. Copper concentrate imports also fell sharply by 18% from April’s record high, even as Chinese smelters maintained output, indicating tightness in raw material availability. Technically, copper remains under long liquidation as open interest fell by 2.04% to 8,386 while prices declined by 6.55 rupees. Immediate support is seen at 895.6, below which prices could test 892.4. Resistance is now likely at 903.7, with a break above potentially pushing prices towards 908.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 892.4-908.6.

* Copper slipped on profit booking after recent gains driven by tight supply and tariff speculation.

* Traders diverted copper shipments to the US ahead of possible 10% import tariffs this year.

* LME and SHFE inventories dropped sharply, with available stocks down 76% since mid-February.

Zinc

Zinc prices slipped by 0.39% yesterday to settle at 257.45, weighed down by a stronger dollar that climbed above 97.3 after a robust US labor report eased recession fears and pushed back expectations for immediate rate cuts. The US added 147,000 jobs in June, well above forecasts of 110,000, with the unemployment rate dipping unexpectedly to 4.1%. Sentiment in zinc also remained clouded by weak demand signals from China. Deliverable stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 800 tonnes in the last week of June, suggesting manufacturers are taking fewer deliveries amid a sluggish factory outlook. China’s official PMI continued to signal contraction in manufacturing activity, keeping buyers cautious and limiting purchases to immediate needs only. Heavy rains also disrupted production at some smelters in South China, adding mixed signals to the near-term supply landscape. However, the downside in zinc remains somewhat capped by signs of tightening supply globally. Teck Resources’ Red Dog Mine, the world’s largest zinc mine, reported a 20% drop in mined output year-on-year in Q1 as it nears depletion. Australian smelter Nyrstar also announced a 25% cut in this year’s output due to a shortage of ores and uncompetitive treatment charges. Technically, zinc remains under long liquidation as open interest fell by 1.72% to 3,422 while prices slipped by 1 rupee. Immediate support lies at 256.8, with a break below opening the door to test 256. On the upside, resistance is seen at 258.6, and a move above this level could push prices toward 259.6 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 256-259.6.

* Zinc dropped as dollar rises as strong jobs report eases labor market fears.

* A private survey showed Chinese factory activity surprisingly returned to growth during June’s trade thaw.

* Deliverable zinc at the Shanghai Futures Exchange jumped by 800 tonnes on the last week of June

Aluminium

Aluminium prices eased by 0.56% yesterday to settle at 249.15, weighed down by persistent concerns over weak manufacturing demand despite some supportive supply-side factors. The latest manufacturing PMI from China’s National Bureau of Statistics signaled another month of contraction, highlighting the struggle for a sustainable recovery in the world’s top aluminium-consuming sector. On the production front, China’s aluminium output rose 5% year-on-year to 3.83 million metric tons in May, and total output for the first five months of 2025 reached 18.59 million metric tons, up 4% from the same period last year. Global primary aluminium output also edged 1.5% higher year-on-year in May to 6.245 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute, indicating steady supply growth despite regional disruptions. Japanese aluminium buyers have secured a $108 per metric ton premium for Q3 shipments, marking a sharp 41% drop from the current quarter due to subdued demand and healthy supply. Aluminium stocks at Japan’s major ports rose 3.3% in May to 331,000 metric tons, adding to the regional oversupply sentiment. On the trade side, China exported 547,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products in May, up 5.6% month-on-month but still down 3.2% year-on-year, with year-to-date exports slipping 5.1% to 2.43 million tonnes, reflecting cautious overseas buying interest. Technically, aluminium is under long liquidation as open interest dropped by 4.52% to 4,098 lots while prices fell by 1.4 rupees. Support is now seen at 248.4, with a break below likely to test 247.5. Resistance is pegged at 250.3, and a move above could push prices towards 251.3 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 247.5-251.3.

* Aluminium prices fell as China’s official manufacturing PMI showed another month of factory sector contraction.

* Global supply concerns persist with European output constrained by sanctions against Russia.

* On-warrant LME stocks rose year-to-date, but combined LME-SHFE inventories still 60% below last year.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices slipped by 2.3% yesterday to settle at 13,598, pressured by expectations of increased sowing this season due to favourable rains and better planting conditions. Arrivals in the spot markets rose to 13,660 quintals compared to 11,940 quintals in the previous session, signaling improved availability and keeping near-term prices under check. Dry weather has aided timely sowing, and early estimates suggest turmeric acreage could expand by 15–20% this season as farmers find the crop more profitable than other options. For the 2024–25 season, the area under turmeric cultivation has already touched 3.30 lakh hectares, about 10% higher than last year’s 3 lakh hectares. However, despite this rise in acreage, concerns about actual production persist due to untimely rains that may reduce yields. The new crop yield is projected to be 10–15% lower this year, with regions like Nanded facing issues such as smaller rhizomes and crop rot, which could limit overall output gains. On the demand front, fresh arrivals at the Duggirala market continue to fetch a quality premium, indicating strong buyer interest for good-quality new stock. April 2025, turmeric exports rose 6% year-on-year, although they dipped marginally by 0.92% from March. Technically, turmeric is under fresh selling pressure as open interest rose by 2.05% to 17,910 while prices fell by 320 rupees. Immediate support is seen at 13,296, with a break below likely to test 12,996. Resistance is pegged at 13,962, and a move above could open the door for prices to test 14,328.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12996-14328.

* Turmeric prices dropped due to expected increase in acreage.

* Turmeric acreage is expected to increase by 15-20% this season, supported by low competitive crop prices.

* In April 2025 around 14,956.80 tonnes were exported as against 14,109.10 tonnes in April 2024 showing a rise of 6%.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14351.15 Rupees dropped by -0.45 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices edged slightly lower by 0.1% yesterday to settle at 19,965 as the market continued to feel the pressure of weak domestic and export demand following the conclusion of the peak retail season. The decline was largely attributed to subdued buying from overseas markets and inactivity from foreign buyers, despite easing geopolitical concerns in other major jeera-producing countries like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan. Adequate existing stock levels and comfortable supply further weighed on prices. According to trade sources, farmers still hold around 20 lakh bags of cumin, but only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a significant carry-forward stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. While demand remains tepid for now, the downside appears limited due to expectations of firm export orders once buying revives, given tightening supplies from global competitors. On the production front, India’s cumin crop for the current season is expected to be around 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags due to a reduction in sowing area, although crop conditions have generally remained favourable. April’s export figures showed a steep 48% decline year-on-year but rose 13.74% month-on-month, indicating some improvement in overseas orders as the season progresses. Technically, jeera is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 2.16% to 4,887 while prices eased by 20 rupees. Support is seen at 19,820, below which prices may test 19,670. On the upside, resistance is likely at 20,150, with a break above opening the door for a move towards 20,330.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19670-20330.

* Jeera dropped due to weak domestic and export demand post retail season.

* However downside seen limited on strong export demand and easing geopolitical concerns.

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20510.45 Rupees dropped by 0 percent.

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