Turmeric Report : Turmeric prices increased by over 14% in a month due to lower-than-expected arrivals, restricting supplies and leading to strong buying interest by Kedia Advisory
Turmeric Price Trends
* Turmeric prices increased by over 14% in a month due to lower-than-expected arrivals, restricting supplies and leading to strong buying interest.
* Additional support was seen due to concerns about slow rhizome growth and low yield estimates.
Turmeric Arrivals (March 2025)
* All India arrivals in March 2025 stood at 38,409.18 tonnes, marking a 26.01% decline compared to 51,910 tonnes in March 2024.
Turmeric Exports Performance
Exports picked up in the second half of 2024, reaching a four-year high, surpassing 2020’s volume of 1.75 lakh tonnes.
Apr-Dec 2024 exports increased 13%, reaching 136,921.04 tonnes, compared to 121,170.97 tonnes in Apr-Dec 2023.
December 2024 exports:
* 15,319.82 tonnes, showing a 20.43% rise compared to 12,721.25 tonnes in November 2024.
* 15,319.82 tonnes, marking a 46.94% increase over 10,425.64 tonnes in December 2023.
Turmeric Cultivation & Production Estimates
* The area under turmeric cultivation increased 10%, from 3 lakh hectares to 3.30 lakh hectares this season.
* However, production may not rise proportionally due to untimely rains reducing productivity.
* In 2024, turmeric production was 10.75 lakh tonnes.
* Nanded region could see a 10-15% decline in productivity.
Production Outlook for 2025
* Production may remain similar to last year or fluctuate by 3-5%.
* New crop yields are expected to be 10-15% lower this year, with small rhizomes and crop rot issues in Nanded.
* Final confirmation of production losses will be possible only after harvesting picks up in primary producing areas.
Strengths.
March month saw price rise over 39%, bouncing from a 20-month low of Rs 11,138 to Rs 15,500.
Crop yield seen falling 10-15% in Nanded due to small rhizomes and crop rot.
Turmeric arrivals fell 41% YoY in March, tightening supply and supporting higher market prices.
Exports rose 13% YoY to 1.36 lakh tonnes from April–Dec 2024, supporting higher prices.
Harmonic Bullish Pattern spotted on NCDEX daily chart; Point D at Rs 11,220 triggered buying, 200-DMA target Rs 13,500 achieved.
Weaknesses
Arrival pressure builds in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.
Turmeric arrivals increasing in key markets like Nizamabad, Metpally, Sangli, creating supply-side pressure.
Acreage up 10% YoY to 3.30 lakh hectares, limiting upside from supply concerns.
Turmeric production recovering to 78.30 lakh bags in 2024-25 from 58 lakh bags in 2023-24.
Iran’s imports of turmeric declined 55.46% YoY in 2023-24, significantly reducing India’s export market potential.
Opportunities
Carry-over stocks for 2025 are at a record low due to last year’s short crop
April futures may reach Rs15,000/quintal with continued export and festive demand.
Protests erupt across Telangana as farmers seek fair pricing and government procurement support.
Farmers demand Rs 15,000 MSP amid distress sales and steep crash to Rs 7,000–Rs 9,000 levels.
Due to Lower prices, farmer stock-holding are restricting turmeric supply, supporting prices.
Domestic wedding season in Q2 could further boost turmeric buying interest.
Threats
The availability of IPM turmeric remains a challenge
Market closely watching the upcoming crop harvest to determine pricing.
Farmers anticipating a price drop once the new crop enters the market.
Increasingly strict regulations on pesticides in US and EU
Recession fears loom over current economic situation.
Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer
