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Gold

Gold prices rallied 1.81% to settle at  Rs.154,817, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and easing oil prices, which reduced fears of prolonged higher interest rates. Geopolitical tensions remained a key driver, with the U.S. initiating a blockade of Iran’s ports, though signals of continued diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran helped limit safe-haven spikes. Rate cut expectations improved, with markets pricing in a 29% probability of a 25-bps cut this year, up from 12% last week. On the macro front, U.S. CPI rose 0.9% in March, pushing annual inflation to 3.3%, while core CPI edged up to 2.6%, indicating lingering inflationary pressures. Federal Reserve minutes suggested a hawkish tilt, with some policymakers open to further rate hikes. Meanwhile, China extended its gold-buying streak to 17 months, adding 160,000 ounces in March, highlighting continued central bank demand. Physical demand remained mixed, with India seeing slight festival-led buying ahead of Akshaya Tritiya, while China premiums softened amid slower retail demand. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 2.45% to 7,409. Gold finds immediate support at  Rs.153,360, with a downside test of  Rs.151,910 possible. Resistance is seen at  Rs.155,600, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward  Rs.156,390.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 151910-156390.

* Gold prices rose supported by a weaker dollar, while a drop in oil prices eased concerns over inflation.

* Washington and Tehran were still open to talks after a tense meeting in Islamabad helped ease concerns over the escalating conflict.

* Traders now see a 29% chance of a 25-basis-point U.S. rate cut this year, up from about 12% last week.

Silver

Silver prices surged sharply by 4.93% to settle at  Rs.252,750, driven by improving market sentiment as the U.S. and Iran signaled a willingness to resume negotiations for a longer-term ceasefire. Despite heightened tensions following the U.S. naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, both sides indicated openness to dialogue, which helped stabilize risk sentiment while still supporting safe-haven demand. On the macro side, inflation remains a key theme. The latest U.S. CPI data showed annual inflation rising to 3.3% in March, the highest since May 2024, with a sharp 0.9% monthly increase. However, core inflation remained relatively contained at 0.2% month-on-month, slightly below expectations. The Fed’s preferred gauge, the PCE index, stood at 2.8% in February and is likely to have edged higher in March, reinforcing concerns that inflation may stay elevated for longer. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults increased by 1.6% to 27,487 tonnes, reflecting steady institutional interest. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 5.61% to 5,505 contracts while prices rallied significantly. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.245,065, with a potential downside toward  Rs.237,385. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.256,740, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward  Rs.260,735.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 237385-260735.

* Silver climbed as the US and Iran signaled willingness to resume negotiations aimed at securing a longer-term ceasefire.

* Doubts over future rate moves by the Fed also weigh on the dollar

* The latest US CPI report, showed inflation at 3.3%, the highest since May 2024, with a 0.9% monthly jump

Crude oil

Crude oil prices saw a sharp correction, falling 7.37% to settle at  Rs.8,571, as easing geopolitical tensions weighed on the market. Reports that the U.S. and Iran are open to further negotiations for a longer-term ceasefire helped cool some of the risk premium, even after earlier disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. That said, supply dynamics remain tight. OPEC data showed Saudi Arabia’s oil supply dropped significantly to 7.76 million barrels per day in March, the lowest since mid-2020, with similar declines across Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE due to export disruptions. The ongoing six-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced producers to cut output, tightening global availability. Reflecting this, UBS raised its Brent price forecasts, expecting crude to touch $100 per barrel by June 2026. On the inventory side, U.S. crude stocks rose by 3.1 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined, indicating mixed demand signals. Meanwhile, OPEC slightly lowered its global demand forecast for Q2 by 500,000 bpd, citing temporary weakness linked to Middle East developments, though demand is expected to recover in the second half. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 2.87% to 8,057. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.8,356, with a downside toward  Rs.8,141. Resistance is placed at  Rs.8,960, and a move above this could push prices toward  Rs.9,349.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8141-9349.

* Crude oil dropped as US and Iran are considering further negotiations aimed at securing a longer-term ceasefire.

* OPEC lowered its forecast for world oil demand in the second quarter by 500,000 bpd.

* Saudi Arabia’s oil supply to the market fell to 7,763 thousand barrels per day in March 2026, the lowest since June 2020

Natural gas

Natural gas prices slipped 1.66% to settle at  Rs.243.3, pressured by strong supply conditions and softer demand expectations. Near-record production levels, ample storage, and forecasts of milder weather have all combined to weigh on prices. With temperatures expected to stay warmer than usual through late April, both heating and cooling demand remain subdued. On the supply side, the U.S. continues to see robust output, averaging 111.1 bcfd so far in April, higher than March levels and close to record highs. The EIA reported a 50 Bcf injection into storage for the week ended April 3, slightly above expectations, reflecting the early start of the injection season. Storage levels are now running about 5% above normal, supported by consistent production and moderate demand. Looking ahead, the EIA projects production to climb further in 2026, even as domestic consumption is expected to ease slightly before recovering in 2027. LNG exports, however, are likely to remain a key demand driver. From a technical standpoint, the market is seeing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 6.38% to 44,030, indicating new short positions. Immediate support is placed at  Rs.239.4, with a possible downside toward  Rs.235.4. On the upside, resistance is seen at  Rs.248.4, and a move above this level could push prices toward  Rs.253.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 235.4-253.4.

* Natural gas eased on near-record output, mild weather, ample storage

* LSEG reports US gas output at 111.1 bcfd in April,inventories 5.3% above normal

* EIA reported a 50 Bcf injection into storage, exceeding market expectations of a 46 Bcf build

Copper

Copper prices moved higher by 2.85% to settle at  Rs.1,269.1, supported by supply concerns after China’s sulfuric acid export ban, a key input for copper leaching in major producing regions like Chile and the DRC. A softer U.S. dollar and hopes of easing geopolitical tensions also added to the upside momentum. Demand signals from China remained strong, with the Yangshan copper premium surging 76% week-on-week to $74 per ton, its highest level since June 2025. At the same time, inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses dropped 11.5%, indicating tightening near-term supply. However, globally, inventories across LME and Comex warehouses have climbed above 900,000 tons, creating pressure on spot prices and widening discounts against forward contracts. On the production side, Chile reported mixed output trends, with Codelco and Escondida posting declines, while Collahuasi saw a sharp increase. Meanwhile, China’s copper imports fell notably, pointing to some demand moderation. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expects a larger global surplus in 2026, which could cap price gains despite near-term strength. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 3.02% to 9,463, indicating new long positions. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.1,245.5, with a downside toward  Rs.1,221.9. Resistance is placed at  Rs.1,285, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward  Rs.1,300.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1221.9-1300.9.

* Copper rallied as support seen after China has announced a ban on sulfuric acid exports starting in May 2026.

* Supporting copper price was also firm China demand with the Yangshan copper premium, jumping by 76% week-on-week to $74.

* China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products declined 10.9% to 416,000 metric tons in March

Zinc

Zinc prices edged up marginally by 0.16% to settle at  Rs.335.15, supported mainly by a softer U.S. dollar and hopes of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. While talks between the two sides did not deliver a breakthrough, ongoing dialogue kept market sentiment stable. Additional support came from improving industrial activity in China, where factory data indicates a return to expansion, lifting demand expectations for base metals. In the near term, supply-side factors also lent support. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories declined by 1.7%, while ongoing mine closures and operational disruptions kept availability tight. However, the upside remains capped due to lingering uncertainty around the Middle East situation and its potential impact on global growth. On the supply front, developments such as the restart of Boliden’s Tara mine and ramp-up at the Kipushi project are expected to keep the global market in a small surplus. Data also showed mixed trends, with Peru’s zinc output rising year-on-year but falling on a monthly basis, while global markets shifted into a modest surplus in January. From a technical perspective, the market is seeing fresh buying, with open interest rising 6.24% to 2,195, indicating new long positions. Immediate support is placed at  Rs.333.3, with a downside toward  Rs.331.4. Resistance is seen at  Rs.337.4, and a move above this could push prices toward  Rs.339.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 331.4-339.6.

* Zinc prices rose due to softer dollar amid hopes of eased US-Iran tension provided support.

* Prices also gained supported by improving industrial activity and signs of short-term supply tightness.

* China's central bank pledged to maintain appropriately loose monetary policy.

Aluminium prices slipped 0.5% to settle at  Rs.366.9, mainly due to profit booking after the recent sharp rally triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While the U.S. move to impose a maritime blockade on Iran initially raised concerns over supply disruptions, the market saw some cooling as traders locked in gains. Fundamentally, the broader outlook remains tight. The Gulf region, which contributes around 9% of global aluminium supply, continues to face disruptions, with major facilities like Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah smelter taking time to fully restore operations. Reflecting this, premiums for immediate delivery have surged, with LME cash premiums hitting their highest level since 2007, signaling near-term supply tightness. At the same time, Japanese buyers are paying the highest premiums in over a decade, reinforcing the constrained supply narrative. However, rising inventories in Shanghai, now near six-year highs, and softer Chinese imports suggest that demand remains somewhat cautious amid price volatility. Looking ahead, JP Morgan maintains a bullish stance, projecting a significant global deficit in 2026 and potential upside in prices as supply disruptions persist. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 4.83% to 3,288. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.364.7, with a downside toward  Rs.362.4, while resistance is placed at  Rs.368.6. A breakout above this level could push prices toward  Rs.370.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 362.4-370.2.

* Aluminium dropped on profit booking after prices gained as Washington said it would impose a maritime blockade of Iran

* The Gulf region accounted for about 9% of global aluminium supply before this year's U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran.

* JP Morgan sees aluminium prices averaging around $3,500 per ton over second half of 2026

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by 2.16% to settle at  Rs.15,800, as traders and stockists chose to book profits after the recent rally driven by tight arrivals. Despite this correction, the overall tone of the market remains firm, supported by lower carry-forward stocks and restricted selling from farmers who are holding back produce in anticipation of better prices. Supply dynamics remain mixed. While earlier production estimates stood around 11.41 lakh tonnes, unseasonal rains and disease pressure in key regions like Maharashtra and Telangana have caused localized crop damage, with yield losses of 15–20% in some pockets. At the same time, higher acreage—up roughly 4% year-on-year—has helped offset some of these losses, keeping overall output expectations relatively stable. Dried turmeric production is estimated at 90 lakh bags, higher than last season’s 82.5 lakh bags, although quality concerns such as rhizome rot persist. On the demand side, exports show short-term softness but remain steady overall, while imports have declined sharply, indicating reduced dependency on overseas supply. Strong demand from export markets like Europe and the US continues to provide underlying support. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 8.25%. Key support is seen at  Rs.15,538, with further downside towards  Rs.15,278, while resistance is placed at  Rs.16,030 and  Rs.16,262.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15278-16262.

* Turmeric dropped as traders and stockists are liquidating long positions after prices recently gained amid lower-than-normal arrivals.

* Short-term global demand momentum has softened, causing a temporary pile-up of domestic spice stocks.

* High prices prompted farmers to release their stored inventories before the peak season ends.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16217.35 Rupees dropped by -0.39 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices eased by 0.84% to settle at  Rs.21,835, weighed down by the arrival of the new crop and comfortable supply conditions in key mandis. Sentiment also remained subdued due to weak export demand, particularly from China, which has led to a build-up of domestic stocks. Farmers are actively offloading produce to take advantage of prevailing prices, further adding pressure to the market. On the supply side, production is expected to decline by around 5% to 5.13 lakh tonnes this year. Gujarat, a key producing state, is witnessing a sharp drop in output due to lower acreage and yields, while Rajasthan is likely to offset some of the losses with higher production. Weather remains a key factor, as rising temperatures in North Gujarat could impact late-sown crops, potentially tightening supply going forward. Pest risks such as aphid infestation and diseases like blight are also emerging concerns. Demand trends remain mixed. While premium-quality jeera continues to see steady demand, overall export performance has weakened significantly, with January exports plunging 48% year-on-year. Geopolitical disruptions in other producing countries have not translated into stronger demand for Indian supplies. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with rising open interest indicating bearish sentiment. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.21,680, followed by  Rs.21,510, while resistance stands at  Rs.22,010 and  Rs.22,170.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21510-22170.

* Jeera dropped as increasing supplies of fresh cumin crops in Unjha and Rajasthan mandis are weighing down prices.

* Global buying interest, particularly from China, remains weak, leading to a domestic stock build-up.

* Farmers are rushing to liquidate stocks in local markets to capitalize on current rates.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21659.6 Rupees dropped by -0.42 percent.

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