The pair is expected to find support near the 90.00 handle, while near-term resistance can be seen within the 90.20/40 zone - Axis Securities Ltd
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USD/INR
Market Commentary:
* The US 10 year bond yields inched lower towards the 4.41% mark ahead of the inflation data today, consequently pushed the Dollar index closer to the 105.00 handle. The USDINR pair is stuck between outflows from the equity markets and the State run banks selling the Dollar.
* On the daily chart, short term (5/13/21) EMAs are aligned for an up move. Resistance lies near 83.70 followed by 83.90, while supports lie between 83.10 – 83.30.
* Daily stochastics are placed in the overbought regime. No notable strikes are due to expire on the day.
* Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 9.8% probability that the pair will touch 83.62 while there is a 9.6% chance that it will hit 83.36
EUR/INR
Market Commentary:
* Softer Dollar has pushed the Euro higher above the 1.08 handle. That supported the INR cross too, as it continues to trade above the key short-term EMAs.
* The pair is expected to find support near the 90.00 handle, while near-term resistance can be seen within the 90.20/40 zone.
* Notable strikes set to expire today for EUR/USD lie at 1.08,1.0825 and 1.0850.
* The MA-based Z-score is near overbought, while the daily stochastics suggests increasing bullish momentum.
* Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 10.2% chance that the pair will touch 90.77 today while there is a 9.7% probability that it will reach 89.53.
GBP/INR
Market Commentary:
* The cable continues its winning streak and inches closer to the 1.26 handle. The INR cross came under slight pressure after the state run banks pushed the USDINR pair lower a notch.
* Technically, the 104.40 - 104.50 area - the short term EMAs are clustering here - is expected to serve as support, beyond which 104.00 is a possibility. Immediate resistance lies near 105.00, followed by 105.30
* Notable strikes set to expire today lie at 1.2495, 1.2500, 1.2625, 1.2600.
* The stochastics oscillator currently remains in a neutral regime.
* Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 10.6% probability that the pair will touch 105.30, while there is a 9.3% probability that it will hit 104.29.
JPY/INR
Market Commentary:
* The cool off in the US 10 year bond yields, stalled the up move in USDJPY. The INR cross continued to move lower and printed a low of 0.5335 .
* Immediate support for the pair lies around 0.5300. The immediate resistance is expected to be around 0.5360.
* Notable strikes set to expire today are at 156.00, 157.00, 157.60.
* The MA-based z-score has reversed after turning overbought while the stochastic oscillator remains bearish.
* Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 10% probability that the pair will hit 0.5374 or 0.5300.
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