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Market Roundup

* The Indian rupee is expected to start the day on a muted note, but the surge in the greenback against Yen and Asian currencies could push the local unit lower in the second half. Implied opening from forwards suggests the spot may start trading around 83.20 vsthe previous close of 83.19.

* Spot USDINR waslittle changed at 83.1888 on Wednesday.

* Technically, spot USDINR has been stuck in a narrow range of 83 to 83.25 since the start of the month. The bias for the pair remains neutral to bearish in the shortterm.

* Indian bonds and the rupee may come under pressure, in line with regional weighed by a rebound in Treasury yields. Higher oil prices may also impact sentiment. India’s 10-year yieldsfell 4bpsto 7.34%.

* Thursday is shaping up to be another risk-averse day as the broad dollar strength weighing on sentiment across Asian markets. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index is lower asthe Dollar Index is up for a third day amid a renewed selloff in US Treasuries.

* The US dollar gained, pushing a gauge of its strength toward the highestsince Oct. 3, as Treasury yields rose. Hawkish Fed expectations, elevated US bond yields, and riskaversemood benefit the greenback

* The traders will eye on the Euro ahead of the ECB policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in today’s policy meeting, as inflation slows down and economic activity remains subdued. Post-decision, the members’ discussion could revolve around modifications to reserve requirements and the balance sheet. ECB President Christine Lagarde will likely maintain a hawkish tone, considering that inflation levels remain high and to appease the hawks within the Bank

USDINR

Technical Observations:

USDINR is placed below the shortterm moving averages.

It has broken the upward-slopping trend line support of 83.30.

Momentum oscillator, RSI has given negative divergence and placed below 50 indicating a weaker momentum.

 MACD is placed near zero with a negative cross-over to average indicating a weak trend.

The pair has support at 82.50 and resistance at 83.40.

Short Term Trend: Neutral/Bearish

Expected Trading Range: 82.90 to 83.25

Intraday Recommendation: Sell USDINR Oct. Fut. around 83.18 SL 83.30 Target 83.01. 

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