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Nifty : 22012

Technical Outlook

Day that was… Equity benchmarks edged higher tracking buoyant global cues owing to US Fed outcome. The Nifty gained 173 points to settle the weekly expiry session at 22012. Market breadth turned positive with A/D ratio of 4:1 as Nifty midcap, small cap gained ~2.5%, each. Sectorally, all major indices ended in green led by financials, metal, PSU, consumption

Technical Outlook

* The Nifty witnessed a gap up opening tracking firm global cues and underwent range bound activity. As a result, daily price action formed a high wave candle. Consequently, closing above previous session’s high, indicating pause in downward momentum as supportive efforts emerged in the vicinity of 50 days EMA coincided with lower band of falling channel

* Going ahead, we expect index to trade with a positive bias and gradually head towards 22200 as it is 61.8% retracement of recent decline (22526-21710). In the process, volatility would prevail as we approach the fag end of the financial year. Thereby, focus should be on accumulating quality stocks on dips as strong support is placed at 21700

* Empirically over two decades, bull market corrections in Nifty Midcap and small cap indices tend to be average 12% -15% respectively. In current context these indices have corrected 9% and 16% already. We believe much of price correction is behind us and expect these indices to undergo a base formation over next few weeks. Post recent correction many quality companies have approached their key support. Investors should focus accumulating quality stocks from long term perspective

* Structurally, we believe, ongoing consolidation would set the stage for next leg of up move. In the process, we expect large caps to relatively outperform the broader market

Nifty Bank: 46685

Technical Outlook

Day that was : The Nifty Bank index snapped nine session losing streak to end the session at five session high led by strong global cues . Nifty Bank index closed at 46685 , up 374 points or 0 .81 %

Technical Outlook

* The Index commenced session with a gap up action led by strong global cues after Fed event boosted sentiment for rate sensitives and formed higher high - low for first time in ten sessions indicating pause in downward momentum and bounce back from oversold readings

* Going forward, we expect index to hold 46000 and head towards 47200 levels which is 61 . 8 % retracement of recent decline (48161 -45828 ) . buy the dips

* Meanwhile, key observation is that Bank Nifty has retraced preceding 6 session rally over nine sessions indicating slower pace of decline

* Key support for Bank Nifty is placed around 46000 mark which we expect to hold as it is confluence of rising 100 - day ema and key trendline connecting January and Feb swing lows

* Structurally, index is undergoing a broader consolidation phase since late December 2023 which we expect to set stage for next up move . Within this phase index has maintained its rhythm of forming higher lows near 52 - week ema indicating continuation of structural uptrend .

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