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Nifty : 22336

Technical Outlook:

Day that was… Equity benchmark started the week on a positive bias by gaining 190 points or 0.9% and settled Monday’s session at 22336. Broader market remained positive with A/D ratio of 2.5:1 as Nifty small cap gained 1.3%. Sectorally, all major indices ended in green led by financials, consumer durables, phama relatively outperformed

Technical Outlook:

* The Nifty started the week on a positive note and gradually inched northward after initial blip. As a result, daily price action formed a bull candle with a long lower shadow, highlighting emergence of elevated buying demand from 50 days EMA amid oversold conditions. Easing of geo-political worries, lower crude prices and recovery in global indices helped sentiments.

* We expect Nifty to head towards immediate milestone of 22400. Further, sustainability above 22400 would pave the way to challenge life high of 22775 in coming months. In the process, we expect Nifty to hold the key support of 21700. Thus, buying dips would be the prudent strategy to adopt amid progression of Q4 earnings

* Structually, key observation has been that, Nifty’s two corrections since January 2024 has been 5% each and even last week index maintained this price behaviour, by recovering post 5% correction from life highs and also held lower band of past three-month rising channel, despite geo-political worries

* Going ahead, bouts of volatility amid geo-political tensions, earnings and elections may not be ruled out. However, investors should not panic, rather continue to invest in good companies during episodes of volatility. We reiterate our structurally positive stance, as we have seen in the past that once anxiety around such events settles down, markets tend to resume their primary up trend

* Key support for Nifty at 21700 is based on confluence of:

*  a) Lower band of past three month rising channel

* b) Equality of past two corrections (5%) from life highs)

* C) March lows at 21710

Nifty Bank: 47925

Technical Outlook:

Day that was : The Nifty Bank index extended Fridays gains to start the week on positive note . PSU banks led the rally with 3 . 3 % gains . Nifty Bank index closed the session at 47924 , up 350 points or 0 .75 %

Technical Outlook:

* Index started session with a gap up amid firm global cues . While initial gains were surrendered, index gathered upward momentum in second half to close near high . Price action formed a high wave candle with longer lower shadow indicating buying demand during intraday decline . Daily chart carries higher high -low indicating follow through to Fridays recovery

* In the current expiry week, higher volatility cannot be ruled out, however we expect index to hold last Fridays panic low at 46500 and challenge last week’s high of 48200 in coming few sessions . Use buy on decline approach . Meanwhile earnings would weigh on sentiments

* Key observation has been that index has held 100 -day ema for third time since February 2024 and remains a key support

* Structurally, index is undergoing a retracement of past couple of months rally and would help prices to come out of over bought readings .

* Key immediate support for Index is placed at 46500 as it is confluence of :

*  Value of rising 100 -day ema

* 80 % retracement of recent up move (45281 - 49057 )

* Key trend line connecting swing lows of Jan,feb and march 2024

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