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Nifty : 19546

Technical Outlook

* The index started the weekly expiry session with a positive gap (19458-19487) and traded with a positive bias throughout the day. The daily price action resulted into bull candle carrying higher high-low. The follow through strength above Wednesday’s doji candle helped index to fill Wednesday’s bearish gap 19480-19458, indicating pause in downward momentum.

* The supportive efforts from 80% retracement of Aug-Sept rally (19369-20222) signifies inherent strength. Going ahead, we expect index to gradually inch higher towards 19800 in coming weeks. We believe, recent healthy retracement has helped index to cool off overbought conditions and paved the way for next leg of up move. Thereby, any dip from hereon should be capitalized to accumulate quality stocks onset of Q2 earning season amid cool off crude oil price which would provide impetus for equities

* Historically, in a bull market 100 days EMA has offered incremental buying opportunity. In current scenario, 100 day EMA is placed around 19200 which we expect index to hold as it is confluence of swing low of August 2023 is placed at 19230

* Broader markets represented by Midcap and Small cap indices are currently undergoing healthy consolidation post >40% rally in past six months. Structurally, compared to benchmark, the Nifty midcap and small cap indices have been showing immense strength by sustaining above its 20 days EMA. We believe, ongoing time consolidation would set the stage for next leg of up move for the broader market space 

Nifty Bank: 44213

Technical Outlook

* The price action for the day formed high wave candle with higher high -low indicating pause in downward momentum and supportive efforts around 100 -day ema In coming sessions, follow through selling below 44200 would lead to extended correction towards key support of 43500 (June -August lows)

* We expect index to undergo base formation in the 43500 -45000 band in coming week as prices have approached key support amid oversold reading (weekly stochastics of 25 )

* Structurally , Index is undergoing a healthy correction/retracement of entire April -July rally (19 % over 18weeks) in a shallow manner indicating inherent strength

* Our view is backed by following key observations

* Index has retraced 18week rally (38613 -46369 ) by just 38 . 2 % over 11 weeks indicating inherent strength

* PSU banks continue to relatively outperform and could lend some support at lower levels

* Heavy weight private banks including HDFC bank are now oversold and back to their key supports thereby projecting limited downsides

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