The index started the week on a subdued note - ICICI Direct Ltd
Nifty : 24288
Technical Outlook
Day that was .. The equity benchmarks extended losses over fifth session in a row to settle the Monday's session at 24288, down 78 points. Broader market continued to outperform as smallcap index gained 0.35%. Sectorally, Consumer discretionary, realty, metal remained at forefront while IT, FMCG extended a breather.
Technical Outlook :
• The index started the week on a subdued note. However, supportive efforts in the vicinity of 100 days EMA (24010) helped index to recover some of the intraday losses. The daily price action resulted into a small bear candle with lower shadow, indicating extended breather amid stock specific activity.
• The index is likely to start the session on a subdued note tracking rising crude oil prices. The lack of follow through strength above previous sessions high over 10th consecutive session signifies extended breather. However, noteworthy point is that during this corrective phase, index has merely retraced 50% of preceding 7 sessions 1150 points rally. This slower pace of retracement signifies prolongation of healthy consolidation (24600-23600) wherein immediate support is placed at 24000 being placement of three months rising trend line that coincided with gap area seen during 29th July (24040-24136).
• Going ahead, a decisive close above previous session high would be the key monitorable (which has been missing over past ten sessions) which would confirm pause in corrective bias and open the door for to head back towards 24600 in coming weeks. Hence, any corrective dips should be viewed as an accumulation opportunity in a stock backed by strong earnings
• Structurally, since April 2026, index has seen forming sequential “higher lows” while pricing in host of negative news on geopolitical uncertainty and crude oil volatility. Hence as long as Nifty holds above the previous swing low of 23600, the positive bias remains intact.
• The Midcap index has been showing resilience by sustaining well above its 10 days EMA while trading in the vicinity of All Time High. This outperformance is further validated by significant improvement in the broader market as currently 57% of stocks of Nifty 500 universe are trading above 200 days SMA compared to three weeks back reading of 48% that bodes well for durability of buoyancy in the broader market
Intraday Rational :
• Trend – over the past seven sessions, the index has retraced merely 50% retracement level of preceding seven session ~1150- point upmove, indicating slower pace of retracement.
• Levels – Sell around Mondays high of 24436
Nifty Bank : 57498
Technical Outlook
Day that was : Bank Nifty settled the volatile session on a flat note at 57498 wherein private banks outperformed by gaining 0.25%
Te chnical Outlook :
• Index started the week on a subdued note. However, supportive efforts from 50 days EMA helped index to recoup intraday losses entirely. As a result, the daily price action has resulted into a Doji like candle, indicating rise in volatility.
• In today’s session, index is likely to start the session on a muted note tracking rise in crude oil prices. We believe, the index is undergoing healthy consolidation as over past 10 sessions index has merely retraced 50% of preceding seven session rally (56023-58248) yet managed to sustain above its 50 day, 100 day and 200 days EMA. This healthy consolidation has set the stage to resolve higher and challenge the upper band of consolidation placed at 58500 in the coming week. In the process, strong support is placed around 56800 being the placement of four months rising trendline coincided with 100 days EMA
• Another observation is that over last 6 weeks Index has retraced by 38.2% of earlier 3 weeks rally, indicating slower pace of retracement which would help to set stage for next leg of rally.
• The PSU Bank Index has formed a doji like candle while trading above 20 days EMA, indicating temporary pause in momentum. Going ahead, follow through strength above last week week (8857) high would open the door for next leg of up move towards 9100 levels
Intraday Rational :
• Trend - Prolongation of consolidation in vicinity of 57500, indicating positive bias
• Levels : Buy around 80% retracement of Monday’s range
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