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Nifty : 22957

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

Equity benchmarks scaled to a fresh tracking firm global cues. Eventually, Nifty settled Monday’s session on a flat note at 22932. Meanwhile, broader market relatively outperformed as Nifty Midcap and Smallcap gained >0.6%. Sectorally, financials, IT, realty remained in limelight while FMCG, metal underwent profit booking

Technical Outlook:

• The index started the week on a positive note, however fag end profit boking hauled index below 23000 mark. The daily price action resulted into small bear candle, indicating breather after recent sharp up move. In the process, Nifty and Nifty midcap index recorded new life highs

• Going ahead, we maintain our positive bias and expect Nifty to head toward our earmarked target of 23400 in coming weeks. Key point to highlight is that, The Nifty has recorded breakout from three months consolidation backed by faster retracement as it entirely retraced past nine weeks consolidation (22800-21700) in just two weeks. The faster pace of retracement exhibits robust price structure that bodes well for extension of ongoing up move. In the process, we expect volatility to remain high as we approach the fag end of the General election phases coupled with Q4 earning season. We believe, focus should be on big picture, as we are in structural uptrend. The anxiety will subside post event and markets will follow its structural up trend. Retracement of rally would thus provide a buying opportunity and therefore investors should focus on building portfolios and ride the uptrend as immediate support is placed at 22400. Our positive stance is corroborated by following observations:

• A)In sync with the historical evidences, Nifty staged a strong rebound post 5% and clocked a new high, highlighting robust price structure. Empirically, index has corrected ~6% during polling phase of past four elections and eventually hit new highs around election outcome on three occasions

• B) The multi sector participation backed by improving market breadth (Amongst Nifty 500 universe, 77% stocks are trading above 200 days EMA), highlighting inherent strength

• C) Roust price stature of global markets and lower brent prices are expected to act as tailwind

• Structurally, formation of higher peak and trough makes us confident to revise support base upward at 22400 as it is confluence of 20 days EMA coincided with 50% retracement of current up move (21821- 23110) and last week’s low of 22404

Nifty Bank: 49282

Technical Outlook

Day that was :

The Nifty Bank index extended its winning streak for third successive session on Monday to start the week on positive note . Both Public and private banking indices gained 0 . 5 % and 1 . 4 % respectively . Index closed at 48971 , up 203 points or 0 .42 %

Technical Outlook :

• The Bank Nifty index started the session on positive note above 49 k mark and then continued to gain for most part of the session before profit taking in last one hour of trade .

• Price action thus formed a bull candle with higher high -low however higher shadow indicates some profit taking after quick 2100 + points rally in four sessions led prices to overbought zone (daily stochastics at 92 ) .

• Bias continues to remain positive as we expect dips to attract further buying demand and lead index gradually towards psychological mark and life highs at 50000 mark . Elevated support is placed at 48000 which is

• 80% retracement of past four session rally

• Value of rising 50-day ema

• Since late Jan’24 low of 44633 , Index is following a peculiar pattern that each 5 correction is followed by 7 % rally resulting into new highs to be made . This has resulted in a well channeled up move in BankNIfty which is expected to head towards 50000 mark

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