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Nifty : 22666

Technical Outlook

Day that was… Equity benchmarks started the session on a buoyant note tracking firm global cues and recorded new highs. The Nifty settle Monday’s session at 22666, up 153 points or 0.7%. Sectorally, auto, metal, oil & gas outperformed while It, PSU Bank underperformed

Technical Outlook

* The index started the session on a positive note and gradually inched northward as the day progressed. The daily price action formed a bull candle carrying higher high-low, indicating continuation of upward momentum. In the process, midcap index recorded fresh high, highlighting structural improvement

* The formation of higher high-low post breakout from one month consolidation (22525-21710) helped index to clock a fresh all time high of 22697. Going ahead, we reiterate our positive stance and expect Nifty to head towards 23400 by the general election outcome while short term milestone is placed at 22900 in coming weeks. Thus, any temporary breather should be capitalized as incremental buying opportunity as strong support is placed at 22100. Our positive bias is further validated by following observations:

* A. The Bank Nifty is expected to resolve out of three months consolidation (48600-44450) that would further strengthen the leadership of BFSI in next leg of up move. As we expect, Bank Nifty to head towards 49800 while strong support is placed at 47500 which we expect to hold

* B. The current up move is backed by broad based participation as Percentage of stocks above 50days ema rebounded strongly from its bearish extreme (20% levels) to current reading of 70%

* C. The index is showing resilience despite global volatility signaling pre-election rally is brewing up in tandem with historical election year price-behaviour.

* D. Midcap index posted faster retracement of five-week corrective phase in three weeks and recorded new highs, indicating continuation of structural uptrend while small cap index is just 2% away from its All time High

* The sustenance above 50 days EMA highlights inherent strength that makes us revise support base at 22100 as it is confluence of:

* A) 50 days EMA placed at 22038

* B) 61.8% retracement of current up move (21710-22697), at 22164

Nifty Bank: 48581

Technical Outlook

Day that was : The Nifty Bank index eked out marginal gains on Monday to continue its winning streak for fourth consecutive session ahead of inflation data print . Nifty Bank index closed at 48582 , up 88 points or 0 . 2 %

Technical Outlook

* The Index commenced the session on a flattish note after last week’s strong rally and then traded in a narrow range (48650 -48450 ) for most part of the session before settling marginally higher . Price action formed a small candle with higher high -low indicating breather after last weeks sharp rally .

* Last week, index has given a breakout from three month consolidation indicating further acceleration in upward momentum in coming weeks . Hence buying dips would be a prudent strategy to ride the up move for the target for index to 49800 levels which is projection basis past one month trading range (48000 -46200 ) . Meanwhile we expect index to hold key support of 47500

* Structurally, index has undergone healthy consolidation phase since late December 2023 which has set stage for next up move . Within this phase index has maintained its rhythm of forming higher lows near 52 -week ema indicating continuation of structural uptrend

* We are raising immediate support at 47500 as it is confluence of :

* A) 38 . 2 % retracement of recent up move (45828 -48557 )

* B) value of rising 20 -day ema at 47238

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