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Nifty : 21726

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

Equity benchmarks regained upward momentum ahead of US Fed meet outcome coincided with Union budget. Nifty settled the session at 21726, up 204 points or 1%. The market breadth turned positive with A/D ratio of 2:1 as broader market relatively outperformed. Sectorally, all major indices ended in green led by pharma, auto, meta

Technical Outlook

• The index recouped initial losses and recovered most of Tuesday’s losses. The daily price formed a bull candle, indicating extended consolidation amid stock specific action amid earnings progression

• In the upcoming session, we expect volatility to remain high owing to Union Budget coincided with US Fed meet outcome. Going ahead, we expect index to hold the past two week’s low of 21100 amid elevated volatility and gradually resolve higher towards All Time High of 22124 in coming weeks. Thus, accumulating quality stocks on dips would be the prudent strategy to adopt.

Our positive bias is further validated by following observations:

• A) Bank Nifty has approached key support threshold of 200 days EMA amid oversold conditions, indicating impending pullback which would fuel the pullback rally in Nifty (as Bank Nifty carries 35% weightage in Nifty)

• B) The rejuvenation of upward momentum in global market signifies firm global cues that would provide impetus to domestic market

• The formation of lower high-low on the weekly chart signifies pause in upward momentum that would makes us revise support base at 20800 as its is confluence of: A. Price parity of last leg of decline 22124-21285 projected from Tuesday’s high of 21750 B. 38.2% retracement of past two months up move 18838- 22124

Nifty Bank: 45996

Technical Outlook

Day that was :

The Nifty Bank surged on weekly expiry day and ahead of Union budget led by private and public banks alike . Nifty Bank index closed at 45996 , up 629 points or 1 .39 %

Technical Outlook :

• The index started the session on a weak note however buying demand emerged leading the index to head higher for rest of the session . Price action thus resulted in a bull candle, which led index to close above 45660 which is value of 100 -day ema, making current pull back strongest in past four weeks . This is a first sign of a strength and would lead index towards 46500 that also coincides with 50 % retracement of past one month decline (48636 -44429 )

• In the coming session, volatility may remain elevated amid presentation of interim Union budget . However , we expect index to hold key support zone of 44300 - 44000 in current Budget week despite volatility as it is confluence of : • rising 52 -week ema (44122 )

• 61 . 8 % retracement of rally (42105 -48636 ) at 44600

• Equality of current decline with July -Oct 2023 decline ( 9 % ) at 44250

• Structurally, index is undergoing a retracement of November – December rally wherein it gained around 15 % over 9 week period . Index has so far retraced 50 % of the rally over past three weeks and expected to further undergo consolidation while PSU banks are exhibiting strength and likely to outperform

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