The index opened on a flat note and traded within 100 points range throughout the session - ICICI Direct
Nifty :25938
Technical Outlook
Day that was…
Equity benchmarks concluded the monthly expiry session on a flat note, with the Nifty settling at 25,938, amid subdued global cues. Market breadth remained negative, as reflected by an A/D ratio of 1:1.5, while broader markets underperformed, with the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices slipping 0.25% each. On the sectoral front, Metals, PSU Banks and Auto stocks outperformed, whereas IT, Realty and Oil & Gas emerged as the key laggards.
Technical Outlook:
* The index opened on a flat note and traded within 100 points range throughout the session. However, supportive efforts re-emerged near the rising trendline support in place since October 2025. Consequently, the daily price action formed a Doji candle with shadows on both sides, highlighting intraday indecision and a lack of directional conviction.
* Structurally, since past seven-weeks index has been consolidating within the broader range of 25700-26300, underscoring a phase of healthy consolidation following the recent upmove. To negate the ongoing downward move, a decisive close above the previous session’s high is required, which could set the stage for a gradual move towards the 26,300 mark in the coming week. Failure to do so may result in an extension of the corrective phase.
* Nevertheless, the downside appears cushioned, as the index has consistently defended its 50-day EMA over the past two months, which coincides with previous swing low near 25,700, reinforcing this zone as a key support base.
Our constructive bias is outlined on the basis of following observations:
1. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has decisively slipped below 98 after failing to sustain above 100, easing currency-led headwinds. This has fuelled a sharp up-move in base metals, with Copper scaling fresh (all-time highs on MCX), while Aluminum breaks out from a three-year base, signalling the start of a structural uptrend.
2. Historically, since 2017 there have been two such instances when VIX slipped below the 9 mark, and on both occasion the Nifty has formed cup & handle formation and witnessed a positive breakout. In the current scenario too India VIX has fell around 9, with a formation of cup & handle pattern in Nifty, mirroring a similar past rhythm.(as shown in graph)
3. On expected line, USD/INR has retreated from the upper band of rising wedge. Historically, there have been five instances where a retreat in USD/INR from the upper band of this wedge averaging a ~4% decline (with a maximum drawdown of ~7%) over a two-month period was followed by the Nifty delivering average gains of >10% over the subsequent two months.
Key Monitorable for the next week:
* US and India Tarde Deal
* FOMC minutes
Intraday Rational:
* Trend- consolidating within the 25,700-26,300 range for the past seven weeks, highlighting a phase of range-bound activity
* Levels: Buy near 80% retracement level of its preceding up-move (25975- 26440)
Nifty Bank : 59171
Technical Outlook
Day that was:
Bank Nifty ended the session on a positive note on back of mixed global cues settling at 59171, higher by 0.5%. In contrast, the Nifty PSU Bank index & Private Bank Index ended higher by 1.6 and 0.4% respectively.
Technical Outlook:
* From a technical standpoint, the daily price action on Bank Nifty formed is Bullish Engulfing candlestick, which is engulfing previous two days price action, reflecting positive momentum in short term.
* Over the past four weeks, the index has undergone a healthy retracement, and close above its 20-day EMA, and sustenance above earlier gap-up zone. This confluence reinforces the view that the broader uptrend remains intact.
* Index closed above previous session’s high of 59,140 levels , Going ahead follow through buying could trigger a fresh upswing towards 59,500. A decisive breakout above 59,500 would strengthen bullish momentum and open the door for a gradual retest of the all-time high near 60,100.
* Meanwhile, the Nifty PSU Bank index has witnessed faster retracement in Tuesday session as it has retraced last 4 sessions decline (8417-8255) in single day and closed above its 20-day EMA suggesting inherent strength in the index and buying demand at elevated support base .
* A decisive close above the two-month identical highs would confirm a resumption of the uptrend, paving the way for a move towards 8,650 in the coming weeks. Nifty Private Bank Index also relatively outperformed the benchmark gaining 0.4% and rebounded after taking support at 50-day EMA. Going ahead follow through strength above todays high would gradually lead index higher to challenge at 28900 levels
Intraday Rational:
Trend- Consolidation over past 4 weeks
Levels: Buy near 80% retracement level of its preceding up-move (59,065-60,674)
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