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Nifty : 22519

Technical Outlook

Week that was… Nifty closed marginally higher for the week amid global volatility led by reset in interest rate cut expectations in US. Nifty small cap index outperformed with 0.9% gain for the week. Oil&Gas, Metal, Realty and Auto outperformed with >1% gain each. Nifty closed at 22519, up 6 points

Technical Outlook

* The Nifty surrendered the first three session gains on Friday amid global volatility, as participants resorted to profit taking, near higher band of rising channel, after 1100 points rally over past three weeks led prices to overbought readings (daily stochastics >85) Weekly price action resulted in a high wave candle with longer upper shadow indicating profit taking and slowdown in momentum and potential consolidation ahead

* On Monday markets are expected to react to global volatility however we expect declines to attract buying demand in the vicinity of 20-day ema (22370)

* Going ahead, we expect 22800 to act as key resistance, being value of last week highs and upper band of rising channel and lead to healthy price retracement of three week gains, followed by consolidation in 22200-22800 amid stock specific action as Q4FY24 earnings season commences

* Structurally, retracement of recent rally would lead to higher base formation above rising 50-dema and lower band of the channel around 22200 levels. We believe short term consolidation would pave way for eventual target of 23400 by June 2024

* Our positive bias is further validated by following observations:

o The Bank Nifty resolved out of three months consolidation (48600-44450) that has further strengthen the leadership of BFSI with significant weightage

o Breadth: The current up move is backed by broad based participation as Percentage of stocks above 50days ema sustain above 70%

o Midcap index continues to post new highs while small cap is within 0.7% distance and expected to follow with new highs soon

*  We have revised support base to 22200 as it is confluence of:

A) rising 50 days EMA placed at 22105

B) 50% retracement of current up move (21710-22775), at 22242

Nifty Bank: 48564

Technical Outlook

Week that was : The Nifty Bank index snapped sixth session winning streak amid global volatility led by higher than expected US inflation data . Nifty Bank index closed unchanged at 48564

Technical Outlook :

* The Index declined on Friday amid global volatility led by higher US inflation data and gave up past three session gains . Price action for the week formed an inverted hammer like candle with higher shadow indicating profit taking around 49000 mark, as past three week rally over 3000 points led prices to overbought readings

* In the short term, we expect prices to face hurdle around 49000 mark and undergo consolidation in the 47700 - 49000 levels amid progression of earnings season

* Structurally, index has given a breakout from three month consolidation which has set stage for next leg of up move . Within this phase index has maintained its rhythm of forming higher lows near 52 -week ema indicating continuation of structural uptrend

* We are raising immediate support at 47700 as it is confluence of :

* A) 38 . 2 % retracement of recent up move (45828 -49057 )

* B) value of rising 20 -day ema at 47632

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