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Currency Outlook

• Rupee moved in a tight range on Friday despite softness in the dollar and fall in US treasury yields. Further more, decline in crude oil prices and improved global risk sentiments supported the rupee to hold firm against the dollar.

• Rupee is expected to open with a sharp gain due to weaker dollar. Lower than expected US Job numbers in October has raised the bets that the Fed has done with its rate hike regime. The CME Fed watch tool suggest more that 95% probability of Fed pause in December. The slowdown in the service sector also indicated some slowing growth in the US. USDINR is likely to dip towards 83.00, as long as it trades under 83.35. Only a move below 83.00 it would open the doors towards 82.80

Euro and Pound Outlook

• The Euro moved above the 1.07 mark amid weakness in the dollar. The pair moved higher despite weaker set of economic numbers from the Eurozone. The pair is expected move higher towards 1.0770 amid softness in the dollar and improved risk appetite in the global equities. EURINR is likely to rise towards 89.50, as long as it holds above 88.80.

• Pound gained more than 1.40% on Friday amid weakness in the dollar. The pair is expected to hold its gains due to softness in the dollar and increasing expectation that the BOE will continues to hold rates on forecast of higher inflation. GBPUSD could test the next target resistance at 1.2430, as long as it holds 1.23 mark. GBPINR is expected to hold the key support near 102.400 and inch higher towards 103.20 levels.

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