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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

• Rupee depreciated on Friday and settled near 83.27 amid buoyant dollar demand from the local companies. However, the losses got restricted as RBI continued to prevent the rupee from falling below 83.30

• Rupee is expected to appreciate towards 83.10 amid softness in the dollar. The increasing probability of rate cut in April-May 2024 could restrict the upside in the dollar. As per the CME Fed watch tool the probability of rate cut in Apr-May has increased to 62%. Meanwhile, wider trade deficit numbers would limit the upside in the rupee. USDINR is likely to move in the range of 83.10-83.40

Euro and Pound Outlook

• The Euro edged higher on Friday and climbed to 2 month high amid weaker dollar. Further, hawkish ECB comments also supported the pair to move beyond 1.09. The pair is likely to find support near 1.0860 and move higher towards 1.0950 amid softness in the dollar. EURINR is likely to extend its gains towards 91.30, as long as it holds above 90.50.

• Pound appreciated against the dollar and scaled back above the 1.2450 mark amid correction in the dollar. The pair is expected to rise towards 1.2520 as long as it holds above 1.24. GBPINR is 97 expected to hold 103.300 and move higher towards 104.00

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