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Nifty

Nifty has been displaying narrow ranged candlestick formations but yesterday it closed below its previous days close for the first time in last 13sessions. It has managed to retain its close above its 5DEMA support line which is placed at 25190 & a consecutive close below the same may lead to exhaustion. On the other hand, both its trend strength indicators are still showing strength; thus, it is expected that the current bullish series of narrow ranging bodies will continue without any indications of a reversal formation. While the ADX has been rising steadily over 35, the daily RSI is approaching its overbought zone but shows no signs of exhaustion or divergence in strength. Options data suggests that support will be steady near 25,000 for the rest of the week, with a minor obstacle at 25,300 and a significant hurdle at 25,500. Unwinding in the 25300 strikes could provide momentum. We are still optimistic that over the first half of the series, the index will rise steadily towards 25450. Technical targets at 25810 and 25990 may come later. In the unlikely scenario that the index has a weekly closing below 24960, the entire calculation could fail. However, momentum trades have to be trimmed down if the index falls below its 5 DEMA moving average support of 25080.

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