The Bank Nifty closed on a flat note, closing at 57213 , down 0 .07 % - ICICI Direct
Nifty :25476
Technical Outlook
Day that was…
* Indian equity benchmarks closed on a negative note tracking global cues amid tariffs related development and settled at 25476 down 0.18%. Broader markets relatively outperformed the benchmark. Midcap and Small cap indices closed on a flat to positive note. Sectorally, Realty, Metal and Oil & Gas underperformed, while, FMCG, Consumer Durable and Auto outperformed.
* Technical Outlook:
• Index remained within previous sessions range throughout the day where intraday swings created volatility. This resulted into the formation of an Inside bar, indicating prolonged consolidation.
* Key point to highlight is that index over past 8 session has not even retraced 38.20% of preceding 10 sessions up move. Slower pace of retracement approaching indicating robust price structure that bodes well for next leg of up move. The index is sustaining well above the recent consolidation breakout making higher base and staged a strong rebound indicating inherent strength. Index is trading above 20-days EMA, a level that has been largely respected since April-2025 indicating uptrend is intact. We expect index to gradually resolve higher and head towards the 25800 zone in the coming week. Going ahead, all eyes will be on outcome of US-India bilateral trade deal coupled with onset of Q1FY26 earning season which would dictate the further course of action. The better-than-expected outcome would fuel momentum to challenge All Time High in coming month, wherein strong support is placed at 24900. From the seasonality perspective, July has been the favourable month for Nifty since 1991, 71% of the time returns have been positive with an average of 2.5%.
* Structurally, over past three months index has maintained its winning streak while absorbing host of negative news around geo-political uncertainties coupled with clarity of trade tariff. In the process, market breadth has shown gradual improvement as currently ~63% stocks of Nifty 500 universe are trading above 200 days EMA compared to last month's reading of 52% that bodes well for durability of ongoing up move.
* On the broader market front, the Nifty midcap and small cap indices have witnessed flat to positive close outperforming the benchmark and both the indices are now just 3-4% away from their life time highs. Meanwhile, northward inching ratio of Nifty 500 / Nifty 100 makes us believe that broader market would continue with its outperformance.
* On the global macro front, weakness in US Dollar index would result into FII's inflow in emerging markets while cool off in Brent crude oil would boost the market sentiment.
* The formation of higher peak and trough makes us maintain our support base at 24900 for the Nifty which is based on 61.8% retracement of recent rally (24473-25654) and 20-day EMA.
Nifty Bank : 57213
Technical Outlook
Day that was:
* The Bank Nifty closed on a flat note, closing at 57213 , down 0 .07 % . The Nifty Pvt Bank index mirrored this sentiment, and ended on flat note at 28 ,236 , down 0 .02 % .
Technical Outlook
* The Bank Nifty after the initial upmove during first half of the session and witnessed last hour selling and closed within the previous sessions range which resulted in an Inside bar, signaling breather after previous sessions upmove .
* Key point to highlight is that Bank Nifty has retraced 38 . 2 % of the prior twelve -session up move over the past five -sessions, indicating a slow, shallow pullback and a strong price structure . The index remains above its 20 -day EMA, a level it has consistently held since April, signaling the bull market template is intact . This, coupled with positive market breadth, supports the ongoing higher -high -low structure, underscoring a well -established uptrend which open the gates towards 58800 levels in coming quarter which is the implied target of the consolidation from (56098 -53483 ) . The support base is maintained at 55 ,500 , which represents the 50 % retracement of (53 ,483 –57 ,628 ) and aligns with the 50 -day EMA . Consequently, any dip from current levels could offer fresh buying opportunities .
* Underperforming the benchmark, PSU bank witnessed profit booking for third consecutive session, indicating extended breather . The index continues its higher -high -low structure on the daily timeframe and trading above 20 day -EMA, reflecting inherent strength and trend continuity . After breaking out from an eleven - month falling trendline on 19th May, the index has maintained a higher -high -low structure on the weekly chart, signaling an intact uptrend . While Bank Nifty trades below ~ 1 % from its all -time highs, the PSU Bank index remains about 14 % below its all -time high, presenting a compelling case for a catch -up move . Immediate support on the downside is placed at 6 ,700 , which is the recent swing low and coincides with the 20 -week EMA .
* Structurally, Bank Nifty is undergoing phase -wise expansion, with each rally establishing new price zones of acceptance . Instead of sharp directional moves, the index is progressing through brief consolidations that serve as launchpads for subsequent advances . This transition from volatility -driven swings to range -bound bases suggests increasing market maturity, with demand emerging at higher levels . The narrowing amplitude of corrections indicates that stronger hands are absorbing supply, maintaining trend continuity .
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