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Subscriber addition slows down

Bharti/VIL lose active subscribers; RJio continues to gain in all parameters

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has released the subscriber data for Oct’23. The key highlights are as follows:

* VIL/Bharti see a decline in active subscribers:

* The industry’s gross subscriber addition slowed down to 0.8m MoM (vs. +1.7m in Sep’23), to reach 1,151m. Subscriber additions slowed after seeing an increasing trend for three months. The slowdown was largely led by VIL, whose subscriber base declined by 2.0m MoM. RJio/Bharti added 3.2m/0.4m subscribers.

* The active subscriber base for the industry declined 1.4m MoM to 1,045m (vs. 3.4m growth in Sep’23). For the last six months, the active subscriber base has been increasing by an average of 2m per month and the gross subscriber base has been increasing by 1m per month. VIL lost 1.4m active subscriber, while Bharti lost 1.2m. RJio added 1.8m active subscribers.

* The industry’s rural subscriber base grew 0.6m MoM (vs. +1m in Sep’23) to 521m, led by RJio/Bharti’s 1.3m/0.5m subs adds (vs. 1.6m/0.6m in Sep’23). VIL/BSNL continued to lose rural subscribers by 1.0m/0.2m in Oct’23 (vs. -0.4m/- 0.9m in Sep’23). RJio continued to lead in rural markets with a 38.3% share (+20bp MoM), followed by Bharti at 35.1% (+10bp MoM) and VIL at 21.3% (- 20bp MoM).

* 4G subscriber additions slow down: The industry’s 4G subscriber addition slowed to 2.8m MoM (vs. 8m in Sept’23 and 5.9m in last six months), to reach 850m (81% of active subscribers). RJio/Bharti added 3.2m/0.5m, while VIL lost 0.8m.

* Mobile number portability (MNP): Total requests for MNP have been consistently increasing, validated by a higher churn and SIM consolidation. The number of MNP requests in Oct’23 stood at 12.7m (vs. 12.7 in Sep’23), representing 1.2% of the total active subscribers.

* Bharti subscriber addition slows down in Oct’23. It added 0.4m gross subscribers (vs. +1.3m in Sep’23). Bharti lost 1.2m active subscribers (vs. +0.6m in Sep’23); however, active market share was stable at 35.9%. The company’s 4G subscriber additions also slowed to 0.5m (vs. +3.6m in Sep’23), taking its total 4G subscriber base to 251m.

*RJio continued to stand out, with gross/active subscriber additions of 3.2m/1.8m MoM (vs. +3.5m/3.2m in Sep’23). Accordingly, its active market share rose to 40.4% (+30bp MoM, the highest in the industry). 4G subscriber additions stood at 3.2m MoM (vs. +3.5m in Sep’23) to reach 452m.

* VIL continued to witness churn, with a 2m/1.4m MoM decline in gross/active subscribers to 225m/198m (vs. -0.7/+0.4m in Sep’23). Its 4G subscriber base too declined by 0.8m MoM (vs. +1m in Sep’23) to 126m. It lost 10bp MoM 4G market share to 14.8% in Oct’23.

* Wired broadband subscribers for the industry increased 0.5m MoM to 37.4m in Oct’23. RJio/Bharti added 220k/140k subscribers MoM (vs. 160k each adds in Sep’23). BSNL’s net subscribers increased 40k MoM (vs. flat in Sep’23). Sector Update | 4 January 2024 Telecom 5 January 2024 10 Active subscriber base increased in Oct’23

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