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Accelerating growth in 4G subscribers

RJio continues to lead in all parameters

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has released the subscriber data for Sep’23. Here are the key highlights:

? VIL arrests churn in active subscribers:

a. The industry-wide gross subscriber base rose 1.7m MoM to 1,150m (vs. +2.2m in Aug’23). It has increased for the third consecutive month after remaining flat for the previous nine months. The number of VIL subscribers declined 0.7m MoM, while RJio/Bharti added 3.5m/1.3m subscribers, resulting in a rise in the gross subscriber base.

b. The number of active subscribers in the industry increased 3.4m MoM to 1,047m (vs. -3.6m in Aug’23). The active subscriber base has been increasing by an average of 2m per month for the last six months, while the gross subscriber base has been increasing by 1m per month. The increase was led by RJio’s addition of 3.1m subscribers. After losing subscribers for 17 months, VIL added 0.4m subscribers in Sep’23. Bharti added 0.6m subscribers.

c. Industry rural subscribers grew 1m MoM (vs. +1.3m in Aug’23) to 520m, led by RJio/Bharti addition of 1.6m/0.6m subs (vs. 1.6m/0.7m in Aug’23). VIL/BSNL continued to lose rural subscribers by 0.4m/0.9m in Sep’23 (vs. -0.3m/-0.6m in Aug’23). RJio continued to lead in rural markets with a 38.1% share (+30bp MoM), followed by Bharti at 35.0% (flat MoM) and VIL at 21.3% (-10bp MoM).

d. 4G subscriber additions accelerate: The industry continued to accelerate 4G subscriber additions by 8m MoM in Sep’23 (vs. 7.6m additions in Sep’23) to reach 847m (81% of active subscribers). The industry added 4.7m subscribers per month on an average for the last one year, which went up to 7.3m per month in 2QFY24. RJio/ Bharti/ VIL added 3.5m/3.6m/1m subs.

? Mobile number portability (MNP): Total requests for MNP have been consistently increasing, validated by a higher churn and SIM consolidation. The number of MNP requests in Sep’23 stood at 12.7m (vs. 12.7 in Aug’23), representing 1.2% of the total active subscribers.

? Bharti continued to add 1.3m gross subscribers (vs. +1.2m in Aug’23). Gained 0.6m active subscribers (vs -0.4m in Aug’23); however, it lost its active market share by 10bp to 35.9% as VIL reported stable market share. The company’s 4G subscriber additions stood at 3.6m (vs. +2.6m in Aug’23), taking its total 4G subscriber base to 251m.

? RJio continued to stand out with gross/active subscriber additions of 3.5m/3.1m MoM (vs. +3.2m/1.2m in Aug’23). As a result, its active market share increased to 40.1% (+10bp MoM, the highest in the industry). Its 4G subscriber additions stood at 3.5m MoM (vs. +3.2m in Aug’23).

? VIL restricted its churn with a 0.4m MoM increase in active subscribers to 127m (vs. a 1.6m per month decline for the last 17 months). Its 4G subscriber base also increased 1m MoM (vs. +1.3m in Aug’23) to 127m. It lost 4G market share to 14.9% in Sep’23 (-10bp MoM). In terms of gross subscribers, it lost 0.7m subscribers (vs. flat in Aug’23).

? Wired broadband subscribers for the industry increased 0.5m MoM to 36.9m in Sep’23. RJio/Bharti added 160k subscribers each MoM (vs. 190k/ 160k adds in Aug’23). BSNL’s net subscribers were flat MoM (vs. +30k in Sep’23).

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