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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

* Spot gold is to expected to face the hurdle near $2600 and move lower towards $2530 amid strong US dollar and rise in treasury yields. Sticky inflation data and expectation of rise in PPI numbers could derail the Fed’s rate cut plans after December. US PPI is likely to rise to 0.2% MoM. Moreover, long liquidation after the omission of political risk premiums is likely to weigh on the metal prices. Meanwhile, focus will remain on key US weekly unemployment data and speech from the Fed chair which could bring further volatility in price.

* Spot gold is going to move lower as it has breached the key support at $2600 and 50% Fibonacci retracement level $2572 indicating more weakness. Breakdown of the rising trend channel and 50 day EMA indicates correction in price. MCX Gold December is expected to decline towards 73,500, as long as it trades under 75,000.

* MCX Silver is expected to move towards 88,000, as long as it remains under 90,400. Below 88,000 it would open the doors towards 87,000.

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected remain under pressure amid strong dollar and demand concerns from China. Further, growing speculation over new tariff policies from US and weaker economic numbers from China would weigh on the metal prices. Furthermore, weakness in new house prices and industrial production could hurt the metals demand. Meanwhile, hopes of fresh round of stimulus from China could help the metal to limit its losses.

* MCX Copper November is expected to face the hurdle near 810 and move lower towards 795. Only below 795, it would weaken further towards 788.

* MCX Aluminum Nov is expected to move towards 233, as long as it trades under 238.

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to hold the support near $67 and rebound towards $70 ahead of key US inventory data. API data indicated a surprise drop in inventory 0.77 Million barrels. Further, rising crack spread to a 2-month indicates improved demand from refiners. Better than expected demand of oil products would help the oil prices to edge higher. Meanwhile, demand concerns from China and strong dollar would limit its upside. NYMEX Crude oil has been trading below 20 day EMA at $70. Also strong call base near 70 strike indicates price to face stiff resistance.

* MCX Crude oil December is likely to hold the support near 5660 and rise towards 5900. Only above 5900 it would rise towards 6000.

* Natural gas November is expected to hold above 240 and move higher towards 252. Only above 252 it would open the doors towards 260. A reduced drilling activity and forecast of colder weather would provide support to price.

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