Spot gold is expected to hold its gains above $4500 and rise towards $4700 - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
* Spot gold is hovering above $4550 mark on hopes for an end to the prolonged Middle east conflict. Any sign of further progress on ceasefire or end to the conflict could cooldown inflation concerns and increase the prospects of interest rate cut. Further, softer dollar and correction in US treasury yields would support prices. Meanwhile, hawkish central bank comments and massive sell-off from gold ETFs could restrict upside in price. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said the central bank may need to keep rates elevated for some time to address inflation.
* Spot gold is expected to hold its gains above $4500 and rise towards $4700. MCX Gold April is expected to rise towards RS.146,500, as long as it holds above RS.139,000 . Only a move above RS.146,500, it would turn bullish towards RS.148,200.
* MCX Silver May is expected to move towards RS.240,000, as long as it holds above RS.220,000. Above RS.240,000 it would rise towards RS.248,000.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to regain its strength amid improved risk sentiments and softer dollar. Easing US-Iran tensions have improved risk appetite, which is likely to support metal prices. Furthermore, the Yangshan copper premium is currently quoted at $48 per tonne. This reflects a steady recovery in Chinese appetite for imported copper, rising from $42 earlier in the month. Meanwhile, a rapid buildup of exchange stockpiles since the start of the year could restrict any major upside. In the near term MCX Copper March is expected to move towards RS.1135 as long as it trades above RS.1100
* MCX Aluminum March is expected to hold above RS.324 and rise towards RS.338 level. Prices are expected to regain its strength due to supply disruption from the Middle east region.
* MCX Zinc March is likely to hold support near RS.302 level and move higher towards RS.314 level.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX crude oil is hovering under $90 per barrel on reports that US was pushing diplomatic efforts to end the war with Iran. We are expecting volatility in oil prices to remain at elevated level amid ongoing uncertainties over end to the US-Iran conflict, keeping the ‘risk premium’ alive. Meanwhile, a temporary five-day halt on military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and 15-point peace proposal to Iran to end the conflict would further ease geopolitical tension in the Middle east region. For the day, NYMEX crude is likely to move in a broader range of $85 and $95. Only move below $85 it would turn weaker towards $82- $81 zone.
* MCX Crude oil April is likely to move in a broader range of RS.8200 and RS.9000. Only a move below RS.8200 it would slip towards RS.8000.
* MCX Natural gas March future is expected to slip towards RS.265-268 zone as long as it trades under RS.285. NYMEX natural gas is expected to correct further amid easing heating demand in US and rising inventory
Please refer disclaimer at https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html
SEBI Registration number INZ000183631
