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Gold

Gold prices declined by 0.8%, settling at Rs.76,476 as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of U.S. non-farm payroll data. The market anticipates this data will provide further clarity on the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted the U.S. economy remains stronger than initially perceived, suggesting a cautious approach to any further rate adjustments. Meanwhile, the Fed’s Beige Book reported slight economic growth, subdued employment trends, and modest inflation, with businesses expressing optimism about future conditions. In the physical market, demand in India saw mixed activity; price corrections initially boosted interest, but higher rates later dampened momentum. Indian dealers maintained premiums at $3 an ounce, while Chinese demand remained subdued with discounts of $19-$21 an ounce. In other hubs like Singapore and Hong Kong, premiums ranged between $0.50 and $2.50. Central bank purchases surged in October, with a net increase of 60 tons, doubling the 12-month average. India led the charge with 27 tons added, bringing its year-to-date total to 77 tons—five times the previous year's activity. Emerging markets like Turkey and Poland also reported significant additions. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand, excluding OTC trading, remained steady in Q3 at 1,176.5 metric tons. Gold is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 1.58% to 12,567. Support lies at Rs.76,180, with further downside to Rs.75,890 possible. Resistance is at Rs.76,980, and a move above this level could test Rs.77,490.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 75890-77490.

* Gold edged lower as investors held back from placing big bets ahead of non-farm payrolls data

* Powell says Fed can afford to be a little more cautious

* Central bank gold buying skyrockets in October, led by India, Turkey and Poland

Silver

Silver prices declined by 0.93%, settling at Rs.92,424, as investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Data showed initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 224,000 last week, the highest in six weeks and above market expectations of 215,000. Meanwhile, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $73.8 billion in October, slightly better than anticipated. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the economy's resilience, supporting a cautious approach to rate cuts. Echoing similar sentiments, other Fed officials emphasized the lack of urgency for easing monetary policy, with markets pricing a 75% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s December meeting. The global silver deficit for 2024 is expected to narrow by 4% to 182 million ounces, according to the Silver Institute. Demand is forecast to rise to 1.21 billion ounces, driven by record industrial demand and recovering jewelry consumption, despite a 16% decline in physical investment. Mine supply is projected to grow by 1%, supported by higher output from Mexico, Chile, and the U.S., with recycling contributing an additional 5%. India's silver imports surged to 4,554 metric tons in the first half of 2024, significantly higher than the 560 tons imported in the same period last year, reflecting stockpiling due to depleted inventories and rising industrial demand. Silver witnessed long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 0.43% to 24,589. Support lies at Rs.92,040, and a break below could test Rs.91,650. Resistance is pegged at Rs.93,090, with a potential move higher targeting Rs.93,750.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 91650-93750.

* Silver dropped as investors continued to assess Fed’s monetary policy outlook ahead of a key jobs report.

* US initial jobless claims rose to 224,000, from 213,000 in the previous week

* Fed’s Daly said there is no urgency in cutting rates.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined by 0.74%, settling at Rs.5,805 as demand concerns from China and increasing U.S. production dampened market sentiment. OPEC+'s decision to delay restoring halted production failed to boost prices, with markets focused on the risk of oversupply next year. OPEC+ continues to withhold 5.86 million barrels per day, about 5.7% of global demand, to support prices. Russia’s production quotas are set to gradually increase, with projections for steady production through 2025. In the U.S., crude inventories dropped by 5.073 million barrels last week, the sharpest decline in five months and significantly above the expected draw of 1 million barrels. However, gasoline and distillate stockpiles surged by 2.362 million and 3.383 million barrels, respectively, exceeding forecasts. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its global oil demand growth estimate for 2025 downward by 300,000 barrels per day, now forecasting an increase of 1.2 million bpd to 104.3 million bpd. U.S. production is expected to reach smaller record levels, with output forecasted at 13.22 million bpd in 2024, slightly lower than earlier predictions. Crude oil experienced long liquidation, with open interest declining by 1.78% to 9,456 contracts. Prices are currently supported at Rs.5,760, with further declines potentially testing Rs.5,715. On the upside, resistance is observed at ?5,860, and a break above could push prices towards Rs.5,915.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5715-5915.

* Crude oil dropped as weak demand from China and rising production in the U.S. weighed on oil prices.

* OPEC+'s decision to delay restoring halted production failed to lift market sentiment amid expectations of oversupply next year.

* Currently, OPEC+ is withholding 5.86 million barrels per day, about 5.7% of global demand, to support prices.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices rose by 0.62%, settling at Rs.260.3, supported by cooler weather forecasts and increased heating demand expectations over the next two weeks. Rising feed gas deliveries to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants also boosted sentiment, with flows averaging 14.2 bcfd in early December, nearing record levels and up from 13.6 bcfd in November. Weather predictions indicate colder-than-normal conditions through December 7, followed by warmer-than-normal temperatures, potentially moderating heating demand. On the supply front, gas production in the Lower 48 states rose to 102.3 bcfd in December, up from 101.5 bcfd in November but below last year’s record of 105.3 bcfd in December. Despite increased production, U.S. natural gas inventories remain robust, ending the injection season at 3,922 billion cubic feet, 6% above the five-year average. For the week ending November 22, U.S. utilities withdrew 2 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage, defying expectations of a 3 billion cubic feet build, reflecting colder temperatures and rising demand. Natural gas experienced short covering, with open interest dropping by 11.67% to 19,385 contracts. Prices are currently supported at Rs.256.9, with a potential test of Rs.253.6 if this level breaks. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.265.5, and a move above this level could push prices towards Rs.270.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 253.6-270.8.

* Natural gas gained on forecasts for cooler weather and more heating demand over the next two weeks.

* Support also seen amid rising amounts of feed gas flowing to the nation's LNG export plants.

* U.S. producers to boost output in 2025 with rising LNG export demand

Copper

Copper prices dipped by 0.21%, settling at Rs.820.2, as traders assessed global trade uncertainties and awaited further economic stimulus cues from China. Concerns arose around potential U.S. tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump, particularly targeting BRICS nations, which could escalate trade tensions and impact demand for industrial metals. Additionally, Rio Tinto’s projection of a 50% output surge from its Mongolian operations weighed on the supply outlook. On the demand front, positive signs emerged from China, where manufacturing activity expanded for a second consecutive month in November. Chinese imports of unwrought copper in October rose 1.1% year-on-year to 506,000 metric tons, reflecting improved seasonal demand and consumption outlooks. For the first ten months of 2024, total copper imports were up 2.4% at 4.6 million tons. However, a decline in Yangshan copper premiums from $69 per ton in early October to $48 per ton last week hinted at easing import demand. Supply dynamics remain tight globally, with the International Copper Study Group reporting a 131,000 metric ton market deficit in September, compared to a surplus of 43,000 metric tons in August. Copper is undergoing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 3.67% to 6,909 contracts. Prices have support at Rs.817.5, with a break below possibly testing Rs.814.6. Resistance is seen at Rs.825.1, and a move above could lead to Rs.829.8. Market focus remains on trade developments and Chinese stimulus actions.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 814.6-829.8.

* Copper remained in range as market participants looked for more stimulus cues from China.

* The focus is on developments around potential import tariffs proposed by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump

* Rio Tinto forecast higher copper production, mostly on an anticipated 50% output surge from its Mongolian assets.

Zinc

Zinc prices rose by 0.54% to close at Rs.288.95, driven by optimism over potential additional stimulus measures in China, which could boost construction activity and increase demand for zinc. Supporting the bullish sentiment, Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories declined by 10.6% week-on-week. Meanwhile, supply tightness persisted as smelter production remained historically low, despite a slight increase in Q4. Winter stockpiling activity added further pressure to the already constrained supply of zinc concentrate. On the international front, Trafigura Group's substantial withdrawal of zinc stocks from London Metal Exchange warehouses—totaling over 97,225 tons in just two days—fueled a price rally, marking the largest withdrawal surge in over a decade. Chinese customs data reflected strong demand, with refined zinc imports climbing to 58,000 tons in October, a 19.03% year-on-year increase. Cumulative imports for 2024 reached 378,000 tons, up 23.43% compared to the previous year. The global zinc market recorded a deficit of 79,500 metric tons in September, slightly lower than the 85,000-ton deficit in August, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). For the first nine months of 2024, the market showed a marginal deficit of 8,000 tons, contrasting sharply with the 358,000-ton surplus during the same period last year. Zinc saw fresh buying as open interest surged by 8.91% to 3,448 contracts. Prices have immediate support at Rs.287.4, with a break below testing Rs.285.7. Resistance is at Rs.290.6, and a move above could target Rs.292.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 285.7-292.1.

* Zinc gains as Beijing has hinted at potential additional stimulus measures.

* China's customs authorities showed that refined zinc imports reached about 58,000 tons in October 2024

* With the decline in smelter production in Q3, the tight supply of ore has been somewhat alleviated.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged up by 0.04% to Rs.246.1, supported by supply disruptions in major producing regions like Australia and Guinea, and RUSAL’s decision to reduce production by over 6%. The situation was further amplified by raw material shortages, which spurred systemic buying. Global producers have raised premiums for Japanese buyers to $230-$260 per metric ton for Q1 2025, marking a 31%-49% increase from the current quarter. Global primary aluminium production in October reached a record 6.22 million tons, up 3.56% month-on-month and 1.27% year-on-year, according to the International Aluminium Institute. Total production for the first ten months of 2024 was 60.47 million tons, a 2.84% increase compared to last year, indicating strong demand recovery. Meanwhile, China's aluminium exports surged by 17% year-on-year in the January-October period, totaling nearly 5.5 million tons, with October exports alone rising by 31%. Domestic output also grew, with October production at 3.72 million metric tons, up 1.6% year-on-year, supported by higher operating rates in regions like Shandong, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia. The aluminium market saw fresh buying, with open interest increasing by 0.48% to 3,779 contracts. Prices have immediate support at Rs.245.6, with a drop below targeting Rs.245.1. Resistance is expected at Rs.246.7, and a move above this level could push prices to Rs.247.3. 

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 245.1-247.3.

* Aluminium gains amid supply disruptions in Australia and Guinea.

* RUSAL’s decision to cut production by more than 6%, and news of raw material shortages triggered systemic buying.

* IAI: Global primary aluminum output hit record high in Oct

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy prices rose by 0.43% to close at Rs.55,630, supported by firm demand from garment industries and robust export orders. India's cotton production for 2024/25 is projected to decline by 7.4% to 30.2 million bales due to reduced acreage and crop damage caused by excessive rainfall and pests. The USDA has further lowered India’s production forecast to 30.72 million bales, with ending stocks reduced to 12.38 million bales. This decline in production will likely drive imports up to 2.5 million bales from 1.75 million last year, while exports are expected to drop to 1.8 million bales from 2.85 million. Globally, cotton production estimates for 2024/25 have been raised by over 200,000 bales due to higher output in China, Brazil, and Argentina, despite reductions in the U.S. and Spain. The U.S. cotton production is forecasted at 14.2 million bales, down 300,000 due to Hurricane Helene. Domestic mill use and exports have also been reduced, while ending stocks rose slightly to 4.1 million bales. Global ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 76.3 million bales, slightly lower than the previous month, as world trade shrinks by over 500,000 bales due to reduced Chinese imports. The market saw short covering, with no change in open interest at 288 contracts. Prices are supported at Rs.55,470, with a drop below testing Rs.55,310. Resistance is pegged at Rs.55,820, and a breakout above this could drive prices toward Rs.56,010. 

Trading Ideas:

* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 55310-56010.

* Cotton gains as Cotton yarn prices in south India increased.

* India's cotton production in 2024/25 is likely to fall by 7.4% from a year ago

* Cotton production is projected to increase in China, Brazil, and Argentina, more than offsetting reductions in the US and Spain – USDA

* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 25786.95 Rupees dropped by -0.06 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices fell by 1.12%, closing at Rs.13,214 as profit booking emerged after earlier gains driven by robust buying activity. Arrivals increased to 9,030 bags from 7,965 bags in the previous session, with strong inflows recorded in Hingoli and Erode. However, Hingoli markets intermittently closed due to assembly elections in Maharashtra. Low stock levels in the market have kept prices relatively firm, but a delay in new crop arrivals, caused by prolonged vegetation growth due to extended rains, may provide temporary support. Sowing activity has shown significant improvement, with turmeric acreage nearly doubling on the Erode line and increasing by 30-35% in Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh. Last year, turmeric was sown on about 3-3.25 lakh hectares, estimated to rise to 3.75-4 lakh hectares this year. Despite higher sowing, the previous year's unfavorable weather led to reduced production, estimated at 45-50 lakh bags for 2024. Export and import data revealed mixed trends. Exports during April-September 2024 increased marginally by 0.96% year-on-year to 92,911.46 tonnes. Notably, September 2024 exports jumped by 68.69% compared to September 2023 but declined by 4.06% month-on-month. Meanwhile, imports surged by 184.73% during April-September 2024 to 15,742.12 tonnes, reflecting higher domestic demand. The market is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 0.45% to 7,670 contracts. Turmeric finds support at Rs.13,142, with a further decline potentially testing Rs.13,070. Resistance is seen at Rs.13,324, and a break above this level could push prices toward Rs.13,434.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13070-13434.

* Turmeric dropped  on profit booking after prices gained on strong buying activity amid reports of low supplies.

* Turmeric arrivals rose to 9,030 bags from 7,965 bags in the previous session.

* Although crop acreage has improved, delay in harvesting due to prolonged rains may impact the timelines of fresh supplies.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13915.05 Rupees dropped by -0.53 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices fell by 2.06% to close at Rs.23,800, driven by profit booking after earlier gains supported by delayed sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Higher day temperatures have hindered seeding and germination, with Gujarat, the largest producer, reporting sowing over only 57,915 hectares by November 25, compared to 2.44 lakh hectares last year. This accounts for just 15% of the normal 3.81 lakh hectares for jeera cultivation in the state, reflecting a delay of 20-25 days. India’s cumin production for 2023-24 increased to 8.6 lakh tonnes from 11.87 lakh hectares, compared to 5.77 lakh tonnes from 9.37 lakh hectares the previous year. However, cumin production for the upcoming season is expected to decrease by 10%, with Rajasthan’s cultivation anticipated to drop by 10-15%. On the export front, Indian cumin remains highly competitive, priced at $3,050 per tonne, significantly lower than Chinese cumin, which is $200-$250 costlier. This has driven international demand, particularly from Europe and China, with jeera exports during April-September 2024 surging by 70.02% year-on-year to 119,249.51 tonnes. September exports saw a sharp 162.34% rise compared to the same month last year. The market witnessed fresh selling with a 12.11% increase in open interest, settling at 1,389 contracts. Jeera faces immediate support at Rs.23,350, with further downside potential to ?22,900. Resistance is at Rs.24,540, and a break above this level could lead prices to test Rs.25,280.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 22900-25280.

* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained as sowing has been delayed.

* Higher day temperatures in the past few weeks has impacted the seeding of jeera and has also led to poor germination in various places.

* In Gujarat, jeera sowing has taken place in only 57,915 hectares till November 25 during the rabi 2024-25 cropping season.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 24526.2 Rupees dropped by -0.01 percent.

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