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Gold 

Gold prices experienced a 0.48% increase, reaching 60826, primarily due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. Investors eagerly awaited U.S. economic data to gauge the Federal Reserve's future policy decisions. October showed a slight uptick in U.S. business activity, while the Eurozone witnessed an unexpected decline in output, highlighting the contrasting paths of central bankers in these regions. China's gold consumption in the first three quarters of 2023 surged by 7.32% compared to the previous year, reaching 835.07 metric tons. A significant portion of this consumption, approximately 66% (552.04 tons), was in gold jewelry, marking a 5.72% year-on-year increase. However, gold jewelry consumption slowed in the third quarter due to cautious buyers reacting to persistently high gold prices. The People's Bank of China continued its gold purchases for the eleventh consecutive month, increasing its reserves to 2191.55 tons by the end of the third quarter. Looking ahead, investor focus shifts to U.S. third-quarter GDP figures and the U.S. PCE price index, both of which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. Currently, markets widely anticipate the Fed will maintain its current interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting. From a technical perspective, the market has witnessed fresh buying momentum, with a 0.55% increase in open interest, settling at 14630. Prices rose by 289 rupees. Gold now finds support at 60430, and if it falls below this level, it may test 60035. On the flip side, resistance is expected at 61065, and a move beyond this could lead to price testing 61305.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 60035-61305.
* Gold gained buoyed by continued conflict in the Middle East
* Investors looked forward to key U.S. economic data for further cues on the Federal Reserve's policy path.
* China's Jan Sept gold consumption climbs over 7% on rising investment interest

Silver

Silver prices remained unchanged at 71787, held back by a stronger U.S. dollar. This was primarily due to an unexpected expansion in the U.S. private sector, which raised concerns about the Federal Reserve implementing more restrictive interest rates. When interest rates rise, it makes holding non-yielding assets like silver less attractive. In Europe, PMI figures continued to signal weak economic performance, further dampening global demand prospects for silver. On the U.S. front, new single-family home sales surged by 12.3% in September 2023, reaching their highest level since February 2022. This was driven by limited supplies of existing homes, which increased demand for new housing and homebuilding. However, building permits in the U.S. decreased by 4.5% in September, largely due to rising mortgage rates impacting housing demand. Despite this, the ongoing shortage of available homes provided some support. Investor attention is now focused on upcoming U.S. third-quarter GDP figures and the U.S. PCE price index, which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. Market expectations lean toward the Fed maintaining current rates in the upcoming policy meeting. From a technical standpoint, the silver market experienced fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing by 4.79% to 19031. Silver prices remained steady at a difference of just 1 rupee. Silver currently finds support at 71180, and if it drops below, it may test 70570. On the other hand, resistance is anticipated at 72195, and a move beyond this level could push prices to test 72600.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 70570-72600.
* Silver edged down weighed by stronger US dollar
* Sales of new single-family houses in US surged by 12.3% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 759 thousand in September 2023
* Investor attention turns to U.S. third-quarter GDP figures and the U.S. PCE price index that could impact the Fed’s outlook on interest rates.

Crude oil 

Crude oil prices surged by 1.49% to reach 70.78 per barrel as investors closely monitored the unfolding geopolitical situation in the Middle East. There were concerns that the Israel-Hamas conflict might intensify, potentially disrupting oil supplies in the region. However, the commitment of the United States and Saudi Arabia to diplomatic efforts aimed at stabilizing the Middle East helped ease worries of major disruptions in the oil market. Government data revealed an unexpected increase in US crude inventories by 1.371 million barrels last week, a stark contrast to market expectations of a 239 thousand barrel increase. This data contradicted industry reports from earlier in the week. Additionally, crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub rose by 213 thousand barrels, rebounding from a 758 thousand barrel decline in the previous week. Gasoline stocks increased by 156 thousand barrels, defying forecasts of a 897 thousand barrel drop. On the other hand, distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, decreased by 1.686 million barrels, exceeding the consensus estimate of a 1.168 million barrel decline. From a technical standpoint, the market saw short covering as open interest dropped by 7% to settle at 4,994. Despite this, prices climbed by 104 rupees. Crude oil is currently finding support at $69.07, and if it falls below this level, it could test $67.35. On the upside, resistance is expected at $71.84, and a move above this level could see prices testing $72.89.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6735-7289.
* Crude oil rises watching Middle East geopolitics fearing supply disruption
* The US and Saudi Arabia announced their commitment to diplomatic efforts aimed at maintaining stability in the Middle East
* Crude oil inventories in the US rose by 1.371 million barrels

Natural Gas

The natural gas market experienced a 1.86% price increase, settling at 279.9, driven by forecasts of colder weather and increased heating demand in the coming week. This rise occurred despite record-high production levels and a generally mild weather outlook through early November. Notably, gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states reached an average of 103.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in October, surpassing previous levels. While the weather remains relatively mild, the shift towards colder, winter conditions is expected. Consequently, the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) predicts a substantial increase in U.S. gas demand, including exports, from 97.0 bcfd this week to 104.6 bcfd next week. It's worth mentioning that this forecast, although robust, is slightly lower than LSEG's previous outlook. On the production and export front, pipeline exports to Mexico decreased slightly in October compared to the record high in September. In contrast, gas flows to major U.S. LNG export facilities showed a steady increase, reaching 13.6 bcfd in October, up from 12.6 bcfd in September. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest dropped by -6.21% to settle at 13,226, while prices rose by 5.1 rupees. Natural gas finds support at 275.3, and a break below this level could test 270.7. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 284, and a move beyond this level may lead to a test of 288.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 270.7-288.1.
* Natural gas climbed on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand next week.
* That price increase came despite record production over the past few days and a mostly mild weather outlook through early November.
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 103.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October

Copper

Copper prices decreased by -0.81% to 700.15 due to a stronger dollar and a sluggish euro zone economy, offsetting China's economic stimulus efforts. China approved a substantial 1 trillion yuan bond issue for disaster recovery and infrastructure improvement, reaffirming their commitment to economic growth. This comes despite a near-guaranteed 5% full-year GDP growth target. The global refined copper market reported a 33,000 metric ton deficit in August, up from July's 30,000 metric ton deficit, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). However, the market still showed a surplus of 99,000 metric tons for the first 8 months of the year, a significant change from the 313,000 metric ton deficit during the same period the previous year. In August, global refined copper output was 2.25 million metric tons, slightly below consumption at 2.28 million metric tons. When accounting for changes in Chinese bonded warehouse inventory, there was a 34,000 metric ton deficit in August, a slight improvement from July's 39,000 metric ton deficit. China's copper cathode output in September saw a 2.3% month-on-month increase, reaching 1.01 million metric tons, reflecting an 11.3% year-on-year growth. From a technical perspective, the copper market is witnessing fresh selling as open interest surged by 22.55% to settle at 8,327, causing prices to drop by -5.7 rupees. Support is at 697.9, with potential testing of 695.4, while resistance is expected at 704.6, and a move above could lead to testing 708.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 695.4-708.8.
* Copper fell amid stronger dollar and further signs of stagnating euro zone economy
* China's top parliament approved a 1 trillion yuan bond issue, adding that the funds would be spent rebuilding disaster zones and improving infrastructure
* The global refined copper market showed a 33,000 metric tons deficit in August

Zinc

Zinc prices rose by 0.7% to 222.45 thanks to China's new stimulus plans, bolstering industrial demand. Beijing's commitment to manufacturing investments and increased borrowing for the year signals optimism for industrial input demand and alleviates concerns about low demand in the residential construction sector. In August, the global zinc market surplus expanded to 22,000 metric tons from a mere 2,900 tons the previous month. For the first eight months of the year, there was a global surplus of 489,000 tons, compared to 156,000 tons in the same period last year. China's plans to issue over 1 trillion yuan in government bonds for infrastructure investment and economic growth further supported market sentiment. However, the euro zone saw a decline in consumer confidence, and Germany's economy is expected to contract in the third quarter due to various factors. Domestically, zinc ingot inventories stand at 102,600 metric tons, but with increased imports and production, supplies are expected to grow. Technically, the zinc market is experiencing fresh buying, with open interest rising by 7.28% to settle at 3,611. Prices increased by 1.55 rupees. Support is at 221.5, with potential testing of 220.5, while resistance is expected at 223.1, and a move above could lead to testing 223.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 220.5-223.7.
* Zinc gains as China’s fresh stimulus announcements supported the outlook on industrial demand.
* Beijing stated it would widen its budget for the year to borrow an extra CNY 1 trillion and focus on manufacturing investments
* The global zinc market surplus widened to 22,000 metric tons in August from 2,900 tons a month earlier

Aluminium

Aluminium prices saw a modest uptick of 0.17% to close at 204.95, bolstered by an improved demand outlook. China's announcement of fresh stimulus measures to support its economy provided a positive sentiment. However, it's important to note that aluminum capacity in China is near its peak, indicating limited short-term growth prospects. Demand for aluminum ingot and billet from social warehouses dipped, while downstream orders showed some improvement after the National Day holiday, though they didn't meet expectations. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased slightly to 626,000 mt, and aluminum billet inventory also saw a modest decline, standing at 107,200 mt as of October 19. On a global scale, primary aluminum production increased by 2.7% YoY in September, with China's output rising by 5.3% to 3.58 million tonnes during the same period. In the first nine months of the year, China's aluminum production registered a 3.3% growth. From a technical standpoint, the market witnessed short covering as open interest dropped by -3.07% to 3506. Prices moved up by 0.35 rupees. The immediate support level for Aluminium is at 204.3, with the possibility of testing 203.7 if it falls below. Resistance is expected at 205.5, and a breakthrough could lead to price testing 206.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 203.7-206.1.
* Aluminium gains amid China's decision to roll out fresh stimulus measures
* Aluminium ingot inventory stood at 626,000 mt, down 10,000 mt from October 16
* Global aluminium output rises 2.7% year on year in September

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy saw a 0.66% increase, closing at 58,200, following the USDA's October WASDE report, which reduced U.S. cotton production in 2023/24 to 12.8 million bales due to lower yields in Texas. Brazil is expected to surpass the U.S. in cotton production, nearly overtaking U.S. cotton exports for the first time since the 19th century. Australia's cotton exports to China spiked to 61,319 metric tons worth $130 million in August, benefiting from improved trade relations. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) revised its crop production estimate for the 2022-23 season to 31.8 million bales, up from the initial estimate of 34.4 million bales. However, this remains below the government's estimate of 34.3 million bales for the season. The 2023-24 season in India is projected to yield 330-340 lakh bales. Cotton production in Telangana decreased due to unfavorable seasonal conditions, while cotton picking is expected to gain momentum in November. The market in Rajkot closed at 27,445 Rupees, with a slight gain of 0.04%. Technically, the market is experiencing fresh buying with a 0.93% increase in open interest. Cottoncandy's price is up by 380 rupees. Support is at 58,200, while resistance is expected at the same level.

Trading Ideas:

* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 58200-58200.
* Cotton gained as USDA cut U.S. production in 2023/24 to 12.8 million bales
* The USDA also said Brazil's cotton production in 2023/24 will exceed that of the United States for the first time
* Australia's exports of cotton to China ballooned to 61,319 metric tons worth $130 million in August
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 27445 Rupees gained by 0.04 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric closed 0.32% higher at 13212, driven by concerns over potential yield losses due to unfavorable October weather. While October is expected to be drier than average, the crop condition currently appears favorable. Harvest readiness is slated for January to March. The market benefits from both robust export opportunities and increased global demand, with a 25% rise in exports. Turmeric seeding is expected to decline by 20-25% this year, notably in regions like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. This decline is due to farmers' shifting priorities. During April to August 2023, turmeric exports increased by 11.51% compared to the previous year. However, in August 2023, exports dropped by 18.20% from July but only decreased by 6.67% from August 2022. In Nizamabad, a significant spot market, turmeric's price closed at 13524.1 Rupees, marking a -0.32% decrease. From a technical perspective, short covering was observed, with open interest dropping by -1.94% to settle at 13675. Prices increased by 42 rupees. Currently, turmeric finds support at 12846, and a further decline could test levels of 12482. On the upside, resistance is likely at 13582, with a break potentially pushing prices to 13954.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12482-13954.
* Turmeric gains due to the potential for yield losses caused by the crop's anticipated unfavourable October weather.
* However upside seen limited amid improved crop condition due to favorable weather condition.
* Support is also evident for improved export opportunities.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13524.1 Rupees dropped by -0.32 percent.

Jeera

Jeera faced a 2.17% decline, closing at 49890, driven by profit booking and weak export demand. Notably, the subdued export demand was influenced by a preference for cumin from other countries, like Syria and Turkey, due to higher Indian prices. This trend is expected to persist due to export seasonality and unfavorable price competitiveness for Indian cumin. Indian cumin exports for April to August 2023 dropped by 23.76% compared to the previous year. In August 2023, there was a 2.61% drop in exports compared to July 2023 and a substantial 66.98% drop from August 2022. Additionally, China, a significant buyer of Indian cumin, reduced its purchases recently, affecting overall Indian cumin exports. The uncertainty in the market is further compounded by the possibility of China resuming its purchases in October-November, just before the arrival of new cumin crops. Unfavorable weather conditions in Gujarat are expected to lead to increased arrivals of cumin, which will act as a cap on any upward price movements. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed the supply this year, with supply likely falling short by 20 lakh bags. In the major spot market of Unjha, cumin prices ended at 51609.75 Rupees, down by -0.4%. From a technical perspective, the market observed long liquidation, with open interest dropping by -3.63% to settle at 4137. Prices also decreased by -1105 rupees. Currently, Jeera is finding support at 48470, and a further decline could test levels of 47050. On the upside, resistance is likely to be encountered at 50840, and a break above that level could lead to a test of 51790.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 47050-51790.
* Jeera dropped due to profit booking amid subdued demand due to sluggish export demand.
* However, downside seen limited amid limited availability of quality crop.
* Export is likely to remain down in upcoming months as per the export seasonality.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 51609.75 Rupees dropped by -0.4 percent.

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