IGI Logo

Gold

Gold settled 1.13% higher at Rs. 147,489 as the dollar and US Treasury yields remained under pressure, while investors assessed the outlook for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. US consumer prices accelerated in September, driven by surging gasoline costs, with broader inflation pressures raising concerns about persistent underlying inflation. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated that further rate increases might be necessary but saw no need to act in October, while Michelle Bowman supported waiting and Alberto Musalem emphasized the need to restore inflation to the 2% target. Markets priced in a 29% probability of an October rate hike, up from 22% before the inflation data. The IMF warned that elevated public debt and war-driven inflation could push bond yields higher. Physical gold demand in India remained sluggish, with discounts narrowing to $6 per ounce from $14 previously, while China traded at a $10 premium following the Golden Week holiday. London vaults held 9,821 tonnes of gold at the end of September, up 1.96% month on month and valued at $1.3 trillion. China's central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 23 consecutive months, increasing holdings to 77.47 million fine troy ounces from 76.73 million ounces, although the reserve value declined to $323.52 billion from $350.08 billion. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 gold forecast at $5,400 per ounce, citing continued central bank diversification, while warning that three additional US rate hikes could trigger a correction toward $4,070 before a recovery to $4,200 by end-2026. Technically, gold is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 2.86% to 17,085 contracts while prices gained Rs. 1,641. The market is finding support at Rs. 147,040, below which prices could test Rs. 146,600. Resistance is placed at Rs. 147,990, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs. 148,500.

Trading Ideas:

• Gold trading range for the day is 146600-148500.

• Gold prices climbed as the dollar and US Treasury yields remained under pressure.

• Fed officials signal patience despite hot inflation

• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said further rate increases would probably be needed

• US consumer prices accelerate in September

Silver 

Silver settled 1.11% higher at Rs. 210,660 as the dollar retreated from an 18-month high following mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding further interest rate increases. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated that additional rate hikes might be necessary to control inflation but saw no need for immediate action at the October 27-28 meeting, while Michelle Bowman supported waiting and assessing economic developments. However, US retail sales rose 0.8% month on month in September 2026, exceeding expectations of 0.3%, while producer prices surged 1.3%, marking the sharpest increase since March 2022. Core producer prices increased 0.7%, and the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index climbed to 25.5 from 7.6, indicating stronger economic activity and persistent inflationary pressures. London vaults held 28,985 tonnes of silver at the end of September, up 1.95% month on month and valued at $56.6 billion. The global silver market is projected to record its sixth consecutive annual deficit in 2026, with the shortfall widening to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Approximately 762 million ounces have been drawn from stocks since 2021, highlighting continued supply tightness despite improving market liquidity. Total demand is expected to decline 2%, while industrial fabrication could fall 3% to a four-year low amid weaker industrial and jewellery consumption. Conversely, coin and bar demand is forecast to increase 18%, supported by recovering investment demand in the United States. Global silver supply is projected to decrease 2%, reinforcing concerns over structural shortages. Silver prices have declined 35% from their January record high of $121.6 per ounce following the exceptional 147% rally in 2025. Technically, silver is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 1.3% to 20,420 contracts while prices gained Rs. 2,322. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 208,780, below which prices could test Rs. 206,900. Resistance is seen at Rs. 212,020, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs. 213,380.

Trading Ideas:

• Silver trading range for the day is 206900-213380.

• Silver rose as dollar retreated from an 18-month high.

• US producer prices soared by 1.3%, the sharpest increase since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in March of 2022

• Fed Daly signaled that the U.S. central bank will likely need to raise short-term interest rates further to address inflation.

• As at end September 2026, the amount of silver held in London vaults was 28,985 tonnes, a 1.95% increase on previous month.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 1.63% higher at Rs. 9,177 amid mounting supply concerns in the Middle East, escalating attacks on shipping and disruptions to Russian energy infrastructure. The US Central Command confirmed that an Iranian projectile struck a Singapore-flagged container ship that subsequently sank in the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying concerns over physical oil flows and pushing tanker rates to record highs. Potential US measures to ease restrictions on certain Russian shadow fleet tankers offered some relief by potentially improving shipping flexibility and reducing freight costs, although regional conflict and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries limited the downside. US crude inventories declined sharply, with the Energy Information Administration reporting an 8.6 million barrel draw to 415.6 million barrels in the week ended October 9, significantly exceeding expectations for a 288,000 barrel decline. Gasoline inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels to 208.3 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by 2.5 million barrels to 102.6 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose 0.8 percentage points to 93.5%, and net crude imports declined by 596,000 barrels per day. The International Energy Agency reported that Russian crude production increased by 65,000 barrels per day in September to 8.43 million barrels per day, remaining 870,000 barrels per day below year earlier levels. Russian crude exports rose to 5.3 million barrels per day, while refinery operations remained constrained by Ukrainian attacks. OPEC lowered its 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million barrels per day at the start of the year, marking its sixth consecutive downward revision, but raised its outlook for 2027 as depleted inventories are expected to require rebuilding. OPEC also reported increased September production across the wider OPEC+ group, led by Saudi Arabia. Technically, crude oil is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest surging 42.33% to 10,588 contracts alongside a Rs. 147 price increase, indicating strengthening bullish participation. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 8,935, below which prices could test Rs. 8,690. Resistance stands at Rs. 9,310, and a sustained move above this level could open the way toward Rs. 9,445.

Trading Ideas:

• Crude Oil trading range for the day is 8690-9445.

• Crude oil gained amid mounting supply concerns in the Middle East.

• However, attacks on ships in the Middle East and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure limited the decline.

• US crude oil inventories fell by 11.12 million barrels, marking the largest draw since late January - API

• IEA says Russian oil output up 65,000 bpd in September, still down on the year

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 0.69% higher at Rs. 306, supported by a smaller-than-expected increase in US inventories and declining production, although profit booking limited gains. Lower 48 production averaged 110.8 billion cubic feet per day in October so far, down from record levels of 113.3 billion cubic feet per day in August and September, amid hurricane-related shutdowns, force majeure events and pipeline disruptions. However, forecasts for milder-than-normal weather through October 29 could restrain heating and cooling demand, while average feedgas deliveries to major US liquefied natural gas export terminals declined to 17.5 billion cubic feet per day from 17.9 billion cubic feet per day in September. US natural gas inventories increased by 67 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 9, below market expectations of 76 billion cubic feet, the previous week's 85 billion cubic feet injection and the five-year seasonal average of 90 billion cubic feet. Total inventories reached 3.567 trillion cubic feet, remaining 3.9% below year earlier levels but 1.3% above the five-year seasonal average. The US Energy Information Administration projected dry gas production to rise to 112.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 116.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2027, while domestic consumption is expected to reach 92.4 billion and 93.8 billion cubic feet per day, respectively. Liquefied natural gas exports are forecast to increase to 17.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 18.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2027. Despite rising demand and exports, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 natural gas price forecast to $2.80 per million British thermal units from $3.50, citing stronger Permian production and projected supply growth exceeding demand growth by more than 2 billion cubic feet per day. The bank expects comfortable supply conditions to persist, limiting the scope for sustained price gains in the medium term. Technically, natural gas is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 5.99% to 31,865 contracts while prices increased by Rs. 2.10. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 301.50, below which prices could test Rs. 296.50. Resistance is seen at Rs. 313.50, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs. 320.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Natural Gas trading range for the day is 296.50-320.50.

• Natural gas dropped on profit booking after prices climbed as data showed a smaller-than-expected increase in storage.

• US natural gas inventories increased by 67 billion cubic feet in the week ending October 9, falling short of market expectations.

• Supply constraints have also supported prices, with Lower 48 production averaging 110.8 billion cubic feet per day so far in October.

• However, forecasts for milder-than-usual weather through October 29 could restrain heating and cooling demand.

Copper

Copper settled 0.37% lower at Rs. 1,398.80 amid profit booking, reduced concerns over mine supply disruptions, weakness in artificial intelligence stocks and renewed inflation concerns that increased the likelihood of further US interest rate hikes. US consumer prices accelerated in September, weighing on industrial metals sentiment, while a deal between supervisors' union and management at Chile's Escondida mine, the world's largest copper mine, helped ease immediate supply concerns. However, supply risks persisted after Chilean state miner Codelco partially suspended operations at its El Teniente mine following a landslide, while labour disputes continued at Antofagasta's Centinela mine. Antofagasta reported a 7% increase in third-quarter copper production and maintained its annual outlook. China's copper imports rose 20.7% month on month to 461,000 tonnes in September, while Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored inventories increased by 20,000 tonnes from end-September to 58,744 tonnes. Chilean copper production showed mixed trends, with Codelco's August output rising nearly 9% year on year to 101,700 tonnes, while Escondida production plunged 27.6% to 76,100 tonnes and Collahuasi output declined 25.1% to 26,500 tonnes. The International Copper Study Group projected the global refined copper market to remain in surplus, widening from approximately 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027. Refined copper production is forecast to increase 0.4% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, supported by new smelting and refining capacity in Indonesia, India and the European Union. Meanwhile, refined copper usage is expected to grow 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, supported by electrification, renewable energy, urbanisation, digitalisation and data centre demand. Technically, copper is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest increasing 1.71% to 7,274 contracts while prices declined by Rs. 5.15, indicating strengthening bearish participation. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 1,392.50, below which prices could test Rs. 1,386.50. Resistance is seen at Rs. 1,405.00, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs. 1,411.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Copper trading range for the day is 1386.50-1411.50.

• Copper eased hit by profit-taking on reduced worries about supply, concerns about rising inflation and interest rates.

• Adding to the downside pressure, US consumer prices accelerated in September, putting a rate hike later this month back on the radar.

• Chilean miner Antofagasta reported a 7% rise in third-quarter copper production

Zinc

Zinc settled 0.26% lower at Rs. 414.60, tracking weakness in London Metal Exchange prices, which fell to $3,670, their lowest level since early August, amid expectations of increased Chinese zinc concentrate availability and a stronger US dollar. Chinese mine production is expected to recover month on month in October as operations resume following accident-related disruptions and safety inspections. However, supply risks persist in Western markets, where refined zinc production declined 3.4% year on year in the first half of 2026 amid elevated energy costs and raw material shortages. Nyrstar's strategic review of its loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands has raised concerns over potential production cuts. China's refined zinc production declined 1.9% month on month and 6.4% year on year in September, while Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored inventories increased 1.8% from the previous release on September 30. In contrast, Mitsui Kinzoku plans to produce 117,700 tonnes of refined zinc in Japan during the second half of fiscal 2026, up 32% year on year. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global refined zinc market recorded a surplus of 13,000 tonnes in July, with supply increasing 0.3% to 1.190 million tonnes and demand rising 0.56% to 1.177 million tonnes. However, global zinc mine production declined 8% year on year to approximately 995,000 tonnes, marking the fifth consecutive monthly contraction and the steepest decline since May 2024. China's net imports of refined zinc plunged 79% year on year to 38,000 tonnes during January to June, reflecting expanding domestic smelting capacity and improving self-sufficiency. Rising Chinese exports have eased some tightness in the London market, although continued backwardation indicates relatively tight nearby supply conditions. Technically, zinc is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 1.64% to 1,974 contracts alongside a price decrease of Rs. 1.10, indicating position reduction amid weakening prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 412.50, below which prices could test Rs. 410.50. Resistance is seen at Rs. 416.50, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs. 418.00.

Trading Ideas:

• Zinc trading range for the day is 410.50-418.00.

• Zinc dropped tracking LME prices fell to $3,670, their lowest level since early August.

• Chinese mine output is expected to rise month-on-month in October as operations resume.

• However, supply concerns persist in Western markets, where zinc production fell by 3.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2026.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.84% higher at Rs. 322.95, supported by tightening London Metal Exchange inventories, which declined to 238,375 tonnes, the lowest level of the 21st century. Off-warrant LME stocks fell to 73,509 tonnes, the lowest since reporting began in 2020, indicating limited immediately available supply. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories declined 7.8% from the September 30 release, while easing restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz improved Gulf smelters' access to international markets, moderating supply concerns. Indonesia is ramping up new capacity, with aluminium exports exceeding 150,000 tonnes in August, while China's aluminium exports increased 17.2% year on year, helping offset supply disruptions in the Gulf. China is expected to produce 45.7 million tonnes of primary aluminium in 2027, up 0.9% year on year, while approximately 6 million tonnes of annual smelting capacity is expected to be added outside China between 2026 and 2028. The International Aluminium Institute reported that global aluminium production declined 1.5% year on year in August, while Chinese production increased 3% to a record 3.87 million tonnes. Gulf Cooperation Council production plunged 43% to 299,000 tonnes, highlighting the region's continuing supply challenges. Japanese aluminium buyers agreed to premiums of $255 per tonne for October-December shipments, down 35% from the previous quarter. Macquarie reduced its estimated global aluminium market deficit for 2026 to 820,000 tonnes, 120,000 tonnes below its June forecast, citing faster-than-expected Middle Eastern production restarts. It also projected average aluminium prices of $3,050 per tonne in 2027, compared with $3,325 in 2026, reflecting expectations of improving supply. Technically, aluminium is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 10.78% to 3,999 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs. 2.70, indicating strengthening bullish participation. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 317.50, below which prices could test Rs. 312.00. Resistance is seen at Rs. 326.00, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs. 329.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Aluminium trading range for the day is 312.00-329.50.

• Aluminium gained as LME registered aluminium inventory fell to 238,375 tonnes, the lowest level of the 21st century.

• China is expected to produce 45.7 million tons of primary aluminum in 2027, up 0.9% year-on-year.

• Citi cut its three-month aluminium price forecast to $3,000 per metric ton from $3,300.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 0.89% lower at Rs. 24,356 due to profit booking after recent gains, although renewed demand, reduced stockist selling and tight spot availability continued to provide underlying support. Stockholders have become reluctant to liquidate inventories, while concerns over El Niño-related dry spells and their potential impact on crop yields remain significant. Karnataka's joint drought survey reported turmeric crop losses across 13,446 hectares, valued at Rs. 188.24 crore, against a state cultivation area of approximately 18,000–20,000 hectares. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, compared with over 20 lakh bags last season, indicating a reduced supply buffer. However, India's turmeric production is projected to increase approximately 15% in 2026, supported by an estimated 20% expansion in acreage, particularly in Maharashtra. Improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, along with reservoir replenishment in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, has eased immediate crop failure concerns. Re-sowing has also been completed in North Karnataka following rainfall, although sustained weather improvement remains crucial for yield development. Export performance remained mixed, with India's turmeric exports declining 10% year on year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative exports increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes during April–July, compared with 63,020 tonnes last year. Shipments to Turkey surged 431% to 3,007 tonnes, Sri Lanka increased 644% to 156 tonnes, and Nigeria rose 983% to 69 tonnes. Tighter European Union maximum residue limit requirements are creating pressure on non-compliant commercial grades, while demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric supports compliant stocks. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, prices edged up 0.06% to Rs. 22,668.35. Technically, turmeric is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 1.63% to 16,905 contracts alongside a price fall of Rs. 218, indicating reduced participation amid weakness. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 23,940, below which prices could test Rs. 23,530. Resistance is seen at Rs. 24,910, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs. 25,460.

Trading Ideas:

• Turmeric trading range for the day is 23530-25460.

• Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained on renewed demand and reduced stockist selling, getting support from tight spot supply.

• Pressure was there amid increased selling pressure from farmers seeking to liquidate stocks during the current peak harvest window.

• Stockholders, are now withholding stocks after earlier liquidation phases, effectively tightening spot availability just as demand improves.

• In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 22668.35 Rupees gained by 0.06 percent.

Jeera 

Jeera settled 1.84% higher at Rs. 26,810 amid tightening supplies of premium-quality bold seeds, reduced arrivals and expectations of improved export demand during the lean season. Farmers are holding back stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing window, while the futures curve continues to indicate tight nearby availability. However, aggressive farmer selling to generate cash for the upcoming season, rising NCDEX warehouse stocks and cautious procurement by industrial spice grinders are limiting the upside. Export demand remains mixed, with European and North American buyers targeting residue-compliant, high-specification lots, while geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to disrupt logistics and weigh on traditional demand. Improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria are also putting pressure on Indian export premiums. Domestic production estimates indicate India's cumin output could decline to 90–92 lakh bags this year from 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat production is estimated at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan output is projected at 48–50 lakh bags. Adverse weather has reportedly reduced China's production estimates to 70,000–80,000 tonnes, while Syria's output is expected at 9,000–10,000 tonnes, Turkey's at 10,000–11,000 tonnes and Afghanistan's at 10,000–12,000 tonnes. Blight outbreaks in parts of Gujarat have also affected harvest quality and quantity, while the availability of export-grade bold seeds is tightening faster than overall physical supply. Favorable weather in northwestern India accelerated harvesting and drying, but tapering arrivals across Unjha and Rajasthan are supporting prices. In Unjha, a major spot market, prices declined 0.38% to Rs. 25,577.95, contrasting with the rise in futures. Technically, jeera is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 1.33% to 9,132 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs. 485, indicating strengthening bullish participation. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 26,460, below which prices could test Rs. 26,120. Resistance is seen at Rs. 27,030, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs. 27,250.

Trading Ideas:

• Jeera trading range for the day is 26120-27250.

• Jeera prices gained amid continued tightness in nearby months with traders monitoring early sowing signals and festival demand.

• Farmers were reportedly holding back cumin stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing window.

• Improved overseas buying is important and export demand can absorb domestic supply during the lean season.

• In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 25577.95 Rupees dropped by 0.38 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views