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IPM Pulse: Growth recovers from weak Dec

* SUNP, CIPLA, TRP, IPCA and DRRD

outperform: Based on Jan’24 MAT IPM data, Sun retained its top spot with ~8% market share (ms). For the same period, JB Pharma has improved its rank by 2 places to 22nd . For the month of Jan ’24, from our coverage, IPCA, Cipla, SUNP, TRP and DRRD outperformed the IPM, growing 14.3%/9.6%/8.9%/8.6%/8.3% YoY respectively. ZYDUSLIF and LPC underperformed the IPM due to mixed performance of top brands for ZYDUSLIF and tepid performance of anti-diabetic segment for LPC. We expect chronic-focused players to continue to deliver double-digit growth. Among MNCs, Abbott performed well 11% growth driven by its top 15 brands (+14% YoY) with Udiliv (+33% YoY), Dupahston (+13%) and Cremaffin Plus (+31% YoY).

* Volumes grow 3.1% in MAT Jan’24:

IPM growth of 10.1% based on MAT Jan’24 was driven by price growth of 4.1%, NI growth of 2.9% and volume growth of 3.1%. Unit growth for the month of January was negative continuing the trend witnessed from the previous month. CIPLA reported positive volumes, thereby sustaining the recent monthly trend. Overall, we expect low double-digit growth for IPM in FY24 driven by price growth of 5-7%, NI of 2-3% and volume growth of 2-4%

* Cardiac growth sustains:

IPM’s top therapy Cardiac continued its recent outperformance, delivering 11.9% YoY growth in Jan’24, much ahead of the IPM. Chronic and Acute therapies reported 11%/6% YoY growth respectively during the month. Jan’24 growth was dragged by Respiratory, Anti-infectives, Ophthal and Derma. In the Anti-diabetic segment, SUNP has reported double-digit growth after Istamet base reset, Abbott reported low double-digit growth for its portfolio and Lupin reported mid single-digit growth. For the month, Sanofi’s Anti-diabetic segment declined as Lantus base reset continues. Ipca has consistently outperformed market growth in the Pain segment led by Zerodol franchise. While Derma reported 7.2% YoY growth in Jan‘24, TRP has consistently outperformed the segment with ~13% YoY growth this time. While Cardiac has grown ahead of IPM, SUNP underperformed in the segment this time around. DRRD’s growth is expected to pick up in 4Q post base reset (Cidmus, brand divestment, NLEM impact)..

* Jan’24 Top brands’ performance:

Cipla’s top 10 brands reported 13% YoY growth – Foracort - the largest brand in Jan’24 recorded 20% growth for the month. Zydus’ Lipaglyn and TRP’s Shelcal XT both maintained their double-digit trajectory, growing at 22%/31% YoY respectively. IPCA’s Zerodol franchise witnessed double-digit growth, led by Zerodol-SP (+18% YoY). GLXO’s top brand Augmentin reported a decline of 1% YoY, other key top brands viz. Calpol, T-bact and Betnovate-N, declined 9%/6%/25% respectively. JB Pharma’s Azmarda declined 58% YoY and DRRD’s Cidmus declined 48%. LPC’s sales in Ondero declined 48% YoY (patent expiry in Aug’23). Sun’s growth was driven by steady performance of Top 50 brands. Sanofi’s Lantus declined 5%YoY in Dec’23 (Toujeou grew +47%YoY).

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