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According to Emkay Wealth Management, considered as safe haven especially in times of geopolitical uncertainty, gold is expected to trend higher in the immediate term. Technically the price targets for gold remains at US$ 1990 and US$ 2030. Contrary to the usual trend of gold moving up significantly in the weaker dollar scenario, the safe haven status has assumed significance despite a strong dollar scenario.

The on-going Middle East conflict has impelled investors’ preference for Gold which has resulted in upward price mobility in the asset class. Gold prices have remained well supported at the US$1880 and US$1860 levels.

Taking a perspective before the situation of conflict arose, despite persistent inflation across all major economies, gold was not able to rise much because with inflation came extremely hawkish monetary policy which pushed interest rates higher. The rise in money market yields made currency yields attractive and this has resulted in gold moving sideways most of the time. But the more interesting fact is that gold prices have not broken through any key support levels convincingly in the last three months.

On the supply front, the expectation is that fresh supply from the mines as well as of used gold will be relatively high. We also expect continued demand from central banks. An easing monetary policy stance projected to come into effect in mid-2024 which will help bring an incremental value to the investors taking long positions from now.

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