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Rupee`s upward bias seen arrested, likely to track weak Asia FX
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The Indian rupee is likely to open lower on Tuesday, tracking the fall in other Asian currencies and on stalling upside momentum.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open at around 83.12-83.14 to the U.S. dollar compared to its previous close of 83.06.
The rupee climbed to a three-month high of 82.9050 on Monday, but was unable to sustain it and closed slightly lower.
"The rupee intraday turnaround and finishing at the day's low suggest to me that the momentum created from the move on Friday has been nullified," an FX trader at a bank said.
"I would think that a move back to the area of 83.30-83.35 is quite likely."
Asian currencies were mostly weaker on Tuesday, following push back from more Federal Reserve officials on rate cuts.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the Fed is not precommiting to cutting interest rates soon, and the jump in market expectations that it will do so is at odds with how the U.S. central bank functions.
Fed Cleveland President Loretta Mester said financial markets had got "a little bit ahead" of the central bank on when to expect interest rate cuts, the Financial Times reported on Monday.
Four policymakers have now sought to manage expectations around rate cuts, after the market priced in aggressive cuts next year following what was seen a dovish Fed policy outcome.
"The last few days of market action, before volumes dry up for Christmas, should continue to revolve around the “tug of war” between Fed officials trying to temper speculation and investors who have instead seen a validation of dovish bets from last week’s dot plot projections," ING Bank said in a note.
The Bank of Japan policy decision will be the key event for Asian currencies on Tuesday.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.20; onshore one-month forward premium at 8.50 paisa
** Dollar index slightly up at 102.50
** Brent crude futures up 0.2% at $78.1 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.94%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $1,230.7 mln worth of Indian shares on Dec. 15
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $311.6 mln worth of Indian bonds on Dec. 15
