Rupee likely to struggle on weak yuan, portfolio outflows worries
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The Indian rupee is likely to drop at open on Monday, pressed by the decline in the Chinese yuan and the possibility that election uncertainties may spur more portfolio outflows.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at 83.54-83.55 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 83.50 in the previous session. The rupee is within a spitting distance of the all-time low of 83.5750.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has likely been intervening to help the domestic currency.
"And yet again, we will be watching the RBI. The bias (on USD/INR) is higher and it will be on the RBI if they want to allow a further inch up," a FX trader at a bank said.
Portfolio outflows, particularly on the equity side, hassled the rupee for a large part of last week and its losses would have been larger if not for the likely RBI intervention.
Foreign investors took out more than $2 billion from Indian equities last week. Friday's outflow in excess of $250 million is the provisional data put out by the exchanges.
Asian currencies began the week on the defensive, with the offshore yuan weakening past 7.24 to the dollar and the Japanese yen dropping to nearly 156. Other Asian currencies were down 0.1% to 0.4%.
The U.S. consumer inflation print due Wednesday is the main data point this week. The last three inflation readings have been higher than expected, prompting investors to dial back expectations on how many rate cuts the Federal Reserve will deliver this year.
HSBC's US Inflation surprise index has been trending higher since January, which says a lot about why the market has re-priced the Fed," HSBC said in a note. It said the U.S. core consumer price index likely rose 0.3% month-on-month in April.
KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.64; onshore one-month forward premium at 7.75 paise ** Dollar index at 105.35
** Brent crude futures down 0.4% at $82.5 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.49%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $798.8mln worth of Indian shares on May 9
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $24.3mln worth of Indian bonds on May 9
