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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

• Rupee edged lower on Friday amid strong dollar and rise in US treasury yields. Sticky inflation numbers in US has supported the dollar to stay higher. But strong inflows into the domestic markets helped the rupee to trim its losses

• Rupee is likely to move in sideways range ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting this week. Last week’s sticky inflation numbers would support the Fed to hold the rates higher. Further, higher crude oil prices and weaker global risk sentiments would also weigh on the rupee. Meanwhile, strong inflows into the domestic markets could support the rupee to trim its losses. USDINR March likely to move in the band of 82.80-83.00. Only close above 83.00 it would test 83.10. On the flip side below 82.80 it would again test support at 82.60.

Euro and Pound Outlook

• Euro recovered from its one–week low and edged higher on Friday amid rise in European bond yields, with the 10-year German yields hitting 2-week highs. For today, EURUSD is likely to face stiff resistance near 1.09 level and move towards 1.0850 amid growing speculation that ECB would start cutting rates this summer to support the growth. EURINR March is likely to weaken towards 90.00, as long as it trades under 90.70.

• Pound also traded lower amid strong dollar. The pair is expected to face stiff resistance near 1.2760 and likely to slip towards 1.27 due to strong dollar and rising yields. We expect the pair to move in a very tight range ahead of this week’s monetary policy from Fed and BOE. GBPINR March is likely to move in the range of 105.50 and 106.20 ahead of the policy. Only a move below 105.50 it would slip towards 105.00 level.

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