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Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

* Rupee ended on a negative note on Friday amid strong dollar and risk aversion in the domestic markets. Market sentiments were hurt on fears that Iran might retaliate for an airstrike on its embassy in Damascus

* Rupee is likely to depreciate today amid strong dollar and risk aversion in the global markets. Dollar is gaining strength buoyed by escalating tension in Middle East and as hotter than expected inflation data from US pushed back bets for Federal Reserve first rate cut until later in this year. Additionally, rupee may slip on surge in crude oil prices after Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel stoked fears of wider regional conflict. Meanwhile, India’s CPI data showed inflation remained under RBI tolerance band. Inflation eased to 4.85% in March as compared to 5.09% in February. USDINR April likely to hold the support near 83.35 (10-Day EMA) and rise towards 83.65 level.

Euro and Pound Outlook

* Euro slipped by 0.82% on Friday amid strong dollar and risk aversion in the global markets. Further, euro slipped on dovish comments from ECB Governing Council members. Officials said they expect ECB to start cutting rate’s cuts in June. For today, EURUSD is likely to slip further towards 1.0600 level as long as it trades below 1.0700 levels amid pessimistic global market sentiments and divergence in monetary policy. US Fed is expected to delay rate cuts while ECB is expected to start cutting rates in June. EURINR April is likely to move further south towards 88.60 levels as long as it trades below 89.20 levels

*  Pound is expected to slip towards 1.2390 levels as long as it trades below 1.2470 levels amid strong dollar and risk aversion in the global markets. GBPINR April is likely to break the major support level of 104.10 level (200- Day EMA) and slip further towards 103.60 level. Pair may face immediate resistance near 104.10 level and then near 104.30 level

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